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NFL Teaser No Limit Play ( Play released for January 14, 2024 )
Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
Bet: 6 points teaser: Dallas Cowboys -1 and Buffalo Bills -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The Cowboys defense is most susceptible to the run and the Packers do have the ability to run the ball. However, the Packers have been far more favorable to the pass down the stretch and Love will be challenged against one of the league's elite pass rushes. Don't be fooled, the Dallas secondary is good but the key is the pass rush. Pressuring the quarterback has helped the Cowboys to the fifth-best pass defense in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys will get their shots against a young secondary. We don't think the Packers can slow down Lamb, not that anyone else has been able to either. Don't discount what should be a significant edge on special teams with a pair of rookie kickers in this game, Anders Carlson and Brandon Aubrey. Carlson has hit on just over 81% of his field goal attempts while Aubrey leads the NFL in points and field goal percentage at over 94%. Lastly, the Cowboys typically come out hot and are the highest-scoring first-half team in the NFL. The Packers are just 19th in first half scoring. If Dallas gets a big lead, here comes that pass rush. The Packers will have their day eventually, but not on Sunday.
The Bills have been given an authoritative 9-point spread at home. We get it and we're sure you do, too, since Orchard Park and the raucous fans of "Bills' Mafia" hardly creates a hospitable environment for a road team, even if it's against the savvy and resilient Pittsburgh Steelers. Despite some of their clunky performances, the Bills have also won 6 of their last 7 games and own a +8.9 point differential during that stretch. This is also the same Buffalo team that destroyed the Cowboys 31-10 at home. The biggest news entering this contest is that TJ Watt, who's led the NFL in sacks for three years in a row, will not play. The star defensive end is known for making game-changing plays in pivotal moments, a true x-factor for the black and yellow when they've needed it most. They'll be without his services this Sunday, and that's a major concern for the Pittsburgh defense. Last year we saw considerable drops in their defensive efficacy without Watt. It wouldn't be surprising to see that decline again, but the Steelers have new talent, like rookie cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who can elevate their level of play, and this game is set up for a slugfest between two hard-nosed defensive coaches. Needless to say, Mike Tomlin and his team aren't afraid of such atmospheres. Why will it be a slugfest? Well the weather will demand it. Western New York will be snowy and windy this Sunday, and that will likely force both offenses to rely on their rushing attack. Of course Josh Allen and the Bills' offense is equipped for these scenarios, since the enigmatic Allen can either blow by or truck through defenders with his legs when he needs to. On the other hand, the Steelers' rushing attack has stacked up 470 yards in the last three games, and it certainly seems like new starting QB Mason Rudolph is a stabilizer for his team. Discounting last week's game in the rain and muck at Baltimore, the Rudolph-led offense produced 865 yards in two prior games, against two squads fighting for a playoff berth. He hasn't thrown a single INT in 3 games, either, and he's completing 74.3% of his passes. Some of those marks are bound to regress this weekend, but it's fair to say that Steeler-nation and Rudolph's colleagues have faith in the six-year veteran. As much as we see avenues for the Steelers to keep this game close, we can't ignore how prolific the Bills can play at home. Buffalo's home/road splits clearly show they hit a different level at Orchard Park. Their points and yards go up, and their opponent's points and yards go down. And perhaps most importantly, Josh Allen's INT-rate drops from 3.6% to 2.5% in front of his fans. His TD-rate? You guessed it, 6.5% at home, 3.6% away. The Bills' recent run has given them confidence and momentum, and as steady as Rudolph and the Steelers' offense has been, their one-dimensional approach will be tough to sustain for four quarters in those elements. We're not as worried about Buffalo.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for January 13, 2024 )
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
When it comes to these Miami Dolphins, there’s one stat that is more telling than any other. Courtesy of Sheil Kapadia from The Athletic: the Dolphins finished the regular season with a 1-5 record and a -91 point differential against playoff teams. Only the Giants and Commanders had a worse point differential against playoff teams. The Dolphins, put simply, are paper tigers. They captivated the league early in the season with their motion offense and razzle-dazzle with Tyreek Hill, but that style of play shrunk against good teams in high-leverage situations. We believe that trend is very likely continue on Saturday night in Arrowhead against the Chiefs. The Dolphins are incredibly banged up in the first place. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel was placed on injured reserve this week. Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliot all missed practice on Wednesday. Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are already lost for the season. The Dolphins had issues dialing up pressure to begin with, and with the loss of Van Ginkel against the Bills last weekend it’s all starting to feel a bit insurmountable for Miami in this spot. On top of all that, the National Weather Service is forecasting a wind chill between -10 and -20 degrees. The Dolphins are 0-9 straight up since 2017 in games played where the temps are below 40 degrees. This should be a game in which Kansas City leans on its very good rushing attack with Isaiah Pacheco. The Chiefs have essentially been winning games in grind-it-out styles this year, so the conditions are quite conducive to a Chiefs victory on Saturday night. Look for Mahomes and the Chiefs to get it done and cover the -4.5 spread.
CFP National Championship Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for January 8, 2024 )
Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines
Bet: Michigan Wolverines -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This is the game you've all been waiting for. The 2024 CFP National Championship features two surprising yet intriguing title contenders in Washington and Michigan. Michigan has endured criticism stemming from its sign-stealing scandal, as well as skepticism of its talent level due to its two previous losses in the College Football Playoff. Washington has also drawn its fair share of criticism, as it won several games by the slimmest of margins. Michigan has been knocking on the door of greatness for three seasons but wasn't able to break through in a playoff game until Monday night's win over Alabama. The Wolverines' strength is their defense, which put its nastiness on display again in the Rose Bowl by limiting Bama to a season-low 288 yards. The Wolverines sacked Tide QB Jalen Milroe six times -- four in the first half -- and came up with the game-winning stop on the last play of the contest. That performance was emblematic of the dominance displayed all season by a unit that entered the CFP ranked No. 1 nationally in total defense. While both programs undoubtedly carry chips on their shoulders, no one can argue that these teams aren't legit. A lot of pre-game commentary has focused on the matchup between Michigan's bruising ground game and Washington's inferior defense. While bottling up Corum is priority number one for the Huskies, it's worth noting that Texas and Oregon (twice) gashed them on the ground. We think Blake Corum is going to go off in this game. Not only will he have the ability to do so given Washington’s porous run defense, but we think him having a big role is a prerequisite for a win. In games against strong offenses, the best way to defend them is to keep them off the field. We think that means we could see Michigan truly get back to its identity and rely on the ground game for some long, methodical drives. Also, this will be Corum’s final collegiate game, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him take on a huge workload. The Huskies are gonna score its points, after all, this is going to be the best offense Michigan will have seen all year. However, Michigan’s defense is strong enough to limit the damage. The Wolverine offense is going to be the key. Washington’s defense is good, but it’s not at the same level of Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa or Alabama. The Wolverines will be able to run the ball like they want to and put points on the board. The Wolverines showed that despite mistakes and stalling drives, they are able to do enough to win games. This team is just too solid on both sides of the ball to let any game get away from them. Blake Corum proclaimed before the season that it was natty or bust, so Michigan comes out firing on all cylinders, executes much better than it did against Alabama, and wins, 37-24.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for January 6, 2024 )
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Bet: Baltimore Ravens +3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Let’s go back in time to 2019. It’s Ravens vs Steelers in the final week of the season. The game is in Baltimore. The Ravens have locked up the top spot in the AFC and decide to rest 7 starters, including soon-to-be MVP Lamar Jackson. The Steelers, on a backup quarterback, have to win the game to keep their playoff hopes alive. The game means nothing to the Ravens and everything to the Steelers. So what happens? The Steelers are routed, 28-10, and miss the playoffs, even though the game on paper meant nothing to the Ravens. We are expecting history to repeat itself on Sunday. The Steelers, led by a backup quarterback, have to beat the Ravens to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Ravens have locked up the top spot in the AFC and are resting soon-to-be-named MVP Lamar Jackson, and others. We will use history as our guide in this game. The Ravens won 24 straight preseason games before this season. It’s not just because they care more than other teams; it’s because their depth is better than most other teams. Starting quarterback Tyler Huntley has started playoff games, he nearly led the Ravens to a massive upset of the Bengals in the postseason a year ago. This is also not a random non-divisional game, either, it’s a home game against the Steelers, and you keep them out of the playoffs with a win. The starters may not be in, but there should still be a great effort, especially at home. We’ll take the Ravens to cover at the very least.
Rose Bowl Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for January 1st, 2024 )
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Michigan Wolverines
Bet: Alabama Crimson Tide +3 bought half point/-125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Despite the on-going drama surrounding the Michigan football program, the Wolverines finished the season with a perfect 13-0 record after being crowned Big Ten champions for the 3rd consecutive season. They enter the College Football Playoff as the top overall seed, and will play in the Rose Bowl against the SEC Champion Alabama Crimson Tide who earned their 8th playoff appearance in 10 years of the 4-team system. This line opened around Michigan -2 nearly a month ago and has not moved much more than 0.5 point either way, so this figures to be a tightly contested game between 2 evenly-matched, high-powered teams. Michigan’s defensive numbers are outstanding. The Wolverines finished the season 4th in opponent adjusted defensive efficiency per BCFToys, leading the nation in unadjusted metrics such as opposing drive efficiency and points yielded per drive in non-garbage time against FBS opponents. However, it is hard to grasp how good Michigan’s defense truly is given a relatively light strength of schedule compared to the other playoff teams. For reference, Jeff Sagarin ranks Michigan’s strength of schedule 56th, while Alabama, Texas and Washington all finished the season in the top 20. The Wolverines played 3 top 30 offenses per adjusted efficiency, but none of those teams (Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland) have quarterbacks with the dual-threat capabilities Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe possesses. Down the stretch, Alabama’s offense improved dramatically compared to its early season performances. The Tide finished the season top 15 in PPA per play, standard down PPA and havoc allowed in non-garbage time over the last 7 weeks due in large part to Milroe’s rushing capabilities, so don’t be surprised if he evades pressures and converts a few third downs with his legs in this matchup. On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines could struggle with the size, speed and athleticism of Alabama’s defense. Despite their manageable schedule, they were just 55th in PPA per play, 42nd in offensive success rate and 122nd in explosiveness in non-garbage time since Week 8. Furthermore, Michigan’s offensive line struggled at times down the stretch, ranking outside the top 45 in stuff rate allowed and outside the top 90 in line yards in the last 7 weeks. Without the line’s best run-blocker in Zak Zinter and a month to prepare for Michigan’s rushing attack, Alabama’s front 7 should be able to fill gaps, limit the running lanes and generate havoc. For what it’s worth, JJ McCarthy has 7 turnover-worthy plays in 96 dropbacks under pressure and could end up committing a crucial turnover much like in last year’s playoff game against TCU when he threw 2 picks that were returned for touchdowns. Alabama presents a challenge that most of Michigan’s previous opponents could not. With Milroe leading the way, the Tide are capable of sustaining and finishing drives. Defensively, they have the talent to overwhelm McCarthy and the line. Give us the Tide.
NFL No Limit Plays ( Plays released for December 31, 2023 )
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
Bet: Baltimore Ravens -3/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Miami Dolphins have not been great when playing strong opponents on the road. They have been dealt road losses by the Bills and Eagles. They were also hit with a loss by the Titans earlier this month. The Baltimore Ravens continue to shine, winning five consecutive games including a dominating 33-19 road win against the 49ers, and are motivated to earn the #1 seed in the AFC. Furthermore, the Ravens have the superior defense, and if there is one defense that can contain Miami, it’s the Ravens. Miami leads the NFL in passing yards but the Ravens have a stifling pass defense that is holding opponents to an average of 194 passing yards per game. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing yards. Lamar Jackson posted 318 passing yards and 119 rushing yards against the Dolphins last season. While Miami's offense is to be recokened with, Baltimore has taken down similarly elite offenses this season, from Detroit to San Francisco, to several others. The Ravens can control the game with their rushing attack thanks to Lamar Jackson and the Dolphins are well-known for crumbling in December. Baltimore has the momentum, as they are 9-1 in their last ten and have a chance to secure the #1 seed and give their star players a chance to rest next week and the following week. The Ravens have covered the spread in eight of their last ten games against the Dolphins, and we expect this trend to continue.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Tampa Bay Bucs are rolling right now going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. They have scored an average of 28.5 PPG during their 4-game winning streak as Baker Mayfield is playing the best football of his career. The Bucs are also getting healthy on defense which is a big reason for their resurgence. Overall, they are one of the healthiest teams in the league. The Saints just cannot be trusted with their dink and dunk offense and leaky defense. We already saw this matchup once with the Bucs winning 26-9 in New Orleans in dominant fashion. They had 353 yards of offense and held the Saints to just 197 total yards while forcing 3 turnovers. We like the price we are getting on the Bucs at home as only 2.5-point favorites as they'll be hungry to win this game and clinch the division. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS after playing its last game on the road this year. Take Tampa Bay.
Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears
Bet: Chicago Bears -2.5/-115 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
We have an NFC matchup here between the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears. Don’t look now, but the Chicago Bears have won 4 of the last 6 games and Justin Fields is looking like the quarterback the Bears expected him to be. As for the Falcons, they are coming off a huge blowout win against the Colts but this week they are on the road, where they typically struggle. Atlanta has a 2-5 record away from the dome and we expect their road problems to continue. This is the perfect letdown spot for the Falcons as they are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league and they just gave the Panthers their second win of the season a few weeks ago. We know that was a divisional game, but if you lose to the worst team in the league something’s not right. Since returning from injury, Justin Fields has thrown 4 touchdown passes and ran for 2 more. He is looking a lot more accurate and is actually looking down the field for deep passes. He has been much more comfortable and that is going to open up the playbook for the Bears more. He has two playmakers in Cole Kmet and DJ Moore who can make big plays for him when needed. If the Bears can get the run game going early it could be a long night for the Falcons defense. Khalil Herbert just had a huge game against the Cardinals and the Bears will have a heavy workload for him again, along with Roschon Johnson. We know backing the Bears the last few seasons hasn’t been ideal but we are confident that they are finally living up to their potential. Take Chicago to win by at least a field goal.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts
Bet: Indianapolis Colts -4/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Indianapolis Colts off a 29-10 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week. They have actually been on the road for five of their last seven games overall. In their two home games during this span they were dominant, beating the Steelers 30-13 and the Bucs 27-20. The Colts have everything to play for right now tied for first place in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Texans. They will be max motivated. They just got RB Jonathan Taylor back from injury last week, and more reinforcements should be on the way this week with top WR Michael Pittman and backup RB Zack Moss both expected to return to action as both returned to practice this week. It's time to 'sell high' on the Las Vegas Raiders. They caught a Chargers team that quit on their head coach two weeks ago in their 63-21 victory. Then last week it took nothing short of a miracle for them to beat the Chiefs 20-14 outright as double-digit underdogs. They celebrated that win over the Chiefs like it was their Super Bowl, and they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Colts this week. They are also on a short week after playing on Christmas Monday. The Raiders beat the Chiefs despite managing just 62 total passing yards for the game. They had all 62 passing yards in the first quarter and had zero passing yards each of the next three quarters. They scored two defensive touchdowns in a span of seven seconds, which is very fluky. They only managed two field goals against the Chiefs on offense. Aidan O'Connell has been one of the worst QB's in the NFL since taking over, and we don't think he can keep up with the Colts in this one. The Colts are averaging 27.0 points per game, 375.9 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play at home this season. Gardner Minshew will be very pleased to have his full compliment of weapons this week after he didn't have them against the Falcons on the road last week. The Raiders are averaging just 14.7 points per game, 236.9 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play on the road this season. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a big upset win as a double-digit underdog. They are getting outscored by 13.6 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Colts Sunday.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl No Limit Play ( Play released for December 30, 2023 )
Toledo Rockets vs Wyoming Cowboys
Bet: Wyoming Cowboys -3/-125 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
Despite coming up short in the MAC Championship Game, the Toledo Rockets had an exceptional season, winning 11 games. As such, it makes the trip to the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, and it looks for consecutive bowl victories for the first time since 2014-15. Toledo topped Liberty in the Boca Raton Bowl last season in an entertaining affair. Unfortunately for the Rockets, however, they’ll have to play on without starting QB Dequan Finn. He threw for 2,651 yards, 22 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, while running for 563 yards and 7 more scores, but he hit the transfer portal looking to step into a role at a higher-profile program at Baylor. Leading rusher Peny Boone, who rolled for 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns, also followed him out the door. The cupboard isn’t totally bare for head coach Jason Candle, but it isn’t completely stocked, either. On the other side, Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl announced his retirement, so look for the Cowboys to send the storied coach out on a high note. It’s a redemption story for the Cowboys, too, as they lost to Ohio in last year’s installment of this game. Offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left for North Dakota State, but the Cowboys don’t have any notable player omissions from either side of the ball. This Wyoming team was a fun one to watch this season, and we look for it to send Bohl out with a bang.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 30, 2023 )
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
Let’s state the obvious first. This is a Dallas Cowboys spot every which way. After dominating at home for a good month, they went on the road two weeks in a row (at Buffalo and at Miami) and were winless. This, of course, is always the narrative with the Cowboys in recent history. There is, of course, the chance that the Lions can get the top playoff spot in the NFC, but they’d need to win out and also need the 49ers to lose out, which just isn’t happening given their remaining schedule. The Cowboys haven’t scored less than 30 at home all season long, and it’s hard to imagine this Lions defense which did just get lit up by Nick Mullens last week, being able to slow down that attack. We don`t think the Lions will be able to match the output, and this is still the same defense that allowed the Chargers to put up 38, the Packers to score 29, and the Saints to get 28. The Lions are also coming off an emotional win over the Vikings that clinched their first division title in 30 years, so it’d be natural to came out a little flat Saturday, even under the lights of primetime. If that happens, the Lions will be in for a long night trying to dig out of a hole against a relentless Cowboys pass rush and a team that hasn’t lost at home since Week 1 of the 2022 season. The Lions don’t match up well with Prescott and Dallas’ dangerous passing game anyways, so we will take the Cowboys to cover the spread.
Bowls No Limit Plays ( Plays released for December 29, 2023 )
Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones
Bet: Memphis Tigers +10.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Memphis Tigers take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the Liberty Bowl. Memphis will be at home for this one after finishing the season 9-3 and fourth in the American conference. They have had a great season, only losing to Missouri, Tulane and SMU. It will be their 9th bowl game in the last 10 years but even with a win, they will only be 4-5 in postseason play in those 10 years. On the other side is Iowa State, who finished the year 7-5 after starting out 3-3. They lost to Ohio in the early season and many people wrote them off but they won 5 of their last 7 to get bowl-eligible, including beating a top-25-ranked Kansas State team. This will be the Cyclones’ 6th bowl game in the last 7 years. These teams have been 2 winning programs over the last 10 years and they are looking to get a win in this bowl game and finish this season strong to spark next season. Memphis has had an explosive offense this season. They average a 7th-best 39.7 points per game and a 25th-best 459.6 yards per game. That top-25 offense is led by quarterback Seth Henigan, who is expected to play in this game. Memphis should have most of their skill players for this matchup. Iowa State averages a measly 363.6 yards and 26.3 points per game. The Cyclones only allow on average 360 yards and 21.5 points per game. That could slow this Memphis offense but with their firepower, we don’t think it slows them enough for the Cyclones to cover the spread. This is the first time this season that Iowa State has been a double-digit favorite. The Cyclones have barely blown out opponents this season. With their top running backs El Sanders and Cartevious Norton out for the transfer portal, the Cyclones will turn to their freshman running back and freshman quarterback to help Iowa State win this bowl game. We don’t see these fresh faces leading Iowa State to victory in a shootout. Memphis will be putting up points in this game as they are the home team. The Tigers are averaging almost 40 points per game. Seth Henigan will be throwing passes all over the field in this game.
Clemson Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats
Bet: Kentucky Wildcats +4/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Kentucky running back Ray Davis will be suiting up for the Gator Bowl despite recently declaring for the NFL draft, which is massive for the Wildcats in this matchup. The 1,000-yard rusher has 20 TDs this season and is the focal point of the Kentucky offense, which should find success against a depleted Clemson front seven. The Tigers are expected to be without 5 starters on defense, including stud LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., who leads the team in stops forced. Kentucky, on the other hand, is 11th in rushing explosiveness behind a fully healthy offensive line that ranks top 50 in tackles for loss allowed. These were two solid defensive squads throughout the regular season, but the Wildcats showed weakness at times against the pass, ranking 91st in passing efficiency defense. However, we don’t trust Cade Klubnik and the Clemson passing game to keep up with Kentucky’s explosive play potential. Furthermore, there are projected to be 13 mph winds with gusts up to 29 mph and a chance of rain during the game, so we expect Clemson to lean on the one-two punch of RB Phil Mafah and RB Will Shipley. Kentucky can certainly hold its own against the run, limiting opponents to 113.9 rush yards per game (25th in FBS) and recording a solid 6.1 tackles for loss per game (39th in FBS) throughout the regular season. With all things considered, we have faith in Kentucky to keep this one interesting and will be taking them to cover.
Oregon State Beavers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Bet: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -6/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Oregon State Beavers will square off in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas on Friday, but these teams will look very different than they did during the season. Oregon State will be without its starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and its backup quarterback Adian Chiles for this game, in addition to being without its top tight end Jack Velling, second-leading receiver Anthony Gould, 3 starting offensive linemen, its leading tackler, a couple of starting defensive backs and its place kicker. The Beavers could also be without starting running back Damien Martinez, who is currently doubtful due to legal trouble. Notre Dame has its fair share of missing pieces, but most of its defensive stars are expected to play against Oregon State, including Jack Kiser, Howard Cross, Xavier Watts, JD Bertrand and Javontae Jean-Baptiste. With almost a full-strength defense, Notre Dame should be able to limit what will be an extremely inexperienced Beaver offense outside of now-starting quarterback Ben Gulbranson who played in 10 games in 2022 and threw for just 9 touchdowns and less than 1,500 yards. We are not sure where the points will come from in this game for Oregon State, especially considering Notre Dame led the country in PPA per play allowed and yielded the 3rd-fewest scoring opportunities in non-garbage time since Week 8. The Fighting Irish are missing pieces but their defense should be enough to help them come up with a win and cover in this contest.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 28, 2023 )
New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns
Bet: Cleveland Browns -7/-125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Jets squeaked by the Commanders last week and were incredibly fortunate to do so. Granted, this is as high a price as you’ll have to pay to back the Browns, but it’s warranted. The Jets are rolling Trevor Siemien out there. Do we really believe the 30-point performance is something they can duplicate against the Browns defense, let alone in Cleveland? Even still, with 30 points, they averaged less than 5 yards per play. The answer is a resounding no. Conversely, everything about the Browns feels like it’s solid. This is now several weeks in a row with Joe Flacco at quarterback that they’ve gotten the job done. They covered the number against the Jaguars, they got past the Bears, and then they covered the number again comfortably against the Texans last week. This is a team that’s still fighting to make the playoffs, so it seems incredibly unlikely that they’ll turn in a dud performance against a Jets team on its fourth quarterback of the season. We just can’t visualize a scenario where the Jets offense trots into Cleveland and has any relative success moving the football. Cleveland, on the other hand, is settling into a rhythm with Amari Cooper off a career day and other weapons on the perimeter, like tight end David Njoku. It feels pricey, but it’s still a good number based on where these two teams are trending.
Teaser ( Play released for December 28, 2023 )
New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
SMU vs. Boston College
Bet: 6.5 points teaser: Cleveland Browns -1 and SMU -4/-130 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
Motivation is everything, and the Browns have far more reasons to triumph in this one than the Jets do. Cleveland can clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win here, and will not want to wait until next week as they have a divisional road matchup with the Bengals. On paper, it should be much easier to win at home over the Jets than to win on the road in Cincinnati. Expecting the coaching staff to be prepared and pull out their best stuff to get a win here. The Jets do not know is Wilson or Siemian will start in this one, the indecision hurts preparation, and neither quarterback will be prepared for this Cleveland defense. Myles Garrett and company bring a lot of pressure on quarterbacks, and they are the best defense in terms of yardage in the NFL. The Jets only rank 30th in scoring, and will have trouble putting up points against this top ranked defense. Flacco has been amazing lately, he has thrown for over 350 yards in each of his last two games and has quickly formed chemistry with Amari Cooper. This one means more to the Browns, Cleveland gets back to the playoff in front of their home crowd here.
Things look to be swinging SMU's way as the Fenway Bowl approaches. The weather is unseasonably mild in Boston which should play well for the Texas-based Mustangs in December. The Mustangs have also had a month to prepare QB Jennings for this game after he was thrown to the wolves in the upset win over Tulane in the AAC Title game. Jennings has a ton of weapons to utilize in this game and should have plenty of time to do so against a Boston College defense that has had trouble generating pressure on the quarterback. He should also benefit from a ground game that should be able to rip off chunks of yards against an Eagles' defense that ranks just 124th in the country against the run. Boston College will be the de-facto home team given the proximity of Fenway Park to Boston College but we don't expect that to be a huge advantage for a team that went just 3-4 at home this season. The Mustangs have a chip on their shoulder in this game, looking to take out a team from a Power-Five conference and solidify themselves as a Top-25 team with a big win on Thursday.
Pop-Tarts Bowl No Limit Play ( Play released for December 28, 2023 )
NC State vs. Kansas State
Bet: NC State +2/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Wolfpack have won five straight games and two straight road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 26 or more points in their last three games. They don’t throw the ball a lot but they have a very good ground game. The Wildcats aren’t very good at defending the run and they gave up close to 200 rushing yards per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Wolfpack in this game. The Wildcats have been hit pretty hard by the transfer portal and opt outs, especially losing Will Howard, who has 24 TDs and 10 picks and also 354 yards rushing. They also lost their top two receivers in Sinnott and Brooks. But, the Wolfpack are great against the run and they did a good job defending the pass in their last three games, holding opponents under 215 passing yards per game. They do a good job of getting to the quarterback and they’re also one of the best teams in the country when it comes to forcing turnovers, so expect them to keep Kansas State’s offense in check. Go with NC State to cover the spread.
Texas Bowl No Limit Play ( Play released for December 27, 2023 )
Texas A&M Aggies vs Oklahoma State
Bet: Oklahoma State -3/-125 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Texas A&M has been hit hard by the transfer portal bug. 12 Aggie starters are in the portal and won’t be suiting up for the Texas Bowl. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State only has 3 players gone to the portal, none of which were starters. The biggest key for the Pokes is Doak Walker-winning RB Ollie Gordon II, who recently announced he will be returning for the 2024 season. Texas A&M had a solid run defense this season, but they haven’t faced anyone nearly as talented and shifty as Gordon is out of the backfield. Not to forget, the majority of A&M’s defenders in this game will be 2nd-stringers. At the time of writing, Gordon hasn’t 100% confirmed he will be playing in the game, but after announcing his return we would be shocked if he didn’t. The sophomore ranks 2nd in the country with 124.2 rush yards per game and we expect him to run rampant against a depleted Aggie defense. Outside of Gordon, QB Alan Bowman has managed to put together a respectable season after some early-season controversy. His main area of concern is turning the ball over, but this matchup serves him well; Texas A&M ranks 120th in FBS with only 11 turnovers forced this season. The Cowboys should be able to operate smoothly as per usual, whereas Texas A&M has an interesting coaching situation on their hands. Jimbo Fisher will be watching this one from his couch with endless bags of cash, but interim head coach Elijah Robinson will continue to hold the reins for the bowl game despite being hired by Syracuse as a defensive coordinator. It might be the Texas Bowl, but the Aggies have too much going on behind the scenes for us to have any faith in them to top a solid Oklahoma State squad. We`ll take the Cowboys to cover.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 25, 2023 )
Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers
Bet: San Francisco 49ers -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
This number jumps off the page, doesn’t it? Wow. The team atop the AFC is a sizable underdog to the 49ers. But here’s the thing: they should be. In fact, any team playing a fully healthy 49ers team in San Francisco is going to be a 6-point underdog (or more). Baltimore deserves credit for the season it’s putting together. The wins they’ve picked up along the way (Bengals with Joe Burrow, Rams, Jaguars, Lions) stack up against pretty much anyone else in the NFL. But this 49ers team when it has all of its components on offense is almost unbeatable. There’s no flaw. When Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brock Purdy and Trent Williams are all in the lineup, the 49ers are 18-0 (including playoffs) going back to last season. They’ve never lost and there’s a good reason for that. If you focus on taking McCaffrey out of the game, Purdy will slice you up with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk (one of the most underrated receivers in football). If you focus on taking out the receiving corps, the 49ers will run the ball at will. There are just too many high-functioning pieces of this offense, too many holes to plug, where even if you successfully take out one part of it, something else emerges. It’s why they’re the rightful Super Bowl favorite. The Ravens’ defense will be up for the challenge, and it’s among the best the 49ers have seen this year, but stepping in front of this San Francisco train is simply just not something I’m interested in doing. They’ve picked their number all year long regardless of opponent and we don’t really see that changing against a Ravens offense that was fairly unremarkable against a much worse Jags defense, even in a win, last week. The 49ers should keep it rolling on Monday night, further sending the message to the rest of the league that they can’t be stopped.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 24, 2023 )
Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins
Bet: Miami Dolphins -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Push
There has been a lot made about the fact that the Miami Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record this season. But all three of their losses against teams with a winning record came on the road. We think that is keeping this line suppressed, and there's value on the Dolphins, who will most definitely be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week to prove their doubters wrong. We were impressed with how the Dolphins responded last week from their loss to the Titans on Monday Night Football where they blew a 14-point lead in the final two minutes. Money poured in against them last week against the Jets. They promptly made a statement with a 30-0 victory while holding the Jets to just 103 total yards and forcing four turnovers. A big reason we are on the Dolphins is because they have a better defense than the Cowboys. This Miami defense has allowed 21 points or fewer in six of its last seven games and an average of just 13.9 points per game in those seven games. We've seen this Dallas defense exposed in recent weeks allowing 35 points to Seattle and 31 to Buffalo, including 266 rushing yards to the Bills. Their defense will get exposed again this week against the best offense in the NFL. Miami's high-powered offense gets more attention than the defense, and for good reason. The Dolphins average 31.5 points per game, 414 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season. They only allow 293 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play, outgaining opponents by 121 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play. To compare, Dallas is only outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play on the season. The Dolphins average 140 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry and will take advantage of Dallas' weak run defense that was exposed by the Bills last week. The Dolphins got good injury news Thursday when WR Tyreke Hill, RB De'Von Achane, T Terron Armstead, C Liam Eichenberg, TE Durham Smythe, CB Xavien Howard, SS DeShon Elliott, LB Andrew Van Ginkel and S Javon Holland all got limited practices in, which is a good sign they are all going to play. Money came in against the Dolphins because of these injuries, but we are not concerned about it after Thursday's practice report. The injuries for the Cowboys are more concerning. They could be without both LT Tyron Smith and RG Zach Martin, who both didn't practice on Thursday and have to be more doubtful than probable. DT Jonathan Hankins also missed practice Thursday and is more on the doubtful side of things. The Cowboys are hurting in the trenches, and the Bills exposed them with that being the case last week. The Cowboys are 1-3 against teams with a winning record with their lone win coming at home against a depleted, tired Eagles team. They are 0-3 against winning teams on the road and have been absolutely blasted 42-10 by the 49ers and 31-10 by the Bills. This is a tough travel week for them having to fly home from Buffalo and then back to Miami. This is a tired Dallas team that won't handle it very well. We expect Miami to go off as the favorite and the Dolphins are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season. Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games with a total of 45.5 or higher. Mike McCarthy is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 6-plus points per game as the coach of Dallas. The Cowboys are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games on grass. Bet the Dolphins Sunday.
NFL Game of the Week No Limit Play ( Play released for December 21, 2023 )
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams
Bet: Los Angeles Rams -4/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
After a rocky start to the season, the Saints have somewhat stabilized and have put themselves in a position to win their division. There’s a lot on the line for both teams in this one. If the Saints win, their chances of making the playoffs go from 41 percent to 71 percent. The Rams are currently sitting at 52 percent to make the postseason. In this one, though, we have to roll with the hot hand. This offense has been humming since their bye in Week 10; they’ve scored 28 or more in 4 straight games. The Saints’ defense is certainly formidable, but without Marshon Lattimore (who’s likely to miss), the Rams will likely find a way to exploit the secondary with either Cooper Kupp or Puka Nucua. This Rams offense is also clearly different when Kyren Williams is in the lineup. On the Saints’ side, they’re just not whole. Chris Olave may return from injury but it’s hard to trust his availability week to week. Stud offensive lineman Ryan Ramcyzk also didn’t practice on Tuesday. The Saints will also likely be without Michael Thomas. It is tempting to take the 4 points with New Orleans, but we just don’t think they’re whole enough at this point with their banged-up personnel. It’s one thing to beat up on the Panthers and Giants, but this is a big step up in competition. We could get involved here with a healthier Saints team, but as is, we have to roll with the hot hand at home in Los Angeles. We’ll take the Rams -3.
Famous Toastery Bowl No Limit Play ( Play released for December 18, 2023 )
Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion (ODU)
Bet: Western Kentucky +7 buy half point/-125 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The Hilltoppers have won three of their last four games and two straight road games. They played well offensively this season, scoring more than 29 points per game. They don’t run the ball much, but they have the 17th-best passing attack in the country. The Monarchs play well against the run, but their pass defense is one of the worst in the country, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Hilltoppers in this game. The Monarchs have won two straight games. They aren’t very good offensively, scoring a little more than 22 points per game. Their passing game isn’t very good, and their ground game is just a little bit better. The Hilltoppers boast a 5-0 record in games exceeding 30 points. Considering Old Dominion's recent defensive hangups, allowing an average of 26.3 points per game in their last three outings, the opportunity for Western Kentucky to exploit these vulnerabilities to attack the Monarchs through the air and on the ground with All-American linebacker Jason Henderson sidelined due to injury, ODU may face difficulties containing the Hilltoppers' offensive onslaught. The Hilltoppers weren’t great against the run this season, but they played well down the stretch and held their last three opponents under 125 rushing yards per game, so expect them to stack the box and force the Monarchs to beat them through the air, which isn’t going to happen. Go with Western Kentucky to cover the spread.
NFL Invincible Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 17, 2023 )
Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills
Bet: Buffalo Bills ML/-125 ( sportsbook: PointsBet ) Winner
The Dallas Cowboys are rolling right now, and we suspect Dak Prescott and his teammates are feeling as good as they ever have heading into Week 15. Coming off its fifth straight win, Dallas is one step closer to stealing the NFC East crown. The Cowboys decimated a tired Eagles team in a 33-13 blowout win at home last Sunday night, elevating their chances at the NFC’s #1 seed and cementing themselves as the league’s hottest team not named the 49ers. Head coach Mike McCarthy had the world’s biggest smile on the sidelines as the game concluded. Dallas is now 7-0 straight up at home, 6-1 ATS and will look to take a white-hot offense on the road against a desperate team that is playing its best football all season. Of course, we would be remiss to not recognize the Cowboys’ regression when they are away from AT&T Stadium. As road underdogs, the Cowboys are 0-2 ATS, and they are 3-3 ATS on the road overall. Amazingly, despite their recent success they will be ‘dogs on Sunday at Orchard Park. We don’t disagree with that, actually. The Bills outlasted the Chiefs in a controversial win at Arrowhead in Week 14, but all that matters is the end result. Josh Allen threw 1 interception, but for the most part he has played brilliantly since new offensive coordinator Joe Brady started calling Buffalo’s plays 4 weeks ago. The Bills’ defense has been aggressive and hard-hitting, too, permitting just 17 points to Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense on the road. The Bills have outgained their opponents by an average of 104 yards per game in their last 4 contests. The difference in this game is desperation and the fact that Dallas is no longer at home. Sure, the Cowboys are a juggernaut when competition comes to their multi-billion dollar stadium, but not so much in enemy territory. Orchard Park is one of the toughest places to play in all of sports, with raucous fans as loyal and menacing as any audience. Dallas eked by the Chargers in L.A. McCarthy’s club smashed the Giants and Panthers, 2 of the league’s worst teams, in NJ and NC. But the ‘Boys looked like a different team against better operations. San Francisco crushed Dallas at home, the Eagles soared late and beat them by 5 points and even the lowly Cardinals beat them in Phoenix back in Week 3. If this was at AT&T Stadium, maybe we would differently, but we can’t take Dallas as a short underdog with Buffalo playing this well and dying to earn a playoff berth. Buffalo is 23-5 SU in their last 28 games played on a Sunday when playing at home. Dallas has not won back to back games since 1982 when playing as an underdog of 2 points or less. Weather could also be a factor however as the current forecast has game-time temperatures in the high-40s but there is a coin-flip chance of precipitation while the winds are projected from the south-southeast at 15 miles an hour gusting up to 20-25 miles an hour. That could wreak havoc with the kicking game, especially for the visitors, as Highmark Stadium has been a house of horrors for opposing kickers over the years. Buffalo gained confidence with their win over Kansas City on the road last week coming out of the bye and they have been good at home this season. Buffalo desperately needs this game to keep pace in the AFC, so look for Allen to lead the Bills to a tough victory at home.
NFL Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 16, 2023 )
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -3/-110 ( sportsbook: PointsBet ) Push
Don’t look back now, but the Cincinnati Bengals are back in business and in the playoff hunt with back-to-back wins with Jake Browning under center. They shocked the Jaguars as 10-point underdogs 2 weeks ago and they just completely dominated the Indianapolis Colts this past Sunday. Those are 2 playoff teams and the Colts were on a 4-game winning streak prior to losing to the Bengals. The Vikings are coming off a 3-0 victory against the Raiders and it took Josh Dobbs to get benched for them to score the only points of the game and get the win. Minnesota’s offense has been having a hard time scoring points. In the last 2 games the Vikes have only scored a combined 13 points total points, that’s not going to cut it against the Bengals. To make matters worse, they will be starting Nick Mullens for his first start of the season. The good news for MIN is that Justin Jefferson announced he will be playing on Saturday after sustaining an injury in his return last week. The Vikings should struggle to put points up on the board and this game probably won’t be close. They are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to running the ball and their passing game hasn’t looked good in recent games. The Bengals don’t have to worry about the Vikings beating them on the ground, so expect them to pressure Mullens all game and force him to make costly mistakes. The Bengals have a lethal offense even without Joe Burrow under center. Rookie running back Chase Brown has provided a spark the last few weeks and is the perfect 1-2 punch with Joe Mixon. Let’s not forget about the playmakers on the outside the Bengals have in Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. They are all a problem for opposing defenses and it makes it hard to cover all of them at the same time. Expect Cincinnati to get a convincing win on Saturday.
Myrtle Beach Bowl No Limit Play ( Play released for December 16, 2023 )
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio U
Bet: Georgia Southern -3/-115 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
Ohio will definitely have most of its players on defense with the exception of second leading tackler Keye Thompson, but the Ohio offense is completely decimated with a senior quarterback that has just 112 career yards passing and that same quarterback is also the leading active rusher for the Bobcats. The Georgia Southern offense comes into the game ranked 27th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 34th in yards per game this year. They are also one of the highest passing volume offenses in college football. They rank first in the nation in passes per game, while ranking 11th in the nation in passing yards per game. The offense is led by Davis Brin. He comes into the game with 3,441 yards passing while completing 38 of 514 attempts this year. Brin has thrown 16 interceptions though, with 29 turnover worthy passes. Brin has had some huge games this year, such as his 344 yards and four scores against Ball State/ Still, he has some rough games, such as his four-interception game against Wisconsin. In the receiving game, it is Khaleb Hood who leads the way. He comes in with 93 receptions on the year for 918 yards and five scores. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has two other big-play wide receiver threats. First is Derwin Burgess Jr. He comes in with 696 yards this year on 68 receptions, coming out with 10.2 yards per catch this year. He has also scored five times. Dalen Cobb is averaging 15.8 yards per reception this year, with 506 yards on just 32 receptions on the season. Georgia Southern's defense is not great, but will be up against an Ohio offense that will have plenty of three-and-outs on Saturday. Ohio's defense will spend most of the game on the field and that will wear down the Bobcats over time and give the Eagles even more of an advantage. This line has moved heavily. It opened with Ohio as a 2.5-point favorite, but with the high likelihood that Rourke will not be playing, it has shifted things. Further, Ohio will be missing their top two running backs and their top wide receiver in this game. Georgia Southern has almost all of their weapons in this game, while Ohio is missing almost their entire offense. Take Georgia Southern in this one.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 11, 2023 )
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Bet: New York Giants +6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
This is a sell-high point for a Packers team that has seen their stock blow up over the last couple of weeks. Keep in mind that is the same squad that was a 3-point underdog at home against the Chargers just three weeks ago. Meanwhile, the New York Giants have also been playing relatively well despite most giving them up for dead after they lost QB Daniel Jones to a season-ending injury and replaced him with undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito. DeVito looked awful in his first two starts but has played better recently, leading the G-Men to back-to-back victories against the Commanders and Patriots. Granted, those are two of the worst teams in the league but he still completed 68.6% of his passes for 437 yards with four TDs and no picks despite facing constant pressure. Green Bay's defense also isn't as good as New England's, with the Packers ranking just 22nd in defensive EPA. That Green Bay stop unit could be even worse with top corner Jaire Alexander and leading tackler Quay Walker sidelined and two other starters in the secondary listed as questionable. This is a Green Bay defense that has struggled to defend the run all season, surrendering 136.3 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. That works out perfectly for a Giants team that will look to lean on star running back Saquon Barkley to control the clock. Expect him to shred a Packers squad that ranks 23rd in the league in defensive rush EPA on the season and has given up 160.8 rushing yards per game over their last four contests. The Packers are also hurting on offense, with wide receiver Christian Watson out with a hamstring injury and running back Aaron Jones questionable with a knee injury. This is a letdown spot for a banged-up Packers side.
NFL Revenge Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 10, 2023 )
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -3/-118 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
We start in the NFC East with a huge rivalry showdown in the Lone Star State on Sunday night. The Eagles were handed their worst loss in nearly two years after a 41-19 thrashing at the hands of the 49ers in the NFC Championship rematch at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday evening. Meanwhile, the Cowboys held off a feisty Seahawks' team in a high-scoring 41-35 victory to start Week 13 last Thursday night. Both teams are great covering the spread this year but this matchup features a huge disadvantage between the Cowboys' offense and the Eagles' defense. Since its bye in Week 7, Dallas has 40+ points in four of their past six contests and have only been held below 30 points once, ironically by the Eagles in Week 9. They've scored a league-high 388 points and are averaging 41 points per game at home in 2023. On the other side, the Eagles defense has surrendered an asinine 961 total yards in back-to-back games and have given up the third most passing yards in the entire NFL this season. With the Eagles coming off a physical loss against the 49ers, this should be a tough matchup on the road. They’ve played the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers over the last four weeks. The Cowboys are coming off a 41-35 win over the Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Ultimately, that little extra time to prepare should be the difference for the Cowboys. This is a no brainer and we are taking the Cowboys as our NFL Revenge Game of the Year No Limit Play.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 10, 2023 )
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns
Bet: Cleveland Browns -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Jacksonville Jaguars suffered several key injuries in their OT loss to the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. QB Trevor Lawrence and his favorite target in WR Christian Kirk both got hurt in that game. Even if Lawrence does, he would be playing at about 50% with a high ankle sprain. Whoever is under center will be playing behind a shoddy offensive line that is missing both starting tackles. They will also be playing against a Cleveland defense that has been ferocious at home this year. The Browns are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season where they are holding opponents to just 10.2 points per game, 175.7 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play. Joe Flacco showed enough against the Rams last week that he still can get the job done at QB. The Jaguars allowed 491 total yards to Cincinnati and backup QB Jake Browing last week, including 156 on the ground. The Browns can pound the rock in this one if they want to. Furthermore, while the Jaguars haven't ruled Trevor Lawrence out, but he is dealing with an ankle sprain. Even if he plays, he will not be at 100%. This is ideal for the Browns who continue to make it difficult for opposing QBs. They are allowing an average of only 153 passing yards per game which is #1 in the NFL. Jacksonville is also playing without receiving leader Christian Kirk. The Jaguars have not been able to generate many yards on the ground. They only averaged 2.8 yards per rush against the Bengals last week. Furthermore, while the Jaguars haven't ruled Trevor Lawrence out, but he is dealing with an ankle sprain. Even if he plays, he will not be at 100%. This is ideal for the Browns who continue to make it difficult for opposing QBs. They are allowing an average of only 153 passing yards per game which is #1 in the NFL. Jacksonville is also playing without receiving leader Christian Kirk. The Jaguars have not been able to generate many yards on the ground. They only averaged 2.8 yards per rush against the Bengals last week. The Browns should be able to do well and bounce back after a defensive struggle last week to cover the spread.
NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for December 7, 2023 )
New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Loser
The Patriots make a trip to Pittsburgh for some Thursday Night Football with the Steelers. This isn’t a game for the faint of heart to tune into watch. Both teams have gotten dismal performances from their quarterbacks this season and it may well end up being a battle of backup quarterbacks. These two met last season, a 17-14 win by the Patriots on the road. This was about the last time that the Patriots may have mattered. They have morphed into one of the worst offenses ever committed to an NFL football field and that won’t change with the loss of Stevenson. Somehow, it keeps getting worse for New England, who were felled by a pair of field goals. They managed 254 total yards versus Los Angeles and lost top running back Rhamondre Stevenson (high ankle sprain) for the season in the process. Zappe is not the answer either and the New England coaching staff seems to be snoozing at the wheel. Keep in mind that Trubisky would be the best quarterback for the Patriots. New England has a grand total of 13 points over a three-game span. The Patriots have been shut out twice and scored in single digits five times this season. Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to send this offense home with little to nothing to show for their efforts.
NFL Invincible Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 3, 2023 )
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 buy half point/-120 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Push
We’ve got an NFC South rivalry battle here in Week 13 as the Carolina Panthers travel to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’ll be the first game for the Panthers after they fired Frank Reich less than a year into his tenure at the helm. The team is hoping that firing Reich and a couple of offensive assistants will be enough to spark something in Bryce Young down the stretch but we are not too optimistic, especially on the road against a Todd Bowles defense. Bowles is one of the best in the league at mixing up blitz packages to confuse young quarterbacks, and we just saw that a couple of weeks ago when Tampa faced Will Levis and the Titans. They held Tennessee to just 6 points in that game as Levis struggled mightily. Carolina enters this one at 1-10, and most of their losses haven’t been close. Firing Reich isn’t going to change the fact that the team’s top receiver is an over-the-hill Adam Thielen, and Thielen has over 400 yards more than #2 Jonathan Mingo. Miles Sanders has been a total bust as a free agent signing and is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, so don’t count on the ground game being able to bail them out here when Young inevitably struggles with Tampa’s pass-rush. Young hasn’t just been bad, he’s been consistently bad. Even most tumultuous rookie campaigns have some flashes of brilliance and bright spots to point to, but Young hasn’t really looked the part in a single game this season. Young has only averaged more than 6.3 yards per attempt once all season, and that was over a month ago at home against the Texans in a game where he still took 6 sacks. While Tampa Bay has been poor thus far on the season with a 4-7 record, they are 7-4 ATS in their 11 games played. On top of that, Carolina has yet to win a game on the road in six tries and the Panthers are 1-8-2 against the spread. The firing of Frank Reich, Josh McCown, and Duce Staley might bring about a necessary shock for Carolina, but it ultimately won't be enough for this game. The Panthers are still a mess on both sides of the ball and have several key players on the injured list. Tampa at least has a solid rushing defense and Bryce Young does not present an intimidating factor for their secondary. The Panthers will become one-dimensional quickly and eventually lose the game by at least a touchdown. The Panthers have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record. The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against NFC opponents. The favorites have covered the spread in seven of the Buccaneers' last eight games at Raymond James Stadium. Back the Buccaneers against the spread.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for December 2, 2023 )
Georgia vs. Alabama
Bet: Georgia -5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The two titans of the SEC will square off for the second time in three years in the SEC Championship Game. The Georgia Bulldogs enter Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta as the team to beat in college football once again. To the extent that an undefeated team can have a slow start, the 2023 Bulldogs did. Georgia began the year 0-4-1 against the spread before covering four of its final seven games. UGA absolutely demolished its final two SEC opponents of the season, routing Ole Miss 52-17 as 11-point home favorites before crushing Tennessee 38-10 as 8.5-point road chalk. Though he wasn’t as prolific as Stetson Bennett in 2022, junior quarterback Carson Beck kept the Georgia passing game strong, averaging 291.3 yards per game with an excellent 72.4 completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He actually finished the regular season with a higher QBR than Bennett did last year (168.2 vs 161.2), even though future first-round tight end Brock Bowers missed three games, including the season finale against Georgia Tech, which saw a seriously-depleted UGA team gut out a 31-23 win. However, there is no suggestion Bowers is going to miss the SEC title game, though he is listed as questionable. After losing 34-24 at home to Texas in Week 2, Alabama went a perfect 10-0 but not without much difficulty. Three of Alabama’s wins were decided by six points or fewer (26-20 at Texas A&M, 24-21 vs Arkansas, and 27-24 at Auburn). Last week’s Iron Bowl victory was the most improbable of the bunch, as Bama converted a final-minute fourth-and-goal from the 31 to earn the three-point win. While Alabama’s defense is filled with future NFL talent, they don’t have the same on offense, and it’s showed. Alabama only averaged 409.1 yards of offense per game (231.5 passing and 177.6 rushing), which was just 49th out 133 FBS teams. The Tide did manage to score 40 or more points five times, but were also held under 30 six times. Concerningly for an already mediocre offense, starting RB Jase McClellan (803 rushing yards on 166 carries) finished the Auburn game on the sideline in a walking boot. His status for the SEC Championship is unclear, but he missed practice on Monday and Tuesday, which doesn’t bode well. Already thin in the backfield, Alabama can ill afford to subtract McClellan from the offense. If Georgia is close to healthy, they are a significantly better team than Alabama, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They nearly doubled-up both Ole Miss (611 to 352) and Tennessee (472 to 277) in total yardage. Their narrow victories over Missouri (30-21) and Georgia Tech (31-23) both came without Bowers. While head coach Kirby Smart will never state so expressly, he likely held out several players from the Georgia Tech game so that they would be closer to 100% against Alabama. Georgia's offense is the star of the team this season, and that should show on the Atlanta turf, and Saturday's success on the ground should inject more confidence into the offense that it can beat Alabama in every way possible with its offense. Alabama displayed more flaws throughout the season, and as it did on Saturday against Auburn, it has had to pull out some close wins. With this game in Atlanta, as well, we will take UGA to cover the 5 points spread.
NFL Favorite Game of the Week No Limit Play ( Play released for November 26, 2023 )
Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -3/-105 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Push
The Buffalo Bills visit the Philadelphia Eagles in what could be the game of the week on Sunday. The Bills are not having the season they planned at 6-5, but they are coming off a 32-6 win against the Jets. There have been questions about their offense all season and WR Stefon Diggs has made it known that he is not happy with the team. The Dolphins are the only likely playoff team that the Bills have beaten this season and 5 of their 6 wins were against weaker teams, which suggests they do not show up when they are facing a good opponent. In fact, the Bills have gone just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games, having SU wins against the Giants as a 15 points home favorites ( 9-14 final score ), against Tampa Bay as a 10 points home favorites ( 18-24 final score ), and against the Jets as 8.5 home favorites (6-32 final score ). The Eagles, on the other hand, are 9-1 on the season and coming off a huge win against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs on Monday. The Eagles are rolling, especially on offense with QB Jalen Hurts been able to make deep throws downfield or scramble for a big gain. He also has WR AJ Brown, who is having a huge season and has already surpassed the 1,000 receiving yard mark. This team can beat you through the air or on the ground with D’Andre Swift and that is what makes them so hard to stop. We expect the Bills defense to struggle defending this high-powered Eagles offense and to give up a lot of points. Philadelphia is 28-4 SU in their last 32 games when playing as the favorite. Philadelphia is 19-3 SU in their last 22 games played on a Sunday. We are taking the Eagles on the spread.
NCAAF Shocker Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 25, 2023 )
Florida State vs. Florida
Bet: Florida State -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The face-off between Florida State and Florida has been dubbed the Battle of the Backups with both starting quarterbacks out for this important game. While we would never cheer on injuries, this has swung the value to the Seminoles’ side with a smaller spread. FSU’s backup quarterback is more of a pocket passer than the dual-threat Jordan Travis. However, even though Travis could scramble with his legs he only averaged 2.4 yards per carry on 73 attempts. His absence will put the focus, in the running game, more on Trey Benson. Benson has averaged 6.2 yards per carry on 119 attempts and has scored 11 touchdowns. Looking at Florida State’s past games this season, Virginia Tech’s defense is similar to that of the Gators. In fact, both V Tech and Florida allow exactly 161 yards rushing per game. In the game against Virginia Tech, FSU’s Trey Benson had his best game of the season rushing for 200 yards on 14 carries, a career high for the junior back. It was the first game of the season for FSU where they emphasized the run, similar to what this week will be against the Gators. Additionally, though Tate Rodemaker is a backup quarterback, he has been around the program for 4 years. He'll lean on that exposure to operate FSU's gameplan. On the Gator side, QB Max Brown is a redshirt freshman with less experience. Despite losing their starting quarterback, the Florida State squad is a fine oiled machine. Their offense has been impressive this season and their defense has been outstanding. The Florida Gator offense has allowed 3 sacks per game this year which is 119th in the nation. FSU's playmakers, including Jared Verse are going to make it frustrating for the young quarterback. Additionally, the Florida Gators only convert 3rd downs 33.5% of the time which means the defense of FSU will stay rested. Ultimately, FSU has a lot to prove in this game to reenter the conversation of the final four teams that will play for the National Championship game this year. This game is their one chance to do it. FSU wins here like they did last year in this rivalry game. FSU -6.5.
NCAAF Underdog Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 25, 2023 )
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines
Bet: Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
At first glance, this number feels a little short given that it’s likely a reaction to what we’ve just seen. Michigan probably should’ve lost to Maryland on the road a week after a fairly uninspiring effort against Penn State, even in a victory. However, after digging into the film and box scores for both of these teams, Ohio State has improved considerably as the season has gone on, including a couple of dominant performances in recent weeks to bring this line down to 3.5 from the lookahead number of 6. There’s also the factor of Jim Harbaugh not being on the sidelines, so that could work in Ohio State’s favor as well as it relates to in-game decisions, halftime adjustments and more. It’s not lost on us that Harbaugh’s noticeable absence on the sidelines might’ve really affected JJ McCarthy under center. The Wolverines offense has been extremely conservative under acting head coach Sherrone Moore, a product of an offensive line that is much worse than it has been in previous years. It also likely impacted the effectiveness and confidence of Michigan’s quarterback, who was already a player that we had major questions about in big games. Since Moore took over, McCarthy is just 19-of-31 passing with 0 touchdowns and an interception, to go along with 4 turnover-worthy throws over the last 2 weeks. Now, in steps an Ohio State defense under DC Jim Knowles that should be able to contain a Michigan offense that has a serious explosiveness problem, particularly in the passing game. The visitors will have the best player on the field in Marvin Harrison Jr., who should see consistent success against Michigan’s corners, opening up avenues for Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover to make plays over the middle of the field. Ultimately, we can’t trust the Michigan offensive line and passing game, while Ohio State is peaking at the right time. Let’s back the Buckeyes in “The Game”.
NFL Teaser Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 23, 2023 )
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
Bet: 6.5 points teaser: Detroit Lions -1 and Dallas Cowboys -6/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
Washington’s playoff hopes likely were flushed down the toilet with their loss to the Giants at home Sunday. Turning the ball over six times and giving up four sacks to a Giants’ team that has been bad this season is concerning. Washington gave up 10 sacks to the Giants in their two meetings this season: by comparison, New York has just nine sacks in their other nine games combined. Now, you have to block Micah Parsons and a Dallas defense that has rung up 33 sacks, including 12 in the last two weeks. Howell has been running for his life this season, getting sacked a league-high 51 times. The Commanders don’t have the weapons to keep up in a shootout and they lack the run game to control the clck. Dallas waltzes to the home victory in this contest.
We already have the one meeting at Lambeau earlier in the season, a game where the Lions looked fantastic and won 34-20. We think we could see something in a similar range this time. we simply don’t have enough trust in Jordan Love to keep this game close especially at the hostile Ford Field. The quarterback is completing just 56.9% of his passes on the road and he has thrown six of his 10 interceptions away from home. Factor in the injuries to David Bakhtiari (out), Aaron Jones (questionable), and Jaire Alexander (questionable), and we think Detroit wins by at least two possessions.
NFL Invincible Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 19, 2023 )
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -10.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Dallas is a bully. They beat up on the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams that are superior to them. Take a look at their scores vs inferior teams this season. They beat the Giants twice by 32 & 40 points, beat the Rams by 23 points, beat the Patriots 35 points, and beat the Jets by 20 points. Their lone poor performance vs an inferior team was @ Arizona back in September. When a heavy favorite, Dallas usually rolls big. They are playing at the top of their game right now as well. Since their bye week the Cowboys have played 3 games and they are averaging 38 PPG. Since week 6 this offense is averaging 42.4 yards per drive which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period. They have scored a touchdown on 37.2% of their drives over that span which is 2nd best in the league. On Sunday they are facing a Carolina defense that is fading fast allowing a league-high 2.42 points per drive over their past five games. How are the offensively challenged Panthers going to keep up in this game? We don’t think they can. Carolina has scored 13, 13, and 15 points in their last 3 games vs defenses ranked 15th, 21st, and 26th in total defense. Now they face a Dallas defense that ranks 3rd in total defense and 4th in YPP allowed. The Boys also put all kinds of pressure on opposing QB’s ranking 4th in the NFL in sack percentage and facing a rookie QB Young who has already been sacked 29 times this season. Bryce Young is 30th in QBR and the offense has trouble running the ball averaging only 90 YPG on the ground. 5 of their 8 losses have come by double digits this season and 5 of the Cowboys 6 wins have come by at least 20 points. This is a hefty number but we just don’t see how the Carolina offense will be able to keep up in this game. Lay it.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 18, 2023 )
Utah Utes vs. Arizona Wildcats
Bet: Arizona Wildcats ML/+100 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Jedd Fisch’s team has still been an ATM this season, and we are not convinced that the betting market is accounting for what they have accomplished to this point. As we`ve said for over a month now, this is a different tea, with Noah Fifita under center and a trio of excellent wide receivers at his disposal. This offense is predicated on getting the ball out quickly and that is the best method of success against a Utah defense that was recently shredded by the quick passing attack of Oregon. The Utes are already a weaker team away from the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium and a trip to the desert is not a welcome one for a team that will be playing its second straight road game on Saturday. The most underrated unit in this game is Arizona’s defense as the Wildcats are 37th in early-downs EPA, 32th in EPA per pass and 28th in EPA per rush (CFB-Graphs). That unit shouldn’t struggle this weekend against a Utah offense that is constantly behind the chains (123rd in early downs EPA), can’t throw the ball consistently (118th in EPA per dropback) and is banged up at the running back position as well. Outside of games against Washington, USC and Arizona State (all poor run defenses), this Utah offense has struggled to get anything going in conference play. All of these signals point to a win at home for the Wildcats, and we have full confidence in backing Fifita and this group over a Utah team with serious questions and significant injury concerns. Bear Down!
NFL Shocker Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 12, 2023 )
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Bet: Minnesota Vikings +3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Josh Dobbs did a great job of ad libbing coming off the bench in place of an injured Jaren Hall last week, who was replacing an injured Kirk Cousins. He single-handedly led the Vikings to a 31-28 win over the Atlanta Falcons on the road despite not really knowing the playbook. Dobbs finished 20-of-30 passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 66 yards and a score. Now Dobbs gets a full week of practice to learn the playbook and will be even more effective against the New Orleans Saints this week. The Vikings have a ton of momentum right now, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their lone loss to Kansas City. They believe they can make the playoffs at this point, and they traded for Dobbs to try and save their season. What has been most amazing about this 4-0 run is that three of those wins came on the road, and the other was an upset home win over the San Francisco 49ers. This team is legit, yet they aren't getting treated like it as they will be an underdog or PK for a 4th consecutive week here. They are hosting a New Orleans Saints team that is getting too much respect for consecutive victories over the Colts and Bears. Last week's 24-17 win over the Bears wasn't impressive at all. The Saints were actually outgained by 67 yards by the Bears in that contest. They only won by 7 despite being +5 in turnovers. The Saints once again struggled in the red zone, and Derek Carr is one of the worst red zone QB's in the history of the NFL. This Saints defense gets a lot of love because of what they did early in the season against a very soft schedule. They have been leaky on defense the last three weeks, allowing 31 points and 330 yards to the Jaguars, 27 points and 371 yards to the Colts and 17 points and 368 yards to the Bears. The Saints give up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing QB's in the NFL this season, and Dobbs is going to have a lot of success running against their man-to-man scheme. Minnesota averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.3 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 0.5 yards per play. New Orleans averages 5.1 yards per play on offense and allows 5.1 yards per play on defense to break even. Minnesota has actually been the better team to this point when you factor in strength of schedule. The Saints have played the easiest (32nd) schedule in the NFL, while the Vikings have played the 10th-toughest having already faced the Eagles, Chiefs and 49ers among others. Dennis Allen is 3-14 ATS following a win as a head coach. Allen is 0-7 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better as a head coach. We give the coaching edge to Kevin O'Connell over Allen in this one as well. He is going to be able to scheme up some things for Dobbs that Allen isn't going to be prepared since there's hardly any tape on him in Minnesota yet. It's not as big of a drop off from Cousins to Dobbs as this line indicates. Bet the Vikings Sunday.
NCAAF Road Warrior Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 11, 2023 )
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Bet: Michigan Wolverines -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This game between Michigan and Penn State is the top game on the board Saturday and one of the defining games for the BIG10 conference standings. So far the line has dropped to 4.5 which is by far the smallest line the Wolverines have faced all season, with the next closest being -17.5 on the road at Nebraska. There are many similarities between the squads responsible for the lower line. Firstly, both teams are ranked at the top of the Nation defensively with Michigan allowing 6.7 points per game and Penn State 12. Secondly, both teams score on average 40 points a game and hover around 400 yards per game. Even their rush/pass yard breakdowns are consistent with each other. Finally, both teams have played relatively soft schedules with Michigan’s toughest game being a 31-7 victory over Rutgers and Penn State losing to Ohio State by a score of 20-12. Penn State’s toughest win was their victory last week against Maryland or earlier in the season over Iowa. The difference is where the edge will come into play in this match-up. Firstly, and most importantly, is the experience levels of both quarterbacks. J.J. McCarthy is in his third year with the Wolverines and his second at the head of the offense. In the two years he has been a starter he has piloted Michigan to a 21-1 record with an impressive win last season over the #2 Ohio State Buckeyes by a score of 45-23 as a 9 point dog. In that game he threw for 263 yards with 3 touchdowns. Also last season, he piloted his team to victory over 10th-ranked Penn State 41-17 covering the 7 point spread in that match. They did lose to TCU in a playoff bowl game 51-45. In the bowl game, McCarthy threw for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns but had 2 picks as well. Drew Allar’s exposure to important games sits at 2. Allar handled business earlier in the season against a 24th-ranked Iowa team but fell flat against Ohio State weeks ago. Against Ohio State he connected on 18 of 42 passes for just 191 yards. Secondly, you can refer to the game these teams played last season against each other. Again, Michigan was just a touchdown favorite and dominated the game winning 41-17. In that game, Michigan took control on the ground rushing for 339 yards with Edwards grabbing 173 yards and Corum netting 166. Penn State was a top rush defense last year as well allowing just 112 yards per game in 2022. Ultimately, the offense of Michigan has been machine-like this season efficiently gathering yards in bunches. Their 55.5% 3rd down conversion percentage points is evidence of that. They are even 7 for 11 on 4th down conversions. Additionally, they are virtually mistake-free with a nation’s best 2.7 penalties per game and were only penalized once last week. The value for or against the Penn State line has swung like a pendulum over the last two weeks. Last week there was great value on Penn State because they had just come off a tough game against Indiana, where Allar struggled, almost losing the game. Then, Penn State destroyed Maryland. That performance helped keep this games' line against Michigan in the single digits. And now for the elephant in the room. Due to off-field controversies there is actually a slim chance that the Wolverines will not be given the opportunity to play in the playoffs this season and/or their coach Jim Harbaugh will be suspended. This possibility will further motivate the Wolverines to demonstrate that they are not only the best team in the BIG10 but the best in the nation. Their two opportunities to do that will be this week against Penn State and in two weeks, at the Big House, against Ohio State. Michigan wins by double digits here, 4.5 is a gift. Due to the off field concerns the line continues to fall.
NFL Game of the Week No Limit Play ( Play released for November 5, 2023 )
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
The Bills and Bengals last met up in the AFC Divisional game last season. The Bills entered that game as a 6-point favorite with much talk of the potential meeting between them and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. Joe Burrow and the Bengals destroyed those plans with a dominant performance and decisively beat the Bills 27-10. In the game, Burrow completed his passes 72% of the time and threw for 2 touchdowns. Additionally, Joe Mixon ran for 105 yards and scored a touchdown on the ground. On the flip side, Allen threw for 264 yards but failed to find the end zone and had 1 interception on the day. Additionally, he led all Bills rushers with just 26 yards. Any way you look at it, the win was an impressive one, especially on the road. This year the Bengals will get a chance to duplicate that performance on their home turf. This could easily be seen as a revenge game for the Bills plus emotions could be high because of the Damar Hamelin situation that occurred in the game between these two earlier last season but many of the players have downplayed that idea including Stefon Diggs who stated, “That ship has sailed, Damar is good, had a long off-season to think about it, lots of things have happened since then…”. No matter what they say, you can bet they will come into Cincinnati emotionally charged. This game features good against good. It is going to come down to which team will execute at the higher level. The Bengals will be on their home turf and able to channel the energy from their fans who will, no doubt, be there in droves. Importantly, their number one rusher, Joe Mixon who has 453 yards on the season returned to practice on Thursday and is good to go for Sunday’s game. In the game against Buffalo last year he rushed for 105 yards and is an important factor to open up the passing game. The injuries to the Bills secondary have affected their pass defense in some ways. Tampa Bay’s quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 237 yards last week against the Bills which is 20 yards more than his average and his 4th best game this season. Additionally, he threw for 2 touchdowns. The addition of Rasul Douglas will give them immediate depth but there will be a breaking-in period as well. Like Mayfield, Burrow threw for 240 yards against the Bills last year and should be able to duplicate that effort. The Bills quarterback Josh Allen is coming into this game with a sore shoulder. This will affect his passing somewhat even if he can play through the pain. Importantly, Allen has thrown a pick in 4 games straight and the Bengals D pulled in 2 last week against the 49ers. Additionally, the Bengals are averaging 1.5 interceptions from their defense a game. Costly turnovers could very well be the difference in this tough battle. Two of the three Bills’ losses were on the road against weaker opponents. This will be the Bills toughest road test yet. Couple that with injuries on their side of the ball and you can see why Cincy has the edge in this one. Cincy keeps the Momentum on their side in the AFC and wins this game on Sunday Night.
NCAAF Revenge Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for November 4, 2023 )
LSU vs. Alabama
Bet: Alabama -3/-105 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
LSU has built up a ton of momentum heading into this matchup against Alabama, one that may determine the SEC West. The team has been explosive on offense behind the third choice to win the Heisman Trophy in Daniels, but the defense continues to be a disaster. In LSU's two losses this season, the team allowed more than 40 points to Florida State and Ole Miss. The team also allowed more than 30 to Arkansas and Missouri. The defense is an eyesore and has been gashed by any team with a pulse on that side of the ball. There is no D in Louisiana State. The offense might be a blast, but the defense tackles like opponents are covered in oil. Now, the team faces Alabama, a team that we had questions for early in the season, but have quietly turned it around on offense as Jalen Milroe continues to grow into his role as the starting quarterback of the Crimson Tide. Alabama's run game continues to be a concern, the unit is averaging fewer than four yards per carry and is 126th in sacks allowed, but the team has proven to be dangerous in the passing game, top 10 in yards per pass attempt, and explosive passing offense. Milroe has been excellent in terms of finding the likes of Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton downfield. Milroe has completed 60% of his passes that have traveled more than 20 yards per attempt with 17 big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays. So, while LSU's offense is exciting and makes chunk plays, we are incredibly concerned about the team's ability to limit chunk plays through the air. LSU is 119th in explosive pass defense and 98th in sacks. Meanwhile, Alabama grades out as the best coverage unit in college football this season. While Alabama got beat deep against Texas, the team has shut down the likes of Ole Miss, who bolster a potent passing game as well. Further, Alabama is far ahead of the Tigers in other key metrics including special teams grading and tackling. Alabama is fifth in special teams grading while LSU is 87th, a hidden edge that could determine the game with a spread this close. As we continue to harp on the difference between the two defenses, LSU is 47th in tackling this season while Alabama is seventh. The Crimson Tide are still prone to giving up chunk plays, bottom half of the country in limiting explosive plays, but the team has been nails on a down-to-down basis, ranking top 10 in success rate and 13th in points per drive. After being skeptical of the Alabama passing game early on, this unit has improved quite a bit against strong defenses like Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee, hitting timely deep shots at a high clip. Meanwhile, LSU's defense will be the worst on the field by a wide margin. It’s not like Alabama does the whole revenge thing, it’s almost like the program is above that sort of thing but yeah, after how last year’s loss to LSU went down the defense is going to take this game personally. We make this game Alabama -5.5 and will lay the field goal with the better defense at home to get revenge after last year`s dramatic loss.
NCAAF Favorite Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for October 28, 2023 )
Duke vs. Louisville
Bet: Louisville -5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We believe it will end up being diamonds that's created by Louisville in this post-bye spot, whether Leonard plays or not for Duke. If he does, there is little chance he's near 100%, and if he doesn't it means Henry Belin IV gets to make his first career road start against a rested and talented defense. Definitely a situation we are looking to fade almost always. In fact, Belin IV has only made one career start to begin with – at home vs NC State a few weeks back – and while Duke did win that game 24-3, it was a home game for the Blue Devils and Belin IV still only went 4-for-12 passing for 107 yards. Duke isn't going to go into Louisville this week and find success being one-dimensional on offense. The Cardinals have scored at least 33 points in every one of their three home games this year, and that includes scoring 33 on Notre Dame and 56 on a surging Boston College program. Louisville HC Jeff Brohm was brought to his Alma mater to bring explosiveness back to this offense, and even against that stout Duke defense, we expect the Cardinals to threaten 30+ points again here as long as they protect the football. Rust concerns off the bye just aren't really there given that the Cardinals are coming off their first loss and likely got after it a bit during all those practices, and with a backup QB who's lucky to complete passes at this level, there is just little chance that the Blue Devils offense does enough to keep up. Lay it with Louisville in this spot loaded with positives for them.
NFL Teaser Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for October 26, 2023 )
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Bet: 6.5 points teaser: Buffalo Bills -2 and Cincinnati Bengals +10/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The spread has jumped from 7.5 up to 8.5 as of Monday night, indicating some sharp money on the Bills. Buffalo has too much talent to continue to play as poorly as they have over the past two weeks. The Bills won three straight games from Week 2 to 4 by at least 28 or more points over each opponent. Tampa Bay will have a hard time keeping up in this game. Tampa's offense is only 27th in scoring and 29th in rushing offense. Buffalo's offense is 3rd in scoring and will easily cover this spread. The Buccaneers pass defense ranks 27th in the league allowing 246.7 yards per game. Allen will have the bounce-back game he needs against this weak secondary, utilizing Diggs and Davis as they continue to find the end zone. There is also a chance Baker Mayfield cannot play because of his knee, in which case Kyle Trask will be asked to keep up with the Buffalo offense. Buffalo's season truly is a roller coaster, and this is a great time to buy low as Buffalo will win this game by double digits.
What a game we have on Sunday featuring the Cincinnati Bengals paying a visit to the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers started the season 5-0 but have now lost back-to-back games against teams they should’ve beaten. The Bengals have had a polar opposite start to the season, dropping the first two games before winning three of their last four. To make things more interesting for the 49ers, starting quarterback Brock Purdy has been placed on concussion protocol this week and is expected to miss this one. The 49ers sound like they are in trouble with Sam Darnold possibly starting and star wide receiver Deebo Samuel missing another week due to injury. San Francisco’s offense was averaging over 30 points per game on the season but in the last two games they haven’t even been able to score 20. We expect the 49ers offense to continue struggling this week against this sturdy Cincinnati team. The Bengals are coming off back-to-back wins and their defense is allowing less than 22 points per game this season. After seeing what Kirk Cousins did to the 49ers defense, we are expecting a big game from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday. They should be able to exploit the 49ers secondary and if the Bengals offensive line can block for Burrow it could be a long night for San Fran. We are taking the Bengals to cover the spread on the road and wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off the road upset as well.
NFL Invincible Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for October 16, 2023 )
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Bet: Dallas Cowboys -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Two words: Buy Low. The Cowboys could not possibly have looked worse against the 49ers. Dak Prescott reverted back to his old self with multiple interceptions, Tony Pollard lost a fumble, the defense couldn’t muster any stops to speak of, and in a revenge spot that was supported by the market, the Cowboys got housed. There’s no way around it. There wasn’t a single, solitary bright spot from last week. But that’s the beauty of the NFL. That was last week, and it’s onto Week 6. One of the best pieces of advice we can give for betting the NFL is that in most cases, treat like it’s a week-to-week league. In other words, don’t assume that just because something happened last week it will happen the next. That’s not how it works, most of the time, when you’re dealing with pro athletes. Some teams are flat out bad. The Cowboys aren’t. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for them. Unlike the 49ers, the Chargers are soft in the secondary. They have a decent pass rush on paper, but their 16 sacks this season are inflated by Khalil Mack’s six-sack game against his former team the Las Vegas Raiders. This is the same Chargers team that didn’t score in the second half against the lowly Raiders, that scraped by a bad Vikings team that’s probably going to be selling at the trade deadline, and that lost to a bad Titans team. Don’t be fooled. The Cowboys may not be in the same weight class as San Francisco, but that’s a world away from what this Chargers team is. Add in that it’s a primetime game where Brandon Staley’s decisions will be magnified? Yes, we will take the Cowboys happily inside a field goal please.
NFL Shocker Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for October 15, 2023 )
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Bet: Houston Texans ML/+115 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
We have an interesting matchup on Sunday between the Texans and the Saints in Houston. The Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Falcons in which they lost on a game-winning field goal in the dying seconds. Not much was expected this season from the Texans but rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has been showing up and playing like a vet. His most impressive stat this season is that he has thrown 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. He takes very good care of the football and that is something we don’t typically see from rookie quarterbacks. And it isn’t like he isn’t throwing it much either, as the Texans offense ranks 2nd in the league in most passing yards per game. He will need to bring his A-game this Sunday as the Saints have one of the best defenses in the NFL and allow just 15 points per game. New Orleans just shut out the Patriots, but we like Stroud’s chances of breaking down this Saints pass defense. Fresh from their 34-0 blowout win over the Patriots, we can see the Saints coming into this one a little sluggish. Teams who are coming off a huge blowout win the week before have been known to underperform in their next game. This Saints team is built to win low-scoring games and relies on its defense to keep them in most games. They only average 19 points per game and that will not fly this week in Houston. We expect the Texans to score on them early and force them to play a different style of game than they are used to. We love getting the Texans as a home underdog in this spot and we are more than happy to take them to win this outright.
NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for October 14, 2023 )
Miami Hurricanes vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Bet: North Carolina Tar Heels -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
Alright, let’s get this out of the way right out of the gates. Miami at North Carolina was supposed to be one of the most meaningful ACC games of the season, as two top teams are trying to dethrone the traditional powers of Clemson and Florida State. But Miami ruined that last week when we learned that they cannot coach their way out of a paper bag. We are sure you are done hearing about it by this point, as their end-game management was a blunder of epic proportions, failing to take a knee with 30 seconds left and the opponent out of timeouts. When they ran a play anyway (presumably to get their running back over the mystical 100-yd mark), they deserved to fumble, and they deserved to get scored on in 22 seconds to lose. No question. But let’s also remember that Miami was a 20-point home favorite, and while the final kneel-down-that-wasn’t took all the attention, there were a ton of blunders that led to the game being close in the first place. Miami was tons better than Georgia Tech, and they completely dominated the box score, but it didn’t matter. Now, heading to North Carolina, we do not trust this Miami team for a second, and more than that, we do not trust this coaching staff to put their athletes in a position to succeed. Miami has a great defense with a ton of really fast athletes that are very disruptive to opponents. They rank #1 in the country against the rush, and they are a top 50 team against the pass. Then again, they had a game against Texas A&M, and otherwise they are untested. UNC is an entirely different opponent for the Canes. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, have dominated every opponent on the schedule except (as always) Appalachian State. Drake May is a great quarterback in a year filled with great quarterbacks, and last week he threw for 442 yards and 3 scores against a Syracuse team that plays good defense. We love the Tar Heels to keep it rolling here. The Tar Heel defense is far from perfect, but this coaching staff is not going to let Tyler Van Dyke succeed. He threw 3 picks last week and looked ugly doing so, and some of them were—once again—coaching blunders, like calling slow-developing pass plays deep in the red zone that end up calling for throws over the middle of the field into traffic. Gross. Miami deserves better, especially with the athletes and talent that they have. Maybe they will figure it out at some point, but it`s not going to be against the Tar Heels. One thing that separates North Carolina this year from their teams of the recent past is their ability to play defense. QB Mayes is a future top draft pick in the NFL and will produce points for the Heels. This year, however, the defense has held up its end of the bargain making Carolina a much more challenging team to play. Miami makes far too many mental mistakes, raking 117th in penalties per game, in a game that features two teams that are otherwise close in most categories. The Heels have shined against the spread this year as well, covering in four of five opportunities this year with the only non-cover coming against App State. We like Mayes to once again shine in the spotlight of a national television game on Saturday night. Take North Carolina as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
Bet Refund Guaranteed NFL No Limit Play ( Play released for October 9, 2023 )
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Bet: Green Bay Packers ML/+100 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
There’s just nothing here for us with the Raiders this season. They are dreadful. Josh McDaniels is the worst coach in the NFL and the Raiders rely almost exclusively on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. Their defense, with yet another reach in the Top 5 of Tyree Wilson — is a shiv. They have lost 3 games in a row, so this is going the wrong way and fast. Yes, they’re going to get Jimmy Garoppolo back. But we all saw him against the Steelers, right? Two of his 3 interceptions felt like they were intended for the defense. He is currently on pace to throw 26 picks this season. All that talk about how Jimmy G is such a winner? More like he played for the best offensive coaching staff in the NFL in Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. The only quarterback in the NFL they can’t scheme to a starting role is apparently Trey Lance. The Raiders are flat out a sinking ship, kept from the bottom of the ocean floor only by 3 players in Adams, Jacobs and defensive end Maxx Crosby. The Packers, meanwhile, are getting healthy with 10 days between games. Aaron Jones won’t be on a pitch count this week. Wideout Christian Watson returned last week and immediately caught a touchdown. Two-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins returned to practice this week, as did stud defensive back Jaire Alexander. If these 2 suit up then it could be a really, really long night for the Raiders. This is a spot in which we expect Green Bay’s depth and massive coaching advantage to show through. This is playable for us up to -3, and at -1 we think we’re getting a massive discount. The Packers have the better team right now and it’s tough to have faith in the Raiders given their problems on both sides of the ball. Take Green Bay on the road in this contest.
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( Play released for October 7, 2023 )
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns
Bet: Texas Longhorns -6/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Red River Rivalry is always one of the biggest games on the college football calendar, and this year the installment features the clear top 2 teams in the Big 12 this season. Prior to the season we were all in on Texas to win the conference, and this game likely represents the biggest challenge to what should otherwise be a fairly routine path to the Big 12 title game for the Longhorns. What makes Texas such an appealing side in this matchup is the clear balance and depth on both sides of the ball that this team has. Steve Sarkisian’s offense is as efficient as ever, with elite talent at the skill positions and a confident quarterback in Quinn Ewers who is the midst of his best stretch under center in his collegiate career. Texas is sitting at 15th in EPA per pass and 19th in EPA margin while also ranking at 16th in points per quality possession. Even with Texas’ season-long success on paper, it’s telling that the Longhorns left points on the board against Alabama and Kansas, two games that they won in convincing fashion. Furthermore, this defense is terrific, sitting at 5th in passing success rate, 7th in rush success rate, 7th in net points per drive and 15th in early downs EPA. Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma’s passing game struggled at times against SMU and Cincinnati, so we are expecting some issues in this matchup. The Texas front seven is a havoc machine and we find it hard to believe that Oklahoma’s middling running game will get going against this stout defensive front. Not only is this a play on Texas, but this is another slight fade of Oklahoma, who looked impressive against Arkansas State and Tulsa this season, but seriously struggled at times en route to a fraudulent cover by the hook against SMU. The Sooners also failed to cover against Cincinnati, despite winning the turnover battle. This is also the first time that the Sooners will face a legitimate quarterback and offensive line this season against a Longhorns offense that is humming of late. Oklahoma also has serious offensive line concerns, as the Sooners haven’t been great in pass-blocking despite playing a barely-top 100 strength of schedule to this point. Texas has the better offense while the Longhorns defense is certainly the best unit the Sooners will face this season. It’s hard for us to find a path where Oklahoma keeps this within 6 points over the course of 60 minutes, so we are sticking with our belief in Texas in another high-profile game.
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Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Bet: Buffalo Bills -2.5/-120 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
We have a huge game in Week 4 between the Miami Dolphins visiting the Buffalo Bills — Tua Tagovailoa facing off against Josh Allen. The Dolphins have been nearly unstoppable on offense, putting up video game-like numbers. They are ranked #1 in rushing yards per game, averaging 188 yards, and #1 in passing yards per game (363). That’s an insane 551 total yards per game average, but if anyone can back them down to earth it’s the Bills’ defense. Buffalo ranks 2nd-best in total yards allowed per game. The Bills have already sacked the quarterback 12 times this season and have recorded 7 interceptions. They may be one of the few teams that can cause problems for the Dolphins’ offense. Let’s not forget that Tagovailoa is also 1-4 in his career against the Bills since entering the league. We can talk about how great the Dolphins’ offense is all day, but their defense is their problem. They rank 10th worst in total yards per game allowed and the way Allen and the Bills play, the Fins are trouble this weekend on their weaker side of the ball. With Gabriel Davis on one side and Stefon Diggs on the other, the Dolphins’ cornerbacks will be under pressure all game. Both receivers could have big games as the Dolphins’ pass defense is one of their weaknesses at the moment. Miami had relatively easy opponents to start the season in the first 3 games, so this will be its real first test. We are backing the Bills with confidence. Buffalo is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against Miami. Miami is 1-12 SU in their last 13 games played in week 4.
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( Play released for September 30, 2023 )
Washington vs. Arizona
Bet: Washington -18.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Loser
The Washington Huskies may very well be the best team in all of college football this season. They clearly aren't afraid to run it up as they beat Boise State 56-19, Tulsa 43-10, Michigan State 41-7 and California 59-32. They have arguably the best offense (49.8 PPG) in the country right alongside the likes of Oregon and USC within the Pac-12. But they have a legit defense that is allowing just 17.0 PPG. Arizona takes a big step up in competition here after facing Northern Arizona, UTEP, Stanford and Mississippi State thus far. In their 21-20 win at Stanford last week as 13-point favorites, they lost star QB Jayden De Laura to a calf injury, and he is questionable to play this week. We don't give the Wildcats much of a chance to hang in this game even with De Laura, but it would just be an added bonus for us if he does not suit up. Washington has a bye on deck next week so they should be fully focused and avoid a letdown here. Kalen DeBoer is 9-1 ATS off a win by 21 points or more as a head coach. He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. The Huskies have too many weapons in the passing game, and Penix Jr. is putting together a special season, and may very well win the Heisman if he keeps this pace. The Huskies have three excellent receivers to pair with Penix Jr. and Arizona does not have a single interception all season. Sure, the Huskies are on the road, but that didn't bother them when the went into Michigan State and demolished the Spartans 41-7. Arizona was going to struggle here no matter what, but with their top quarterback and running back banged up or even out, it will be even worse. Take Washington to win and cover on the road.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Bet: Cleveland Browns -3/-115 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
We have a matchup between a pair of 1-1 teams as the Tennessee Titans head to Cleveland to take on the Browns in this Week 3 matchup. The Browns fell to the Steelers last Monday but the worst news was star running back Nick Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury during the game. He is a huge part of this Browns offense and is one of the best running backs in the league, and his impact on the field will be missed. The Browns are a run-first team and they just signed Kareem Hunt to replace Chubb, who should be productive alongside Jerome Ford, who put in a great performance against Pittsburgh. Deshaun Watson will be expected to pick up the slack and he has weapons like Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore and David Njoku at his disposal. The good news for the Browns is that the Titans have allowed over 300 passing yards in back-to-back weeks to start the season. They are ranked 5th-worst in passing yards allowed per game so this will be Watson’s chance to put them to the sword. On the other side, we have a Titans offense that tends to struggle at times with Ryan Tannehill under center. He already has 3 interceptions through 2 games and his offensive line isn’t helping him out, having already given up 8 sacks. The Browns’ defense has elite playmakers who can get to Tannehill, with Myles Garrett likely chasing him down all game long. We are confidently backing the Browns to get back on track with a win this week and cover the 3-point spread.
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( Play released for September 23, 2023 )
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame
Bet: Ohio State -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Push
The No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes head to South Bend next week for a primetime matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 4 of the college football season. Ohio State is undefeated through their first three games and ranked number six in the nation following a 53 point blowout victory of Western Kentucky. Offensively Ohio State has gotten whatever they want this season averaging more than 40 points per game on 474.7 yards. The Ohio State defense has been just as dominant giving up 223.7 yards per game as the Buckeyes have allowed only 20 points through three outings. Kyle McCord leads the Ohio State offense this season with 815 yards and six scores on 53 completions. TreVeyon Henderson is the top ball carrier with 191 yards and four touchdowns on 30 carries. Chip Trayanum is second on the team with 133 yards and one score on 19 carries, while Miyan Williams has added 73 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. Marvin Harrison Jr. remains one of the top receivers in the country with 304 yards and three touchdowns on 14 catches through three games. Notre Dame (4-0) comes into the week with wins over Navy, Tennessee State, NC State, and Central Michigan. They started off the season with a clean game against Navy, but have had some issues with penalties at home. This is a top ten matchup with huge College Football Playoff implications. Both teams come in undefeated looking to continue their trend in week four. Ohio State is simply the better team in this matchup, they boasts arguably the single-greatest rotation of overall skill talent in the nation, especially at wide receiver thanks to NFL-ready threats like Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka (3 TD catches each), combined with a strong rushing attack posting 5.2 ypc led by TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, who have 6 of OSU's 7 rushing scores, and it will show from the opening kickoff. The Buckeyes defense has been doing incredibly well, allowing 6.7 points on 223.7 total yards per game. The defense has been disruptive, with five sacks, three interceptions (one pick-six), 12 pass deflections, four forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. With some dominant players on the defensive line, it will be tough to move the ball against them. Take Ohio State this week as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year to get the win and cover as they remain undefeated. Final Score Prediction, Ohio State Buckeyes win and cover 42-31.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
We have a rematch of last season’s divisional-round playoff game here as the Chiefs battle the Jaguars. The Chiefs are coming into the game after being shocked by the Lions on Thursday Night Football in a 21-20 loss. Patrick Mahomes was doing all he could to win the game but he wasn’t getting much help from his receivers. They had a total of 8 dropped passes in crucial moments and could not execute when they needed to. Mahomes and the Chiefs will come into this game with an extra 3 days of preparation and that should benefit them greatly in this assignment against the Jaguars. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in the league and he should have his team prepared to beat the Jaguars once again. Another reason why we are taking the Chiefs -3 and fading the Jaguars is that this Jacksonville team is still young and we are not completely sold on them being ready to break out just yet. They are a team that still makes mistakes and we expect that to come to the surface with all the pressure that Kansas City puts them under. The Chiefs beat the Jags in the playoffs with an injured Mahomes and this time around they will have their star QB at full health. Mahomes should have his offense and his receivers ready for this game and we are expecting them to show up for him, especially after what happened in their opening game. We are taking the Chiefs to win this game and cover the 3-point spread.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Baltimore Ravens +3/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This is a game that we have been looking to bet since the offseason, and we are not deterred by the fact that the market is high on the Bengals this week. For starters, we’ve got a rare instance of double revenge as a bit of additional motivation with the Ravens, including a playoff loss in Cincinnati last January where the Ravens were in prime position to win midway through the 4th quarter. That effort was with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, so the upgrade in this game with a fully healthy Lamar Jackson is worth at least a touchdown. Furthermore, the Bengals struggled mightily in Week 1 and recent history has shown us that these early season struggles with Joe Burrow at quarterback typically extend until at least Week 3. The Cincinnati rust on offense might even be exacerbated this week given that Burrow is still working his way back into game shape following a calf injury suffered in training camp. Burrow is terrific, but he did have some of his worst games of the year last year against defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald and they’ve consistently had success in slowing down this Cincinnati offense (as long as all of their cornerbacks and safeties aren’t injured). This is a rare instance where the market is low on the Ravens in this spot, despite the fact that Baltimore looked much better than Cincinnati a week ago, winning by double digits while the Bengals were routed by the Browns. This is still a coaching mismatch in our view, and now we’ve got John Harbaugh catching more than a field goal, a spot where he has been excellent from a historical perspective in games against AFC North opponents. Even though the Ravens have already suffered some major injuries, we still can’t back Cincinnati at over a field goal. Let’s back Jackson, Harbaugh and company in a massive early-season tilt.
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Tennessee vs. Florida
Bet: Florida +6/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Dating back to 1976, Tennessee has never been favored by more than a single point at Florida. Tennessee hasn't won at Florida since 2001. This is simply too many points for the Florida Gators to be getting at home in a series they have absolutely dominated. This is Year 2 for Billy Napier, who did a great job at Louisiana. The Gators actually outgained Utah 346 to 270 for the game and easily could have won it in a misleading 24-11 defeat. The Gators bounced back with a 49-7 win over McNeese State last week. Tennessee lost a ton of talent on offense last year and Hendon Hooker is irreplaceable at quarterback. Joe Milton just isn't the same accurate passer that Hooker was, and he needs to be accurate to run this offense. Last week, Tennessee only beat Austin Peay 30-13 as a 49-point favorite, failing to cover that number by 32 points. That's an alarming result. After failing to live up to expectations at Wisconsin, we actually like what we`ve seen from Graham Mertz at quarterback for Florida. He is in a much more favorable system here to his skill set. Mertz is completing 73.8% of his passes for 526 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. He handled himself very well against that stout Utah defense in the opener. We like the fact that Florida has been battle-tested already while Tennessee played two cupcakes in rebuilding Virginia and FCS Austin Peay. We think we see Milton's deficiencies exploited by this Florida defense this week. If Tennessee manages to win this game, it's not going to be by more than one score. This one should go right down to the wire, and we are getting too many points with the home team here. Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida) after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more total yards are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS overt he last five seasons. Billy Napier went 5-0 ATS as an underdog in his first season at Florida last year, and four of those games came against ranked teams. Bet Florida Saturday.
TCU vs. Houston
Bet: TCU -7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This should be an interesting chess match between two quality coaches in Dykes and Holgorsen on Saturday night. The two coaches will soon get to lock horns annually in the very near future with Houston joining the Big 12 next season. On Saturday night, we like TCU to come out on top against what is a vastly inferior Houston secondary. While Rice has grown in respectability, they do not possess nearly the firepower or talent of TCU and were able to wrack up over 450 yards of total offense including over 400 through the air. While both teams struggled defensively last season and into this season, the TCU numbers were put up against vastly superior opponents as compared with the Cougars' schedule. Expect the Horned Frogs' passing attack to dominate this game against a Houston secondary that appears to be once again amongst the worst in the country. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars will be able to score against TCU's defense but don't have the depth of talent that Colorado possesses so we don't foresee them being able to match TCU score-for-score. We expect a highly entertaining, high-scoring game but one in which the overall talent level of TCU shines through much more brightly.
UMass vs. Eastern Michigan
Bet: UMass +9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The UMass Minutemen opened the season with a 41-30 upset win at New Mexico State to show how improved they are this season. Then they got blasted at Auburn and were competitive in a 28-41 loss to Miami Ohio. Now they get to take a big step down in class here against Eastern Michigan, and we expect them to stay within one score here if they don't pull off the upset. Eastern Michigan looks brutal this season. They only beat Howard 33-23 as a 19-point favorite and were actually outgained by 113 yards in that win. They gave up 398 yards and were held to 285 yards. Then last week they lost 25-6 to Minnesota as 18.5-point dogs and should have lost by more. They were outgained by 261 yards by the Golden Gophers and were held to just 152 total yards on offense. UMass wants revenge from a 7-point loss at Eastern Michigan last year. We think UMass is improved this season, while Eastern Michigan clearly is taking a step back. We like EMU in the role of the underdog, but the Eagles are terrible in the roll of the favorite under head coach Chris Creighton. Eastern Michigan is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games as a home favorite. The Eagles are 7-22 ATS in home games after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UMass) a bad team last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1992. Bet UMass Saturday.
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( Play released for September 16, 2023 )
LSU vs. Mississippi State
Bet: LSU -9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Although LSU lost to Florida State in the opener, this team still has a lot to play for and that urgency should shine on Saturday. On paper, the Tigers are simply the better team in terms of roster talent and that should shine in the second half. The margin for error is small after the defeat in Orlando to the 'Noles, meaning Kelly's team should be locked in and motivated the rest of the year. The way these teams match up on paper is a big mismatch. It begins with an LSU defense that's tough against the run facing Mississippi State's rush-heavy offensive approach. Passing on the Tigers is a much easier task, but the Bulldogs simply don`t have the personnel or playbook to make that happen. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has accounted for 708 of LSU's 1,081 total yards this season and can wreak havoc against a Mississippi State defense that allowed 431 total yards (six yards a play) to Arizona last week. The Bulldogs are especially vulnerable against the pass (340 yards allowed to the Wildcats), which bodes well for Daniels and a deep group of playmakers. Brian Thomas Jr. (13 catches) and Malik Nabers (11) pace the receiving corps, but Kyren Lacy (six), Aaron Anderson (two) and Chris Hilton Jr. (two) will see plenty of targets. On the other side, Mississippi State has a suspect secondary. They also got gashed by Arizona's QB on the ground last week, giving up 44 yards and a score on eight carries. LSU's Jayden Daniels has dynamic pass catchers to work with along with dangerous mobility. The Tigers shouldn't have any issues passing the ball all day long. LSU has dominated the all-time series against Mississippi State with a 77-36-3 record. The Tigers have defeated the Bulldogs in consecutive seasons, including a 31-16 home victory in 2022. LSU head coach Brian Kelly has his team’s attention since their season opening loss and will come out strong here. Just like last year, it'll be a double-digit win for LSU. Geaux for the Tigers against the spread as they continue their revenge tour for the Week 1 loss. Take the Tigers to win and cover as our NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NO Plays released for September 15, 2023
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -6/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Push
The Eagles manhandled the Vikings last year on their way to a 24-7 win in week two. They harassed Cousins all night and forced him into tough throws. Cousins threw three interceptions in that game and star wideout Jefferson was held to 48 yards receiving on six catches. The most concerning thing about the rematch this year is the status of Vikings' center Bradbury. Bradbury played just seven snaps in week one and his loss was evident as Cousins had two fumbles due to poor snap exchanges. Now, the Vikings could be again without Bradbury going up against arguably the best defensive front in the NFL. If Bradbury is unable to go, the Vikings push up the middle and could once again force Cousins into some difficult throws and create more turnovers. Coming off a three-turnover game in the loss to the Bucs, the Vikings can ill afford to lose the turnover battle on the road in Philadelphia. On the defensive end, the Vikings were decent against the Bucs but did allow Mayfield some critical runs late in the game to set up the Bucs' winning field goal. Their inability to stop Mayfield on the scramble does not bode well given the elusiveness of Hurts. Hurts played conservatively in New England and did seem to have difficulty with New England's team speed, particularly with the Patriots use of hybrid safeties instead of linebackers. The Vikings aren't as equipped as New England to offer the Eagles those kinds of looks. We expect Hurts to have a stronger game on the ground and for the Eagles WR duo of Smith and Brown to have more success down the field.
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Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Bet: New York Jets ML/+110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
This is going to be a transitional year for the Bills. They will have a new voice in the defensive room and have committed to keeping quarterback Allen out of harm's way. The Bills have also gone two straight seasons with a Super Bowl or Bust mentality only to fall short each season. The Jets meanwhile come into this matchup riding high with the acquisition of Rodgers and several other key pieces to an offense that held the team back in 2022. Rodgers may end up leveling off as the year progresses given his age and the potential hits he may take throughout the year. But, in the opener, the veteran quarterback will be fresh and ready to go against a Bills team that doesn't possess a dominant pass rush. We expect that Rodgers will have time in the pocket and that will not bode well for the Bills' defense. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have the kind of dynamic defense that can cause Allen problems. They have Gardner at cornerback that can be isolated on Diggs and, while he won't stop him, he can limit Diggs' numbers. That will allow the Jets to swing coverage over to Davis' side. Allen will eventually have to establish a reliable third receiver but that may take time. In front of a packed house of hungry Jets fans, Rodgers and company will pick up a season-opening win against the Bills and announce that the AFC East is up for grabs in 2023.
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Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Bet: Miami Marlins ML/+129 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Miami Marlins have come up clutch here down the stretch to try and make the playoffs. They have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in seven of those eight games. They have four wins as underdogs during this stretch. The Milwaukee Brewers return home from a 6-game road trip that concluded against the New York Yankees on Sunday. This feels like a bit of a letdown spot for them. The Brewers have huge righty/lefty splits this season, hitting just .220 and scoring 3.2 runs per game vs. left-handed starters. Lefty Jesus Luzardo has been dynamite of late for the Marlins. He is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 0.611 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing just 2 earned runs and 11 base runners in 18 innings with 21 K's. Those three starts have come against the Dodgers, Padres and Rays, so the competition has been stiff as well. Bet the Marlins Monday.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: BetMGM ) Winner
In Week 1 we will back this Divisional Underdog which falls into a very profitable system dating back several years. In the last eight years if you had blindly bet Divisional Dogs in Wk #1, you would have produced a 31-13-2 ATS record or 70.4% returns. Also, Divisional Road dogs of +6.5 points or less are on an 18-7-1 ATS streak since 2013. The Raiders have won 6 straight in this rivalry and don’t be surprised if they make it 7 in a row after Sunday. Las Vegas has a new QB in Jimmy Garoppolo after Derek Carr departed for New Orlean. Jimmy G is an upgrade considering Carr who is coming off a down year with a 60.8 completion % (lowest since 2014) and 24 TD’s with 14 INT’s. For all the knocks on Garoppolo he is 40-17 SU as a regular season starter in his career. He won’t have to carry the load either with RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams on the roster. Jacobs led the league in rushing yards a year ago and Adams caught 14 TD’s, most in the league. Denver brought in head coach Sean Payton to try and revive this team and namely QB Russell Wilson. Wilson struggled last season with a 38.7QBR and 16 TD’s to 11 INT’s, some of his worst numbers since coming to the NFL. The Broncos were 21st in rushing yards per game, last in scoring at 16.9PPG, 23rd in Yards Per Play (5.1) and 19th in passing yards per game. Denver certainly holds an advantage defensively in this match up, but we do expect Las Vegas to be better on that side of the football this season. In the two meetings last year the Raiders outgained the Broncos 792 total yards to 619 and they’ve won 3 straight in the series as an Underdog.
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Ole Miss vs. Tulane
Bet: Ole Miss -7/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, we like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. We also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. We do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak we mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins. Take Ole Miss as our GAME OF THE YEAR Bet Refund Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Play.
NO Plays released for September 8, 2023
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Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Detroit Lions +4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
What a great way to start the NFL season with a matchup between two great offenses. For Thursday’s NFL kickoff, we are taking the Lions with the points. Dan Campbell has done an excellent job in transforming the Lions into a winning team. Detroit has an explosive offense with Jared Goff at quarterback and Amon-Ra St. Brown at receiver. They should be able to exploit the Chiefs’ vulnerable defense, which last season ranked 22nd in pass defense. Kansas City looks set to struggle in that area once again and could be in trouble on Thursday night, and we are expecting Jared Goff to have no trouble moving the ball down the field throughout the game. And this is all before mentioning new running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who looks a red-hot prospect coming out of the draft and is another major weapon in Goff’s arsenal. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and we all know what a special talent he is. Mahomes and Travis Kelce are the best quarterback-tight end duo in the NFL. However, the Chiefs’ defense will likely need Mahomes to be on his A-game and help them out if they are to keep up with the Lions’ level of scoring that we are expecting. Don’t be shocked if the defending champs are playing catch-up against Detroit — Super Bowl hangovers are a thing and we are expecting one here. Overall we are predicting this to be a close game and for the Lions to at least cover the spread. Dan Campbell should have his team ready and fired up for this game, and this is a great opportunity for Detroit to try and show off their own Super Bowl credentials. Take the Lions to cover the spread and don’t be surprised if they win outright.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Bet: Under 9/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesars ) Winner
The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres wrap up their 3-game series this afternoon in a rubber match after the Padres evened the series with an 8-0 win last night. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit his second home run of the series and Michael Lorenzen struggled through another start for the Phillies since tossing a no-hitter on August 9. Philadelphia has now lost 4 of their last 6 games, but fortunately still hold a 4.5-game lead atop the NL Wild Card standings. San Diego on the other hand is 8 games under .500 and their playoff chances are all but shot. That doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t out to compete however, as the Padres have won 4 of their last 5 games ahead of tonight’s contest. To end the series, we’re rewarded with a marquee pitcher’s duel between Zack Wheeler and Michael Wacha. Wheeler owns a 3.62 ERA across 27 starts but has had a much stronger second half to the season. Over his last 8 starts, Wheeler is pitching to a 2.73 ERA and 7 of those have come as quality outings. Wacha has been equally as effective and owns a 2.85 ERA over 19 outings, and a 1.65 ERA since the beginning of May, covering 14 starts. Obviously, both of these lineups pose a threat at the plate, and the Padres scored 15 runs over the first 2 games. The Phillies teed off against Rich Hill in game 1, but were held to just 3 hits last night, and were unable to push across any runs despite 7 walks. Philadelphia will also be without the services of Trea Turner for a second straight night after being placed on paternity leave. This is the best pitching matchup of the series, and the Phillies are shorthanded without Turner. We are backing a low scoring affair and taking the under.
NO Plays released for September 5, 2023
NO Plays released for September 4, 2023
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LSU Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles
Bet: Florida State Seminoles ML/+108 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Of all the Week 1 contests, this matchup is one that many college football fans are looking forward to the most, and for good reason. Both of these teams are expected to be serious contenders in the College Football Playoff race and each side has a quarterback that is good enough to compete for the Heisman Trophy come December. Travis will have a strong offensive line in front of him, plus the new additions of Keon Coleman and tight end Jaheim Bell that will join an already excellent pass-catching group headlined by Johnny Wilson. The ‘Noles were a strong defensive unit a season ago as well, yielding just 21.8 points per game and boasting NFL-level talent led by Jared Verse. The matchup between the two defenses is where Florida State will hold the most significant advantage, as LSU lost 7 of its top 11 tacklers from last season. Harold Perkins is a superstar and possibly the best defensive player in college football, but the rest of the Tigers defense is a question mark and they’ll need time to gel with each other in the early going. Despite the neutral location, this game is still in Orlando and we expect the crowd to be overwhelming populated with Florida State fans, much like the Superdome was for LSU for last season’s meeting. The Seminoles are a team that we have been extremely high on since the start of the offseason, so this game represents a proof of concept for our optimism throughout the spring and summer. Travis took a major step forward last season and is now clearly one of the 5 quarterbacks in the country. Given the fact that we would favor Florida State at quarterback, the skill positions and in the trenches on both sides of the ball, it’s hard not to back the Seminoles in this massive tilt. We make this game closer to a pick ’em so we will pass up the 2.5 points here and take Florida State on the money line.
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Texas Tech vs. Wyoming
Bet: Wyoming +14/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Texas Tech is coming off a solid season where it finished 8-5 and made it to a second straight bowl game after missing out for three years. The Red Raiders were fortunate in some regards, however as half of their wins were by four points or less, which included three in overtime, so it easily could have been a reversal. It took 12 years for Texas Tech to be above .500 again in the Big 12, but again, some of that was luck related and the Red Raiders may be getting a little too much credit heading into this season and this opening game line is saying that. Texas Tech does bring a lot back including all 11 starters on offense but the defense remains an issue. Even though they allowed their lowest scoring average in a decade, it was still 29.2 ppg. Wyoming has quietly put together two straight winning seasons and over the last seven seasons, the Cowboys have finished below .500 only once and that was the 2-4 COVID season in 2020. Head coach Craig Bohl has turned the program around and Wyoming should be better this season as it returns 15 starters including 10 from an already strong defense that will match up well in this spot. The offense struggled as it averaged only 21.2 ppg and it needs a better passing attack. Quarterback Andrew Peasley is back and has experience to improve and it is vital. And it does not even have to be great as Wyoming is 11-3 over the last two seasons when it completes 55 percent of more of its passes and that is not a hard bar to attain and it can do so against this Red Raiders defense.
Toledo Rockets vs. Illinois Fighting Illini ( Plays released for September 2, 2023 )
Bet: Toledo +9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Toledo Rockets are the class of the MAC this season. They won 9 games last year with four of their five losses coming by one score. So they only lost one game by this kind of margin, which came against one of the best teams in the country in Ohio State. The Rockets now return 16 starters from that squad and have a ton of talent. They bring back QB Finn, all of their top rushers and each of their top two receivers. They also return four starters along the offensive line plus get back Tyler Long from injury and he has 19 career starts with the team. The Toledo defense returns eight starters from a unit that only allowed 25.1 points and 326 yards per game last season. They have the defense that can keep them in this game with Illinois, plus they'll make enough plays on offense to give the Fighting Illini all they can handle. We think this is a great time to 'sell high' on Illinois after a surprising 2022 campaign in which they went 8-5 after losing 19-10 to Ole Miss in the bowl game. Illinois is going to have a good defense again, but they do lose three of their top four tacklers and coordinator Ryan Walters left for Purdue. Our biggest problem with Illinois is the offense, which loses QB Tommy DeVito and leading rusher Chase Brown, who rushed for 1,643 yards and 10 TD Last year. Illinois is not going to be able to score enough points to consistently get margin this season, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us with this offense is asking too much. Illinois is 17-32 ATS in its last 49 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Bet Toledo Saturday.
NO Plays released for September 1st, 2023
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NC State vs. Connecticut
Bet: Connecticut +15/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
It was a disaster of a start for Connecticut and first year head coach Jim Mora in his first season in Storrs as it lost its first four FBS games by an average of 33.8 ppg. The Huskies then turned a corner as they defeated a very good Fresno St. team to start a 5-1 run and they became bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. While they lost to Marshall, the added practice time was very beneficial and they bring back 17 starters. The defense has eight coming back on a unit that made dramatic improvements from the previous four seasons. Joe Fagnano on the starting quarterback job over Zion Turner and this is pretty significant. He was a multi-year starter at Maine, where he threw for more than 5,600 yards and he is familiar with the Huskies system as their new offensive coordinator is Nick Charlton, who was the Black Bears head coach from 2019 through 2021. NC State is coming off a disappointing season as it closed 4-5 following a 4-0 start and while it is not a complete rebuild, many key parts have to be replaced. Quarterback was an issue last season but there is help with Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia and reuniting with offensive coordinator Robert Anae so this should be a potent part of the offense but later in the season. The Wolfpack lost three of their top four receivers while the offensive line will be a work in progress, coming in ranked No. 10 out of 14 teams in the ACC. The defense finished No. 20 overall and No. 15 in scoring but six starters have to be replaced. NC State rolled over Connecticut 41-10 last season so there is revenge in play for the Huskies and the 23-point line swing from that game is telling us the story as well. Take Connecticut to cover the spread.
NO Plays released for August 30, 2023
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Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/-125 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
This is a matchup of two struggling ball clubs. The Texas Rangers have lost 9 of their last 11 while the New York Mets have lost 6 of their last 8. The visitors have a significant matchup advantage in this one considering both starting pitchers are lefty, and the Rangers crush lefties. Jose Quintana (3.73 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) gets the start for the Mets coming off a 5.1 inning outing where he surrendered 5 runs and 9 hits. The lefty’s 4.61 xERA and 4.90 xFIP suggest his most recent start could be the beginning of some overdue regression, and we wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers continue to rise against this Rangers lineup. Texas ranks 1st in the American League with a .281 BA against left-handed pitching this season. The Mets, on the other hand, are towards the bottom coming in at 25th in BA (.235) against lefties. They face lefty Andrew Heaney in this one, who’s been rather inconsistent as a whole but a solid arm at times. Heaney holds a 4.34 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with a 3.00 ERA in 5 starts this month. He struggles in his last two outings, surrendering 14 hits and 6 runs in 8 total innings, but we believe this is a solid get-right spot against a Mets lineup that hasn’t put up more than 3 runs in over a week. With all things considered, give us the Rangers on the money line.
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Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets
Bet: Texas Rangers ML/-135 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Texas Rangers head to Queens for a 3-game set beginning on Monday. The Mets will have quite a bit of influence on the AL West over the next few days as they play Texas and then the Mariners. The Rangers have fallen on hard times lately, losing 9 of their last 10 games. They have fallen out of 1st place (now held by the Mariners), and they are in danger of falling out of a playoff spot if they do not correct their course quickly. They are in as good of a position to win on Monday as they can hope for, and they need to capitalize. The Rangers will send Jon Gray to the mound. He has been stable and reliable on the season as a whole, although he did give up 5 runs in 4 innings in his last start. Prior to that, he had 2 games of 7 innings and a combined 1 run, and we imagine the last outing was an outlier. Some days you just don’t have your good stuff. He will face Tylor Megill, who is really just not very good, and is typical of the Mets’ season — playable, but still well below average. He rarely goes beyond the 5th inning, and he rarely keeps a clean sheet. The Rangers, although struggling on offense, should still be able to snap out of it against Megill. The Mets mustered only 7 runs over the entire weekend against the Angels. If those struggles continue, there will be all the more reason to back the Rangers. We like the Rangers to get back in the win column.
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Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Chicago White Sox ML/-122 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The White Sox have lost four of their last six games. Despite their slump, they are playing well offensively, scoring 14 runs in their last three games. Even though Blackburn has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up six runs in his last three starts. He has struggled against the White Sox, with a 0-3 record in four starts against them. He gave up 14 runs in those starts and with Oakland having the worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the White Sox in this game. The Athletics have won four of their last five games, but they’ve lost five of their last eight road games. They are also playing well offensively and scored 20 runs in their last three games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they haven’t hit the ball well against right-handers and Clevinger has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, giving up nine runs in his last six starts. He gave up five runs in his last three home starts and will keep Oakland’s offense in check. Go with Chicago to cover the money line.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/-130 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
Since being stretched out into a starting role with the Cubs, Javier Assad has performed very well in Chicago’s rotation. The right-hander has allowed 1, 2, and 2 earned runs across 7.0, 6.0, and 5.1 innings pitched in those respective starts. Assad is not a high K% pitcher, and never really has been, so his location and command of the zone is absolutely crucial. Despite his 10.2% BB% ranking just 24th percentile on the season, Assad has only allowed 5 of the last 73 batters he’s faced to see that 4th ball. If he can continue to limit walks against this Pirates team ranking 2nd in BB% against right-handed pitching, he should be in for another quality start. The Pirates ability to draw walks has helped their lineup score more runs of late, but they are still an inconsistent group dependent on stringing together production with mainly youthful bats. The Cubs bullpen behind Assad ranks 7th in ERA and 9th in WHIP across the last 30 days, and they aren’t overworked as a unit. The Pirates will use another bullpen game today headlined presumably by Osvaldo Bido in a bulk role. Bido hasn’t pitched since the 20th, lining him up for a solid workload today after 69 pitches in his last outing across 15 batters. The right-hander has been up-and-down performance wise this season and draws a matchup against a Cubs offense that has been red-hot since the all-star break. Their lineup against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days alone ranks 6th in wOBA with the 4th lowest K% and a wRC+ of 116. They are one of the more well-rounded and lengthy lineups in MLB thanks to the deadline acquisition of Jemier Candelario, and their ability to hit either handedness will be massive against this bullpen-heavy approach from Pittsburgh. The Cubs are fifth in baseball in runs scored per game and have scored over six runs per game in the last three games. Expect a comfortable win for the Cubbies on Saturday night.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers ML/-125 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox begin their 3-game series with the Dodgers holding a 12-game lead in the NL West. Meanwhile, the Red Sox continue to fight their way into a AL wild-card spot, sitting 3.5 games back of the Houston Astros with whom they just split a series. Lance Lynn takes the mound for his 26th start of the season, and 5th since teaming up with the Dodgers at the trade deadline. It’s been a complete turnaround with the Dodgers, as Lynn has gone at least 5.0 innings in each of his starts with a 1.44 ERA. It’s difficult to predict how long that’ll last however, as Lynn pitched to a 6.47 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox. Kutter Crawford counters for the Red Sox, making his 17th starts and 25th appearance. Kutter owns a 3.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, but he’s performed better as a reliever. In 74.1 innings as a starter, Kutter’s ERA sits at 4.24 as compared to a 1.66 ERA across 21.2 innings in relief. Kutter has performed well over his last 3 outings, but has gone up against the Royals, Tigers, and Yankees. The Dodgers pose a much larger threat, ranking 3rd in runs scored and 2nd in home runs. On top of that, they’re the hottest team in baseball, going 19-3 in the month of August. Lynn still has to prove himself in our opinion, but the Dodgers are rolling right now and we are not betting against that lineup. Back the Dodgers to take the first of three games in Boston.
NO Plays released for August 24, 2023
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels - Game 1
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+140 ( sportsbook: Caesar ) Winner
The Cincinnati Reds need every win they can get in the midst of a tight NL Central race and could win back-to-back series this afternoon for the first time in over a month. The only thing standing in their way?! Shohei Ohtani. The two-way AL MVP shoe-in has been incredible with both the bat and ball in his hands this season. On the mound he posts an impressive 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Ohtani enters this matchup with a whopping 0 earned runs in over a month (19 IP). While all eyes are expected to be on Ohtani, the Reds are rolling with an excellent arm in Andrew Abbott. Five of his 14 appearances this season have been shoutout starts contributing to his excellent 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He falls in the 73rd percentile in xBA and 75th percentile in K% facing an Angels lineup that has struggled in the second half of the season. Over the last 30 days, the Angels offense ranks 26th with a wRC+ of 84 and 27th in BA. When Ohtani and Abbott are eventually pulled, the Reds have the slight bullpen advantage with a combined 3.93 ERA compared to the Angels’ 4.57 ERA. Even though Abbott’s great, the Angels have the edge on the mound today. With that being said, we are not worried about Ohtani. We are worried about everyone else around him and we can’t justify a near -160 money line price against a Reds team with a solid arm on the mound and an offense capable of lighting up the scoreboard when they’re playing well. With all things considered, Cincinnati made us money yesterday at + odds, and we get another chance to cash once again on them at a really great price. We`ll take a shot at the Reds money line against the face of MLB.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+124 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Reds and Angels earned an extra day off as the start of their series was delayed a day due to weather. California was under water yesterday as hurricanes and earthquakes ravaged the area, and a picture of Dodger Stadium went viral as the parking lot around the stadium was completely flooded. In Anaheim, a little more north of the area, it was still very wet and forced the series opener to be delayed. That means Graham Ashcraft and Lucas Giolito will pitch today, and then there will be a doubleheader tomorrow. Ashcraft started the season as one of Cininnati’s best pitchers but went through a bad slump in May and June. The right-hander posted a 9.21 ERA in May and then a 10.38 ERA in June as the all-star break couldn’t come soon enough for him. That break was exactly what he needed since he has posted a 2.38 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 7 starts in the second half of the season. The Angels needed starting pitching at the deadline, so they went out and acquired Lucas Giolito. At the time, it looked like a great decision. But we’re now in late August, and it’s looking more and more like a huge mistake. Giolito is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 4 starts with the Angels. He has yet to allow less than 3 runs in an outing, so he hasn’t been the strong addition the Angels front office was hoping for. Because of how bad Giolito has looked in an Angels uniform, we are continuing to fade him at really good odds today until he improves.
NO Plays released for August 21, 2023 )
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML/-110 ( sportsbook: Caesar ) Winner
The Blue Jays split their last four games, but they’ve won five of their last eight road games. They are playing well offensively and scored 17 runs in their last four games. Even though Greene was pitching well before he went on the 60-day IL, he hasn’t pitched well at home this season and gave up 11 runs in his last three home starts. He will also be dealing with some rust and he’s facing a Toronto team that has done a good job hitting right-handers this season, so expect him to have a hard time slowing down the Blue Jays in this game. The Reds have won three of their last five games. They’re not playing well offensively and scored only eight runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Ryu has looked good on the mound since his first start of the season, giving up two runs in his last two starts. He has also had a lot of success against the Reds, with a 5-2 record in eight starts against them. He didn’t give up a run in his last two starts against the Reds and will keep their offense in check. Go with Toronto to cover the money line as our Game of the Year Bet Refund Guaranteed Play.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Seattle Mariners ML/+160 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) - Bonus Play Winner
If you have been backing the Seattle Mariners, you have had a profitable weekend. The Mariners have been underdogs to the Astros all series, and they have won on Friday and Saturday anyway. On Saturday, they were +125 to win, and they pummelled the Astros 10-3. On Sunday, they are an even heavier underdog. Winners of 5 straight games, the Mariners are red hot, and we are all over this money line. The books have this game heavily juiced toward the defending champs, probably because Seattle is using a rookie pitcher. Emerson Hancock will be making only his third career start. Hancock is yet another elite pitching prospect developed in the Mariners’ system, and we like his chances. He has gone 5 innings in each of his 2 starts, one of them a 2-hit, 1-run outing against the Padres, and the other a 5-run outing against the Royals. We don’t expect him to keep a clean sheet, but we do expect him to hold his own. The Astros are starting Hunter Brown, who has been a steady hand all season. He has made all his starts, and that means a lot for a team with as many pitching injuries as Houston has endured. He has faced Seattle once this season, and it wasn’t great as he gave up 5 runs over 3 innings of work. The Astros might well win this game, but they are favored far too heavily. Julio Rodriguez, in case you missed it, is currently the hottest hitter in MLB history—4 straight games of 4+ hits, and an MLB-record 17 hits in 4 games. With the Mariners playing like this, this is too much value to ignore.
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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Bet: Under 7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) - Bonus Play Winner
The Cleveland Guardians look to close out this series with a win against divisional rival the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers defeated the Guardians 4-3 in yesterday’s matchup and it seems as though the Tigers have the Guardians’ number as they have won 6 of their 9 meetings this season. All 9 games have been relatively low-scoring with the total going under today’s number in 8 of them. The Tigers are expected to have Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound and in his last start against the Boston Red Sox last Sunday was a rough one as he allowed 10 hits and 6 runs. However, in his previous start against the Guardians was the polar opposite as he did not allow a run and struck out 8 batters in a 5-0 Tigers victory on May 10. The Guardians are expected to start Logan Allen and in the last 3 starts, he has allowed 2 or fewer runs in each game, with them all going under. The total has gone under in 5 straight meetings between these teams and with starting pitchers who have been limiting their opponents, we expect another low-scoring game.
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San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Bet: San Francisco Giants ML/+102 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Loser
The Giants will have Logan Webb on the mound on Saturday. Webb came through with another gem last time out. He was one out away from a complete game shutout before allowing a hit and one run in 8.2 innings against the Rangers in a no-decision. The Giants ace has allowed only one run in back-to-back outings and has reported a stellar 3.26 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP accompanied by a 9-9 record in 163 innings on the season. Webb has silenced the Braves, recording a minuscule 1.33 ERA with a 2-0 record in 27 innings. San Francisco usually wins games with the pitching. They shut out the Rays in a 7-0 win on Tuesday but the offensive struggles continued and they dropped the series. The Braves will give Yonny Chirinos another start. Chirinos had more trouble in his previous outing, allowing six runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings against the Mets in the previous start, and was pelted with the loss. Chirinos has been horrible since he was acquired in a deal with the Rays, posting a 9.33 ERA in four starts and has a 5.22 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP accompanied by a 5-5 record in 81 innings on the year.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Dodgers snuck out a 1-0 win over Milwaukee Thursday to sweep the Brewers to make it 11 straight wins as they continue to dominate as the playoffs loom, going 15-1 over their last 16 games. Their division lead is now double digits over the Giants so it continues to be on cruise control. Miami won the series opener in Houston but dropped the final two games prior to the off day yesterday. The Marlins had won five of their previous six games before the two recent losses and they remain right in the Wild Card race as they are tied with the Cubs and Reds for the third spot. Sandy Alcantara has not been on the same level as last season but he has had some dominating performances of late. Over his last four starts, he has two complete games where he allowed just one run in each of those and also tossed eight shutout innings against Phillies. His WHIP is now 1.18 on the season. Tony Gonsolin started the season late and was lights out for a while with a 1.93 ERA through his first nine starts but over his last 10 starts, he has posted a 6.28 ERA. The Dodgers have gone 6-1 over his last seven starts, but he has benefitted from 9.3 rpg of support. Miami is in a dogfight for the final wild-card berth in the National League, tied with the Reds and Cubs for the bottom spot. This is a big game for Miami, and we trust Alcantara more than Gonsolin at this point of the season.
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New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Bet: New York Mets ML/-134 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The New York Mets will be facing off against the Cardinals in St. Louis on Thursday night in game 1 of their series. Pitching for the Mets will be Jose Quintana, who has a 0-4 record with a 3.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Despite not having a win on his record, Quintana has been impressive as of late. He has pitched for 6+ innings in all of his last 4 starts, holding teams such as the Braves and Orioles to 2 runs or less. In the month of August, Quintana has posted a 2.89 ERA. Look for Quintana to continue his successful month in this one. Coming to the mound for the Cardinals will be the veteran pitcher, Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has struggled this season, putting together a 3-7 record with a 8.78 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. He sits in the 1st percentile for nearly all pitching percentiles and in the bottom 1% of the league for xERA (7.79), to say he has lost his touch is an understatement. He has been quite bad at home this year, having a 9.26 ERA and 2.23 WHIP. Coming off 2 consecutive starts in which he gave up 7+ runs, it’s hard to back him in any way. We`ll side with the hot pitcher in Quintana while fading Wainwright who has a 33.75 ERA this month, give us the Mets moneyline in this one.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 RL/+115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Reds will be starting Abbott on Wednesday and he has been rock solid this season. He has an ERA of 2.75 during home games and an ERA of 0.75 versus the American League. Abbott will shut down a Cleveland team that has struggled on offense this year. They have scored the fourth fewest amount of runs and have hit the fewest amount of home runs. Cleveland will not be able to match the scoring pace of the Reds. They will also be starting Syndergaard, who is making his fourth appearance in a Cleveland jersey. Syndergaard has an ERA of 9.21 during road games this year making him an easy target for the Reds to go yard on. The Reds have scored the seventh most amount of runs this year which will lead them to a win on Wednesday. Take the Reds to cover with the run line.
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Oakland Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Bet: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 RL/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Oakland Athletics look to break out of a 4 game losing streak as they face the Cardinals in game 2 of the series. The Athletics briefly had a 5-3 lead in the 7th inning last night before giving up 4 runs including a 3 run triple by Jordan Walker. With this road loss, it makes 8 straight games that the Athletics lost on the road. The Athletics have also allowed 7 or more runs in 3 of the 4 last games and as the bullpen is mightily struggling, we may see a repeat performance but this time, the Cardinals are going to be able to maintain the lead. The Cardinals are expected to have Dakota Hudson start tonight and he has pitched pretty solid allowing only 3 runs in his last two starts which resulted in a Cardinals win. The Athletics are bringing out Spenser Watkins who has not pitched since October of 2022 when he was on the Baltimore Orioles. Watkins owns a relatively high ERA of 5.85 for his career. Athletics’ road woes will continue as the Cardinals should not give the Athletics any hope of getting a win here tonight. Cardinals have won 4 out of their last 5 games and should get another win here in dominant fashion. Cardinals -1.5 is the play in this spot.
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NY Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5/-102 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Braves have the best offense in the MLB. No matter who is up to bat, they are going to be a threat to hit a home run. Schmidt has allowed 17 home runs this season, so he has given up some long balls. Clarke also allows opponents to hit better off him when he pitches on the road. With the Braves ability to smack the ball around, they should be in for a good game in this one. As long as the Braves keep hitting as they have been, they will cover this spread. Fried is still one of the better pitchers in the game, even though he is coming off a little bit of a rough outing. He has made seven starts this season, and he has allowed just one run or fewer in five of those starts. New York has been struggling all season at the plate, so despite their ability to hit the ball recently, Fried should be able to shut them down. The Yankees are hitting the ball better, but they are not playing well as a team. Atlanta's offense is very good, and Max Fried is a hard pitcher to bet against. The Braves have gone an awesome 86-39 (33.6 net games) in his starts, including 43-18 (+12.3 net games) in his 61 home starts. The Braves just took 3 of 4 from the Mets and outscored them, 40-10. The Pinstripes have floundered this season, with a 60-58 record. And they've now lost six straight road series to St. Louis, Colorado, Anaheim, Baltimore, the White Sox, and Miami. In those six series, the Yankees went 5-13. We are going to take the Braves to win this game and cover the spread.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/+150 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
This is simply way too good a price to pass up on the Guardians. Rays have won the first two in this series, but it's not like Cleveland isn't putting up a fight. Guardians have suffered to 1-run losses, falling 8-9 on Friday and then 5-6 on Saturday. Cleveland out hit the Rays in both games. They will have Tanner Bibbee on the mound in this one and he's been rock solid all season. Bibee has a 2.92 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 18 starts. He's got a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts and is coming off a gem against the Blue Jays, where he held Toronto scoreless in 7 innings of work, striking out 6 and walking 0. Bibee has been nothing short of stellar since the start of July, posting a 1.70 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 42.1 innings and winning all four of his decisions during that stretch. It is a great sign for the Guardians because they have not been swinging the bat. Entering play Saturday, they have scored the third-fewest runs in MLB, with the fourth-lowest OPS. The injury to Josh Naylor two weeks ago has really put a damper on the middle of their lineup, and they simply cannot generate consistent run support for their strong pitching. They hold the third-lowest ERA in baseball, and we like the Guardians here in a low-scoring pitcher’s duel. The Rays have lost 11 of 16 at Tropicana Field. Take Cleveland.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 11, 2023 )
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Houston Astros -1 ARL/-125 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Los Angeles Angels head on the road to face the Houston Astros in game 1 of their series on Friday night. Pitching for the Angels will be Reid Detmers, who has a 2-8 record with a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Outside of K% (82nd percentile), his percentile rankings are not so hot. He sits in the 31st percentile for xBA, 47th percentile for xSLG and 41st percentile for BB%. He performs worse on the road, which is likely why he is yet to come out victorious in an away game this season (5.49 ERA on the road compared to 4.36 ERA at home). Coming off a rough outing against the Mariners, the Astros bats should be excited to see him on the rubber in this one. Toeing the rubber for the Astros will be the newly acquired Justin Verlander, who has a 6-5 record with a 3.15 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Verlander is essentially the opposite of Detmers when it comes to percentile rankings, as he is in the lower end for K% (31st percentile) but ranks well for xBA (70th percentile), xSLG (75th percentile) and BB% (53rd percentile). Friday's game will be Verlander's first home game since being traded back to the Astros at the trade deadline. He's held eight straight opponents to three or fewer runs and surrendered one or zero runs in five of those starts. We are confident that he will continue to roll in his return to Houston against an Angels squad that let down their fans all season and especially lately, 2-7 straight-up this month, LA is slashing .226 BA/.272 OBP/.372 SLG/.645 OPS and scoring just 3.7 runs per game. The Astros, who took two of three in Baltimore last series, have hit left-handed pitchers pretty well this season, slashing .264/.328/.450/.777. In Detmer's two previous outings against Houston this year, he surrendered eight runs in 11 frames, and following a poor outing in his last start, we believe he's prone to another poor performance on Friday. Houston are 30-11 SU in their last 41 games when playing at home against LA Angels. We will be siding with the Astros’ alternate run line in this matchup.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 10, 2023 )
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+105 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Houston Astros and the Baltimore Orioles meet Thursday in MLB action from Oriole Park. This matchup marks the final installment in a three-game series. Houston eked out a victory in the Tuesday opener, then in game two the Astros rolled to a six-run win to keep it going. Baltimore is 17-4 SU in their last 21 games played on a Thursday. They are playing well offensively and scored 27 runs in their last five home games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they have hit the ball well against right-handers and Brown has been shaky on the mound in recent starts and has given up at least two runs in six straight starts. He gave up eight runs in his last three road starts and will have a hard time slowing down the Orioles in this game. The Astros have won three of their last five games. They are playing well offensively and scored 17 runs in their last three road games. But, they will struggle offensively in this game because they don’t hit the ball as well against right-handers and Kremer has done a good job on the mound for the Orioles, especially at home where he gave up five runs in his last two starts. He gave up just one run in two starts against the Astros and with Baltimore having the sixth-best bullpen in the league, they won’t have trouble keeping Houston’s offense in check. Baltimore has gone 75 consecutive series of at least two decisions without being swept, so we will go with Baltimore to cover the money line and keep that historic streak alive.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 9, 2023 )
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Bet: Boston Red Sox -1.5 RL/-107 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
Jordan Lyles will get his 22nd start of the season for the Royals tonight and if there was an award for the worst pitcher in each league, Lyles would have locked up his spot for the AL months ago. His 5.35 FIP ranks worst among all qualified pitchers this season, as does his 6.24 ERA. Among the bottom 21 pitchers in ERA, Lyles .264 BABIP is by far the lowest, and it is a mark sitting well below his career-long .302 BABIP. He ranks 6th worst with his 9.5% K-BB% as well. Pitching at Kauffman Stadium has helped improve his season-long numbers, as his road ERA sits at 7.56 with opponents hitting .294 against him. Heading into Fenway Park to take on a potent Red Sox lineup in favorable hitting conditions is not likely to help those numbers. Boston in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching ranks just above Kansas City at 8th in wOBA, while sitting 9th in hard-hit rate and producing a 107 wRC+. Active Red Sox bats have a combined .883 OPS across 88 PA against Lyles and having 6 lefty bats in the lineup will be massive as that is his lesser split. The Royals bullpen ranks 23rd in WHIP and 29th in ERA across the last 30 days and have sent away their valuable pieces at the trade deadline. Boston is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games when playing at home against Kansas City. Kansas City is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games played on a Wednesday when playing on the road. Kansas City is 4-15 SU in their last 19 games on the road. We expect Boston to have scoring chances throughout this game and enough runs scored to cover the runline.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for August 8, 2023 )
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1 ARL/-130 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
The Rays have won five of their last seven games. They have played well offensively during that stretch and scored 20 runs in their last three games. Expect them to play well offensively in this game because they’ve done a great job batting against right-handers and Mikolas has struggled on the mound in recent starts, especially on the road where he gave up nine runs in his last three starts. He gave up 12 runs in two career starts against the Rays and with St. Louis having the eighth-worst bullpen in the league, they will have a hard time slowing down the Rays in this game. The Cardinals have lost four of their last six games and four of their last six road games. They’re not playing well offensively and scored only 10 runs in their last three games. Their offensive struggles will continue in this game because Eflin has done a great job on the mound for the Rays, giving up five runs in his last three starts. He gave up two runs in his last home start against the Cardinals and will keep their offense in check once again. Go with Tampa Bay to cover the alternate run line.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/-130 ( sportsbook: WynnBet ) Winner
The Cubs are the winningest team since the All-Star break, while also scoring the most runs since the break. The Mets had lost 6 games in a row prior to last night’s victory while failing to score more than 3 runs in 5 of those 6 losses. And every one of those previous trends was totally upended when the Mets exploded for an 11-2 victory on Monday. We expect order to be restored on Tuesday, and it appears that Monday’s result has pushed down the price for us as well. The pitching matchup is an interesting one, as we’ll see Jameson Taillon versus Carlos Carrasco. At the risk of oversimplifying things, Taillon has been really good lately, and Carrasco has been really bad. To elaborate on that more, Taillon had a really rough patch in the middle of the summer, but he has since turned in 5 solid outings in a row. He has given up 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, and the Cubs have won all 5 of those games. He is in a good place right now. Carrasco? Not so much. Carrasco looks like a guy who is washed up or at least pitching injured, which is a shame, given all that he has overcome to get back into the league. He has given up a combined 21 runs in his last 4 starts, and only once has he made it into the 5th inning. Add to that the heavily depleted bullpen of the Mets, and this is a tough spot for New York to win. NY Mets are 4-21 SU in their last 25 games when playing as the underdog. The Cubs should get back on track on Tuesday night. We will go with Taillon and the Cubs to win convincingly here.
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Over 10/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Mitch Keller has fallen apart after an amazing breakthrough start to the season that earned him his first all-star appearance. The Pirates’ right-hander has struggled mightily of late, allowing 8, 6, and 9 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts made. Keller began the season with a 0.97 WHIP and 2.44 ERA across his first 10 starts spanning 62.2 IP. Since then, the Pirates all-star has tossed 76 innings with a 1.49 WHIP and 5.92 ERA. His command has slipped dramatically in terms of both more walks issued, and more hanging breaking balls over the middle of the plate. Keller’s barrel rate has fallen all the way to 28th percentile, and highest since his 2020 season. His struggles against left-handed batters are most distinct, allowing an .832 OPS with 13 of his 18 home runs allowed coming against those lefties. The largest issue with his pitch mix against lefty bats is his poor cutter. Initially this pitch helped his overall pitch mix but now the pitch is by far his worst performing offering. That pitch allowed a .559 wOBA across 21 batted ball events last month and threw 4 batted ball events this month he has allowed 3 hits and a home run. He uses this pitch primarily to those lefty bats and Atlanta has some of the more powerful ones in the game including Matt Olson and his torrid home run pace. As a whole, Atlanta is the deepest and most dangerous offense in the sport. Behind Keller is a Pirates bullpen that has pitched well in the last 30 days but is still a youthful group that has performed very streakily this season. Yonny Chirinos flipped from one World Series hopeful team in the Rays to another in the Braves with his mid-season team change, but despite 2 amazing organizations finding him useful, we struggle to ever back him. The right-hander has made 2 starts with his new team, allowing a combined 7 earned runs in 8.2 IP against the Brewers and Angels. Only 61 and 75 pitches in those starts have resulted in heavier bullpen usage late, and we shouldn’t expect more than 5 innings or so from Chirinos once again tonight. He ranks just 1st percentile this season in K%, rarely ever recording a 3rd strike and instead allowing a ton of balls in play. You may think he suppresses contact well if he allows so much of it, but that isn’t the case with his batted ball profile leaving a ton to be desired. Chirinos ranks just 5th percentile in xBA, 8th percentile in xSLG, and 17th percentile in hard-hit rate. The Pirates don’t have the most explosive offense on a consistent basis, but their youthful and talented prospects have shown flashes of their upside in recent weeks. This includes smashing Spencer Strider for 6 earned runs in under 3 innings last night despite no long balls. Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis are hitting the ball very hard and should have solid individual matchups in the first half of this game. We like the over in this matchup.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 7, 2023 )
Chicago Cubs vs. NY Mets
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/+105 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Chicago Cubs are headed to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets in game 1 of their series Monday night. Pitching for the Cubs will be Drew Smyly, who has a 8-7 record with a 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His percentile rankings are nothing to brag about outside of the fact that he does a good job preventing hard hits. He sits in the 37th percentile for xBA, 36th percentile for K%, 44th percentile for xSLG and 58th percentile for BB%. Smyly has pitched much better in away games this year, having a 3.26 ERA away compared to his 6.26 home ERA. On the mound for the Mets will be Kodai Senga, who has a 7-6 record with a 3.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Outside of struggling with giving free passes (12th percentile for BB%), his percentile rankings are respectable. Senga has good numbers at home this season, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, but his recent start worries us as he allowed 11 hits against the Royals. With an xERA of 3.65, we expect the scorching hot Cubs offense to get some runs on the board against the struggling Mets. NY Mets are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games when playing at home against Chicago Cubs. Chicago Cubs are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games. We`ll continue to ride the Cubs’ impressive performances and take them for plus odds in this one.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 6, 2023 )
Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 RL/-105 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
After ripping off 7 straight wins, the Royals finally came back to earth and took a loss on Saturday to the Phillies. During that entire stretch, the Royals have been underdogs, and they have been cashing plus-money tickets for bettors bold enough to back them. There is profit to be made if you believe in them again on Sunday, but we are going to back the Phillies. This game is only really playable on the Run Line, so we are backing Philadelphia to cover. Taijuan Walker has been strong for the Phillies all season. He isn’t untouchable, but he keeps the ball in the yard, and he almost always limits the damage to a couple of runs. Zack Greinke will go for the Royals. The Royals did win his last outing, a 5-inning and 1-run effort against the Mets, but we think the Phillies will be much more effective with the bats. We do not expect the Royals to start a new winning streak, and it is really just a question of whether we think Philly can cover. The Run Line, either way, is priced around -105, depending on the site. We are going to play the Philadelphia side, and we expect them to cover for a second straight day.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Atlanta Braves look to bounce back from yesterday’s loss against the Chicago Cubs which snapped their 3 game winning streak. The Cubs won yesterday 8-6 led by getting a fast start in the game with 5 runs scored in the 1st inning. Both teams have been playing pretty well and it shows with this series being tied 1-1. Both the Cubs and Braves have won 4 out of their last 6 games. In the last 7 games, both are ranked top 10 in batting average, on base percentage and top 2 in slugging percentage as the Braves rank 1st with .600 followed by the Cubs with close to .058. This game will possibly be won by the pitching. The Braves are expected to start veteran Charlie Morton. In his last 3 starts, the Braves have lost all 3 games. In his last start against the Los Angeles Angels, Morton allowed 3 home runs. The Cubs are expected to start All Star Justin Steele who has won his last 3 starts. With him being the better pitcher in this matchup, we are quite surprised that the Cubs are an underdog in this spot especially at home as well. We just can't pass up the Cubs at home, at this price, with a guy like Justin Steele on the mound. Charlie Morton has been hit or miss all year. He's not been great of late, posting a 6.45 ERA and 1.890 WHIP in his last 3 starts, and all 3 losses as massive favorites (-220, -140, -205). Taking the Cubs to win it in this spot.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 5, 2023 )
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-148 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Loser
The Rays and Tigers pick back up on Saturday afternoon, following an 8-0 win by Tampa on Friday night. The Tigers only amassed 3 total hits, and this game was never in question after Tampa plated 4 runs in the first 2 frames. Given that context, it is suspicious that the oddsmakers have this as a fairly close game, and you can even get plus money for Tampa to cover the spread. The oddsmakers expect a lower scoring game as well. For us, we have a hard time seeing the case for Detroit in this one. We are going to go with the Rays, who are a vastly superior team. Aaron Civale will make his first start for his new team. Tampa acquired Civale at the deadline, and you know how Tampa is with pitchers. If they traded for him, they must have seen something that they think they can maximize and exploit. Civale has been about as effective as a low-K pitcher can be. He rarely gives up hits, much less runs, and with the Tampa offense behind him, he should thrive in his new digs (although maintaining his 2.34 ERA in the AL East will be much more difficult than it was in the AL Central). The Tigers will hand the ball to Tarik Skubal. Skubal will be making only his 6th start of the season, and he has yet to go beyond the 5th inning of any game. He has been inconsistent so far, as 3 of his 5 starts have been shutouts, while the other two starts saw a combined 11 runs in 8.2 innings. Notably, the Tigers have lost 4 of his 5 starts. His inconsistency gives Civale and the Rays an edge in this one. Detroit struggles to score and Tampa Bay is one of the best offenses in the league. Civale is someone that is extremely familiar with the Tigers and he has owned them in his career, his team going 10-0 when he is starting. Pitching with a better lineup behind him than what he had in Cleveland makes Civale that much more effective down the stretch. Detroit is 3-18 SU in their last 21 games against an opponent in the American League East Division division. Tampa Bay is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Detroit. We are backing the Rays with confidence.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for August 4, 2023 )
New York Mets vs. Baltimore Orioles
Bet: Baltimore Orioles -1 ARL/-120 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Baltimore has been good on offense this season. They are in the top 10 or around the top 10 in the league in runs, RBIs, strikeouts, SLG, and OPS. The Orioles will face David Peterson but he may not pitch for long and it could end up being a bullpen game for the Mets. Peterson has not had a good season, recording a 5.92 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He lost his spot in the starting rotation and has not pitched more than two innings since July 8. With the Mets trading away Verlander and Scherzer, Peterson may be back in the starting rotation but he has not been good. Outside of K%, his percentile rankings are poor. He sits in the 16th percentile for xBA, 33rd percentile for xSLG and 41st percentile for BB%. He also has horrendous away game splits, posting a 1-5 record with an 8.41 ERA and 1.84 WHIP while yielding 32 earned runs and 8 HR in 33 2/3 innings. The Orioles bats are no joke and it is possible that Peterson runs into trouble really early in this matchup. The Orioles are surging and their offense has been clicking. The Orioles are a dangerous offensive team and they should be able to generate enough production at the dish to support Kremer while picking up the win in the opening game of this series. NY Mets are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games when playing as the underdog. NY Mets are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the American League. NY Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 road games with Peterson as a starter. Baltimore is 31-13 SU in their last 44 games when playing as the favourite. We are taking Baltimore Orioles -1 alternate run line as our MLB No Limit Play.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Bet: Houston Astros ML/-148 ( sportsbook: DraftKings ) Winner
Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has had two consecutive solid outings, allowing 10 hits and four runs in 12 innings with Houston winning both of the games. New York starting pitcher Luis Severino is coming off his worst outing of the season after allowing 10 hits and nine runs in just 3 ⅓ innings when losing to Baltimore 9-3 last Sunday. The Astros own the Yankees of late, rattling off seven straight wins over New York and nine over their last 10 meetings. Over Severino’s last five starts the Yankees are 1-4 and he has lasted just 4.1 innings on average in that stretch. He allowed at least seven runs in three of those games and eight hits in four. He’s been getting pummeled, and Houston should pounce on the opportunity to continue the trend. The Astros have averaged 6.2 runs per game over their last five and have scored at least four runs in 10 second-half games. They are a team on a mission to get back to the top in the West and the Yankees are simply a team playing out the slate at this point. We like Houston to continue its dominance of New York here. Take the Astros with the money line.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 3, 2023 )
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 RL/+123 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Both teams were expected to be non-factors in the NL Central this season but here we are in early August and things have clearly shifted. Cincinnati’s youth movement has paid off in spades though they were unable to reel in a starting pitcher to help bolster their rotation. As a result, they have to send Weaver out every fifth day for the time being and with his ERA sitting close to seven at this point, it’s tough to get excited about his chances. Weaver makes his eighth career start against the Cubs in this contest. He is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA, a 2.046 WHIP, 13 walks and 23 strikeouts over 29.1 innings of work against them. Weaver is 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA, a 2.417 WHIP, nine walks and eight strikeouts over 12 innings of work in three career starts at Wrigley Field. Chicago has been battering opposing pitchers since the All-Star break, as we saw in full force the last 2 days. Meanwhile, Taillon has found himself of late, going 3-0 over his last four starts. The Cubs have been rolling of late and that, plus home-field advantage, works in their favor in this one.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for August 2, 2023 )
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Bet: Washington Nationals ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Milwaukee Brewers and Washington Nationals close out their midweek series this afternoon with Wade Miley and MacKenzie Gore getting the starting nods on the mound. Although it’s no secret this season hasn’t necessarily gone the Nationals way, this is a fantastic spot for them to light up the scoreboard in front of their home fans. Milwaukee’s Miley posts a solid 3.06 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but his 4.87 xERA and 4.78 xFIP suggest he’s due for regression. This will be Miley’s first start in over two weeks after coming off the 15-day IL due to elbow soreness in his throwing arm (left). Considering Washington has the 4th best BA (.278) against lefties this season, this is a favorable matchup for the Nats’ bats. Not only are they solid against lefties, but the Nationals offense deserves more respect across the board. They have a top 5 batting average in the league and have scored the 4th most runs since the All-Star break. With Miley’s poor advanced metrics across the board, 4th percentile in fastball velocity, 7th percentile in whiff%, 15th percentile in xBA, we expect Washington to do their job on offense, considering the fact that Miley gave up 11 runs in his last three starts against the Nationals and will have a hard time slowing them down in this game. The Brewers have lost five of their last six games and four of their last five road games. They will struggle offensively in this game because they have struggled against left-handers and Gore has done a good job on the mound in recent starts, especially at home where he hasn’t given up a run in two consecutive starts. He didn’t give up a run in his lone start against the Brewers and will keep their offense in check once again. Gore falls in the 73rd percentile for fastball velocity as well as the 93rd percentile in extension, a solid combo matching up against a Brewers lineup that struggles against the fastball. With all things considered, we are backing the Nationals on the money line in a spot we believe they should be favored in.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for August 1st, 2023 )
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees ( Favorite of the Day )
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Tampa took game one 5-1 and is looking to take game 2 and the series. The Rays are 1.5 games out of the division lead and need to win these games over the Yankees to catch up to the Orioles.
Rodon has struggled out of the gate in his first season with the Yankees after missing the first three months of the year. He did earn the win in his last start but the fact remains that the Yankees haven’t been able to string together complete performances with any regularity over the last couple of months. Tampa Bay bounced back with a vengeance after losing in blowout fashion Saturday night by rolling to a win Sunday afternoon. The Rays are a very dangerous offensive team and they have one of their few remaining capable starters on the hill here in Eflin. He struggled his last time out but has pitched well against the Yankees in his career. Zach Eflin has a 3.64 ERA through 20 starts with a 11-6 record. Eflin has a 3.7 BB percentage, which is in the top 2% of the league and a 25.2 strikeout percentage, which is well above the league average. He is a solid pitcher in an even better rotation. With Tampa Bay boasting a better lineup, and being 58-18 SU in their last 76 games played in August, we will take them on the ML.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays ( Destroyer of the Day )
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays face off this evening with an interesting matchup on the mound. The Orioles are rolling with one of their traditional starters in Kyle Bradish, while the Blue Jays have activated 36-year-old Hyun Jin Ryu off the 60-day IL to start today. This will be Ryu’s first start since June of 2022 after having Tommy John surgery for the second time of his career. He was solid in his minor-league rehab appearances, but coming back to face this Orioles lineup for his first major league start in more than 13 months is a tall task even with his veteran experience. His ERA has been on a steady decline since 2018, so it’s somewhat puzzling to see the Blue Jays even slightly favored on the money line in a bit of an unknown spot for them this season. While Ryu has no major-league stats to reference from this calendar year, Bradish posts a solid 3.29 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Although this will be a familiar arm to face for this Blue Jays lineup, Bradish had success in his first and only appearance against Toronto this season, surrendering just 1 run and 4 hits in 7.0 innings pitched. Both of these teams are capable of lighting up a scoreboard, but we are relying more on the Orioles’ pitching to get the job done while the bats do their thing against Ryu. Baltimore has already won a pair of important AL East series, and a win today would make it 3 divisional series wins in a row. With all things considered, after cashing our ticket last night with Baltimore +125, we are backing again tonight the Orioles to get another win on the road.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 31, 2023 )
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs ( Invincible Game of the Day )
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+104 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Andrew Abbott is having a stellar rookie season. He’s made 10 starts at the MLB level and has a sub-2 ERA with a 27.8% strikeout rate. Abbott is also on a 14-inning scoreless streak heading into Monday’s start which demonstrates just how good the lefty has been in his first year. His success has been backed by his advanced metrics too considering he owns a .212 xBA and a .255 wOBA through 61.2 innings. The lefty has a tough task ahead of him to face a Cubs lineup that has been bashing pitchers left and right since the break, but there’s one thing that stands out to us about their offense, they struggle against lefties. Since the break, the Cubs rank 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. However, they rank 17th in batting average, 15th on-base percentage, 15th in slugging percentage, 14th in OPS and 14th in wRC+ against lefties. Marcus Stroman was one of the best pitchers in baseball in the first half of the season. He had a 2.76 ERA in April, a 2.87 ERA in May and a 2.17 ERA in June. However, July has been a completely different story. He owns a 7.99 ERA with a 1.73 WHIP in July and has only been getting worse after every start. The right-hander has surrendered 12 runs, 16 hits and 6 walks in his last 7 innings to the Cardinals and White Sox. Stroman isn’t getting as many ground balls as he’s used to and getting barreled far too often, and until he shows any signs of improvement, we are fading Stroman and the Cubs.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays ( Shocker of the Day )
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+125 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Things have gotten pretty tight in the highly-competitive AL East over the past few weeks, and Monday's contest between Toronto and Baltimore marks the start of an important series. Part of the reason Toronto is looking up at the Orioles is because the Blue Jays haven't had any success against them so far this season. The Orioles are 5-1 against Toronto this year. That includes a dominant performance by Kyle Gibson against the Blue Jays back in May when he fired seven innings of one-run baseball to earn the victory. Gibson's success against Toronto isn't limited to just this season, either. In 12 career starts against the Blue Jays, Gibson is 6-2. On the other side, Chris Bassitt already got blasted by Baltimore once this season, lasting just three innings and allowing 11 hits and eight earned runs. Players currently on Baltimore's roster are batting .371 lifetime against Bassitt. Baltimore's bullpen has a slightly lower ERA than Toronto's this season, and the numbers we listed above for Gibson give us confidence that he'll help his team get it done on Monday. Winning on the road is something Baltimore has been great at all season. We are siding with the Orioles to grab another road victory on Monday.
MLB No Limit Plays - Bonus Plays ( Plays released for July 31, 2023 )
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Bet: Houston Astros -1.5 RL/+110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros meet for the second time this season getting their new series underway with Noah Syndergaard and J.P. France getting the starts on the mound. Although this will be Syndegaard’s first appearance for the Guardians after being traded from the Dodgers, it’s no secret he’s been getting hit around in just about every start. Although his 5.67 xERA and 5.54 FIP compared to his 7.16 ERA suggest he’s eventually in for some positive regression, on the road against a solid Astros lineup is a tough spot to get right. With a 1.45 WHIP, Syndergaard has surrendered 17 runs in his last 14 innings pitched. He hasn’t pitched in almost 2 months, so we would expect there to be some rust against a team capable of lighting up the scoreboard in the early innings. The Astros certainly have the advantage on the mound tonight with France. France posts a solid 2.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Although an xERA of 4.34 and FIP of 4.33 suggest he’s eventually in for regression, it hasn’t come yet. His xERA has hovered around there for a while now, yet France has surrendered just ONE earned run in his last 14 innings pitched. Despite the Guardians drastically improving offensively since the beginning of the season, Houston still has the advantage. The Astros rank top 10 in runs scored, BA (.266) and OPS (.804). All in all, we are backing Syndergaard’s bad form to continue in a tough spot on the road. We`ll be taking the Astros on the run line in this one.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Bet: Over 7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
They’ve got three games under their belts already this season and those came with an average of 13 combined runs scored per game. All three of those games beat the over and the over has now gone 8-2 in their last ten meetings. This game should come with a lower total than those did, based on the pitching matchup. However, both of these starters are capable of giving up runs. Combined, Bello and Kirby allowed eight runs in their last starts. Both teams' offenses have actually been hitting the ball very well in the second half and have both done well to maintain momentum. The Boston Red Sox are scoring 5.0 RPG this season and have been one of the best hitting teams in baseball. The Seattle Mariners have scored at least 3 runs in 13 consecutive games and are hitting as well as they have all season. Nick Pivetta is 3-3 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 8 starts this year. George Kirby is 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts for the Mariners. Kirby sports a 4.86 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against the Red Sox. Pivetta sports a 4.77 ERA in 2 lifetime starts against the Mariners.
MLB No Limit Plays - Bonus Plays ( Plays released for July 30, 2023 )
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML/-139 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The Chicago White Sox have lost six of their last seven overall, five of their last six played at home and Chicago has lost seven of its last eight when playing against a team from the American League. Chicago is just 23rd and runs scored and does not score enough, as the White Sox are 24th in team ERA at 4.62. Cleveland struggles as well producing runs and is just 24th with 434 but the Guardians have a far better pitching staff that is 6th in baseball in team ERA at 3.83. Cleveland starting pitcher Aaron Civale has held each of his last five opponents to two earned runs or less while allowing a total of six runs in 36 ⅓ innings. Chicago starting pitcher Michael Kopech gave up four runs last time out when losing to the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday 7-5 and has allowed four earned runs in two of the last three outings. White Sox are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against an opponent in the American League.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-137 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Phillies have a huge pitching advantage today as Cristopher Sanchez continues to impress in the starting rotation. After being called up for a spot start in June, Sanchez has forced his way into the rotation with a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The Phillies refuse to hit for him most days, and thus they have lost 5 of his 8 starts, but he has yet to give up more than 3 runs in any outing. Sanchez should do his part. On the other side, it is time for our weekly game of “fade Rich Hill”. The Pirates have lost 4 of his last 5 starts, and he rarely gives up fewer than 3 runs. When we see him on the docket, we fade. The Phillies also hit lefties better than Pittsburgh, and the Pittsburgh lefty is far more vulnerable than Philly’s. This game should be Philly all the way. There is plus-money on the Philly run line, but with two 1-run games in this series already, we will stay safer with the money line.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 30, 2023 )
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets ( MLB No Limit Play - Destroyer of the Day )
Bet: New York Mets -1.5 RL/-118 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Winner
The New York Mets look to bounce back from their 11-6 loss against the Washington Nationals last night as they close out their current 4-game series, now leading 2-1. The Mets are bringing out veteran Justin Verlander and have won 4 of his last 5 starts. He did not allow a single run in his last outing against the New York Yankees on July 25 as the Mets won 9-3. The Nationals are expected to start Trevor Williams, who has not been reliable, issuing a 5.11 ERA this month, and has squandered five runs in 7.1 innings against the rivals this season. Since the start of June, it seems as though he has alternated wins and losses. The bad news for him there is that the Nationals won his last start against the Colorado Rockies, 6-5 last Tuesday. The 4 wins for the Mets in Verlander’s recent starts were all by at least 2 runs, so with the Mets’ ML price kind of steep we will back the Mets -1.5 on the run line.
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals ( MLB No Limit Play - Favorite of the Day )
Bet: Minnesota Twins ML/-160 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Loser
The Royals go for the sweep against the Twins on Sunday afternoon. The Royals have not swept an opponent all season long, in fact they have not won more than 2 games in a row all season, losing the next game by at least 2 runs, and it is hard to imagine that they get it done today against Maeda who is 3-0 when starts against Kansas, with an ERA of 1.00 and a WHIP of 0.722. Kansas City is wildly inconsistent and they have needed performances of a lifetime from Bobby Witt Jr. over the past two games to earn wins. Witt Jr. has nine RBIs, eight hits, four extra base hits, two home runs, one grand slam and one stolen base during these past two games. Since 1920, Willie Mays and Witt Jr. are the only two players to accomplish this feat. The Royals need history to get the job done and it won’t happen again on Sunday. The Twins look to build off a game where they scored seven runs and constantly drive in runs with Alex Kirilloff, Donovan Solano, and the rest of the lineup making hard contact and crushing pitches against the Royals pitchers. The Twins should limit the Royals lineup with Kenta Maeda pitching multiple strong innings to allow the bullpen to close out the game with a comfortable lead.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros ( MLB No Limit Play - Shocker of the Day )
Bet: Houston Astros ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Loser
The Tampa Bay Rays look to bounce back from being dominated last night by the Houston Astros as they close out their series which is now tied at 1-1. The Rays pushed back Tyler Glasnow to Monday meaning they will turn to a bullpen game on Sunday. Littell will get the starting nod but don't expect him to last much past the second inning. Coming off a blowout loss on Saturday, this will be a tough assignment for the Rays' bullpen on Sunday.The Astros crushed the Rays 17-4 with 5 different hitters blasting a home run. The Rays opened up as a slight favorite but we don’t seeing the case for that as they have been on a losing skid, losing 9 of their last 12 games. The Astros are getting into their stride with key players are returning from injury and have won 7 of their last 10 games. The Rays are expected to start Zack Littell and they have lost each of his last 2 starts by 4 runs. The Astros, however, have won 3 of Brandon Bielak’s last 4 games. At the time of writing the analysis we are getting great value for the Astros at +105 price with home field advantage and they are 9-3 in their last 12 games against the Rays. We expect Bielak to have better command in this game and get the Astros deeper into the game to utilize what should be a fresh bullpen after Saturday's blowout win. HOUSTON is 36-12 SU (22.8 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. The Astros will take the series with a win on Sunday over a Rays' team forced to utilize their bullpen yet again.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 29, 2023 )
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bet: Over 10/-117 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Reds and Dodgers play the late game on Saturday. If you didn’t stay up for the end of Friday’s action, the Reds held on to beat the Dodgers 6-5, after jumping out to a 3-run lead in the first inning. These Reds just keep winning, and if you think they can do it again, Saturday’s game offers a nice payout. We cannot bring ourselves to back Luke Weaver as he is just dreadful, but this stat could blow your mind. Despite Weaver being a nightmare as a pitcher, the Reds have won 9 of his last 10 starts. One of those wins was against the Dodgers, despite the fact that Weaver gave up 7 runs. We do not understand how the Reds keep winning with Weaver taking the mound, but we do know that he is likely to give up a bunch of runs in very few innings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will turn to Emmet Sheehan, and we suspect his days as a starter are numbered as the Dodgers buy up pieces at the trade deadline. Sheehan has made 6 starts, and he has got progressively worse. In his last 3 starts, he has got out of the 4th inning only once, and he has given up 17 runs in a combined 12.1 innings. He walked 12 in those 3 starts, and those free bases have usually scored. The devil-may-care Reds shouldn’t have trouble scoring on him either. We expect both these starters to get shellacked early. Neither of these bullpens is good enough to consistently cover a lot of innings cleanly, and the Reds used most of their good arms last night on top of that. This one could turn into a slow-pitch softball score. We got a really good number at BetRivers over 10 runs -117.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 28, 2023 )
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML/-147 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Zack Wheeler will start the first game of this series with the Pirates. He took a tough-luck loss against Cleveland last Saturday, allowing one run on five hits and one walk while striking out eight batters. The right-hander also got his 12th quality start of the year, tied for ninth-most in the Majors. Pittsburgh has not looked good at all after the break. They have lost 12 of 17. The Phillies are 10 games back of the first-place Atlanta Braves, and there is a log jam in the wild card race, with four teams within a game of each other. We like Wheeler to out-duel the struggling Mitch Keller, and the Phillies to notch another win. Keller is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies and has given up 14 runs and 19 hits in 11 innings in his last 2 games, both losses. Wheeler is 3-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts against Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA in his last 2 starts while yielding 14 earned runs and 5 HR in 11 innings to the Guardians and Angels. Keller is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 3 lifetime starts against the Phillies, yielding 13 earned runs in 15 innings. Pittsburgh doesn’t grade out well offensively in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, ranking 25th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 81 and the 5th-highest K% at 26.1%. The Phillies bullpen in the last 30 days actually ranks 1st in ERA and 5th in FIP so they should be able to close the door once Wheeler exits. Philadelphia is 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played on a Friday when playing on the road. Pittsburgh is 6-22 SU in their last 28 games played in July, 10-27 SU in their last 37 games played on a Friday and 8-24 SU in their last 32 games against an opponent in the National League East Division. We are taking the Phillies ML -147 at WynnBet.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 27, 2023 )
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Chicago Cubs have scored at least 3 runs in 19 of their last 20 games and at least 5 runs in 14 of those. They have gone 7-1 in their last seven games overall while scoring at least 7 runs in six of those. They feel like they have a real chance of making the playoffs, while the St. Louis Cardinals sit at 46-57 and pretty much out of it. The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Justin Steele over Miles Mikolas. Steele is 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in seven road starts. Steele is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA in his last four starts against the Cardinals, allowing just 7 earned runs and zero homers in 25 1/3 innings. Mikolas is 6-5 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 22 starts this season, and 2-2 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.296 WHIP in 10 home starts. His last start came against the Cubs on July 22nd where he allowed 5 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 innings of an 8-6 loss at Chicago. St. Louis is 4-12 following a win by 4 runs or more this season. Bet the Cubs Thursday.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 26, 2023 )
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML/+186 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
San Diego closed their recent roadtrip an average 5-5 while splitting the first two games of this series and that has been the story of the season of high expectations. The Padres are three games under .500 and well out in both their division and the Wild Card. Pittsburgh lost two of three against the Angels to open its six-game roadtrip before the first two games here and the offense has shown some promise by averaging nearly 5.0 rpg over its last six games after scoring six runs in its previous four games. The Padres have been massive favorites the first two games with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell on the hill and they are a big favorite again, this time with Seth Lugo who does not deserve a number this big. He has pitched well with a 3.72 ERA but San Diego is just 6-8 in his 14 starts. Johan Oviedo had a very solid stretch after a slow start to the season but he has regressed over his last four starts with only one quality outing in there. We should see a bounce back against a very overrated lineup in a pitcher-friendly park as a phenomenal price.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 25, 2023 )
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Bet: Colorado Rockies ML/+118 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Loser
The Nationals are getting the benefit of the doubt because they're at home and they`ve swept the Giants, but the Rockies were able to come up with some big hits on Monday night and they scored 10 runs in the Game 1 victory. Neither one of these teams has a very good record, but Colorado is definitely trending in the right direction. The Rockies are starting Austin Gomber, who isn't a pitcher you should be excited to get behind posting a 6.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP but if you look closely, he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. With that said, the Rockies are 6-3 since the break, and they're providing value for the first time all year. Also, nobody should be looking to lay juice with the Nationals, who have lost each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents. The value is with the Rockies in the underdog role. Washington is just 3-21 SU in their last 24 games played on a Tuesday.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 24, 2023 )
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Bet: San Diego Padres -1.5 RL/-121 ( sportsbook: BetRivers ) Loser
The Pirates have fallen on hard times since early June and their woes continued over the weekend in Anaheim as they dropped two of three games including a 7-5 result yesterday. Meanwhile, the Padres dropped a 3-1 decision yesterday in Detroit, failing to close out the three-game sweep. We look for San Diego to bounce back on Monday as it hands the ball to Yu Darvish against rookie Quinn Priester of the Pirates. Darvish hasn't been his usual dominant self this season but has shown signs of rounding into form lately, allowing just one earned run over his last two starts, spanning 12 innings of work. One thing has remained a constant for the veteran right-hander this season and that has been his effectiveness at Petco Park as he has recorded a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in seven home starts. Even with his slightly higher ERA, Darvish remains one of the most dangerous pitchers in the National League and has had a lot of success against Pittsburgh’s offense in his career. In 67 plate appearances against Darvish, Pittsburgh’s lineup has a combined .155 batting average. It's worth noting that each of the Padres last 15 victories in Darvish starts have come by at least two runs going back to last September. Quinn Priester will make his second big league start for the Pirates. Last time out he was rocked for seven earned runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Guardians. No offense to Cleveland, but the Guardians aren’t exactly known for their powerful offense. Priester wasn’t overly impressive in the Minors this season and didn’t look any better for the Pirates. It's not as if Priester had been dominating Triple-A hitters before getting the call to the big leagues as he had logged a 4.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 87 2/3 innings for Indianapolis. The Padres should have the edge in the later stages of this game as well as their bullpen has been lights out lately, posting a collective 1.85 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over their last seven games, working just 24 1/3 innings over that stretch. The Pirates 'pen has logged a 4.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the same stretch and is reaching into 'overworked' territory having been called into action for 31 2/3 innings in that time frame.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 23, 2023 )
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML/+125 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Orioles and the Rays finish their 4-game series today with Baltimore having a 2-1 lead. This is a battle for the division with the Orioles leading the AL East and the Rays exactly one game behind them. The Orioles will start Tyler Wells who has a 3.54 ERA through 18 starts with a 7-5 record. Wells is a solid pitcher with a 25.0 K percentage and a below-average BB percentage, WOBA, and xBA. He will be opposed by Taj Bradley who has a 5.29 ERA through 14 starts with a 5-6 record. The rookie’s K percentage is 30.6% which is in the top 10% of the league but his xWOBAcon is well above league average which means despite striking people out he is still expected to let people on base after contact. This game doesn’t line up to be a pitcher’s duel but it should still be a good matchup for those who are interested. This is a battle between 2 division rivals who are both looking to lead the AL East and do so with good pitching and really good offense. The Orioles average 4.92 runs per game with a .252 BA, .420 SLG, and a .321 WOBA. They have a 12.6 batting fWAR which is 6th in the American League. The Rays are just ahead of the Orioles averaging 5.27 runs per game with a .257 BA, .448 SLG, and a .335 WOBA. They have a 21.6 batting fWAR which is second-best in the AL. The Orioles may have worse offensive numbers than the Rays but we like the O’s to win this game. They have won 11 of their last 14 games and 5 of their last 7 games against the Rays. On top of that they are 7-1 in their last 8 road games. The Rays started the season red hot but are 1-7 in their last 8 games and 2-7 in their last 9 home games. Bradley has more upside but his ERA is still above 5 and his record shows he shouldn’t be much of a factor against this O’s offense. Take the Orioles to win on the road at plus money.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 22, 2023 )
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Bet: New York Yankees -1.5 RL/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals in an afternoon matchup after securing a 5-4 victory in the series opener last night. The Yankees will start AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole, who had a great outing in his last start against the Colorado Rockies, striking out 11 hitters and allowing only 1 run. With the Yankees losing 4 straight before defeating the Royals last night, it’s a good opportunity for them to get some momentum going. The Royals have righty Brady Singer pitching and he owns a relatively high ERA at 5.70 for the season. Looking at the batting rotation for the Yankees, 5 of their batters have a hit on Singer in their career. In his last 2 starts, Singer has allowed an average of 5 runs and 10 hits. The Royals have been abysmal against right-handed pitchers, losing close to 72% of their games. They are facing an elite right-handed talent in Cole which will make it difficult for the Royals’ hitters to put the ball into play. We like the Yankees to win by at least 2 runs.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Bet: Seattle Mariners ML/+120 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Seattle Mariners will look to continue their momentum after their walk-off victory last night against the Toronto Blue Jays as they face them again this afternoon. It looked as if the Blue Jays would be able to cruise to victory last night but their bullpen collapsed and gave up 1 run in each of the crucial 7th, 8th and 9th innings. It is surprising to see the Blue Jays collapse in that fashion given that they are in the top 10 in opponent batting average, ERA and WHIP. It is important to note that the Mariners in recent history have got the better of the Blue Jays, especially at home, where they have won the last 5 meetings. We like the value that we are getting with the Mariners as a home underdog. Logan Gilbert is expected to start for the Mariners and they have won his last 3 starts. The Blue Jays will bring out Kevin Gausman and they have lost 3 straight games with him on the mound. The Mariners ML is the play.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Cincinnati Reds have won 3 straight games and look to push it to 4 as they face the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Reds defeated the Diamondbacks 9-6 last night thanks to a 5-run 5th inning led by rookie Matt McLain hitting his first grand slam. The bats for the Reds have been productive as of late as they produced at 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games, while the Diamondbacks given up at least 7 runs in 4 out of their last 6 games. It’s a battle of rookie Brandons on the mound with the Diamondbacks starting Brandon Pfaadt while the Reds go with Brandon Williamson. We think the Reds will continue to be aggressive at the plate and put themselves in a position to win 4 straight games and inch their way closer to take the lead from the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. The Reds as a favorite have won close to 67% of their games, taking 18 out of 27. There’s good value in backing the Reds today.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 21, 2023 )
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Chicago Cubs ML/-130 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Cubs and Cardinals face each other again on Friday afternoon, playing under the sun at Wrigley Field. The Cardinals have been hot lately, especially with their bats, and they won comfortably on Thursday night, 7-2. The Cubs have been scoring a lot lately too, though, and we think they have a substantial pitching advantage in this one. The Cubs will be starting Justin Steele, who had a terrific first half. His ERA is still below 3.00 despite a bad outing last week against the Red Sox in which he gave up 6 runs. Steele beat the Cardinals in London a month ago, holding them to just 1 run in an offense-friendly park. He should turn in another good performance today. We are less confident when it comes to Jack Flaherty. He has been the picture of inconsistency this season, and it is hard to know what to make of him. We trust Steele, and the Cubs’ offense ought to get back on track, so we are going to take the home team.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML/-160 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Tampa Bay is 55-28 SU as favorites and 34-14 SU as home favorites. It's 17-10 vs. AL East competition this season. These teams have been on opposite trajectories lately, but TB will defend its home turf tomorrow. Eflin gave up a season-high five runs in his last start, but his body of work makes a more compelling case than an off-performance against KC. He'll bounce back in a big way vs. a primetime opponent in Baltimore, holding it to two or fewer runs, a feat he has achieved in ten games this season. In his last start against the Rays, Bradish benefitted from early run support that allowed him to pitch with less pressure on him. We don't expect that to be the case on Friday. The Orioles' offense, scoring 5.6 runs per game in July, is bound to cool off soon. The Rays' offense, averaging 3.3 runs this month, is overdue for a breakthrough performance. We believe it will happen against Bradish, who gave up 16 hits and 11 runs in his two starts (9.1 IP) vs. TB last season.
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Bet: Kansas City Royals +1.5 RL/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Yes, the Yankees should win this game. However, they haven't shown enough lately, especially at the plate, to think that this will be a piece of cake. Even against one of MLB's worst teams. The Royals just faced the Tigers four times, another terrible offense, and their only loss against the run line was because they were shut out. Alec Marsh may give up a couple of homers but probably won't face much trouble otherwise. That keeps the Royals in the game, and if they don't win they're at least one swing away in the end.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Plays released for July 20, 2023 )
San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Padres have been a major disappointment as we approach 100 games into the MLB year. They have been at or below the .500 mark for most of the year. Blake Snell has been one of the bright spots. Snell has not been scored upon since the first inning of a June 28 game against the Pirates and hasn't given up more than two runs in a start since May 25, posting an otherworldly 0.62 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 91:25 K: BB in 58 innings over that latter stretch while going 5-1. I believe he pitches well again, but his dominant stretch will end facing an elite Blue Jays lineup. Their .745 team OPS is sure to rise as Vladimir Guerrero breaks out of his early season homer drought. Look for him and the Jays to finally tag Snell with some runs and Bassitt to coast against a Padres team ranked 24th in team batting average.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Milwaukee came through for us last night and we will use them in this spot as a slight underdog with its ace going. The Brewers had won four straight games prior to Tuesday as they remain in first place in the National League Central by 2.5 games over Cincinnati. They have been on a solid run, going 18-8 over their last 26 games. The Phillies had their four-game winning streak snapped with the loss on Wednesday and have too have been on a long-term heater as they are 27-11 over their last 38 games and have taken over second place in the National League East, albeit 9.5 games back. They are third in the Wild Card Standings, however. Corbin Burnes is not having a Cy Young type season but he has been great with a 3.73 ERA despite a pair of blowups and take those out and his ERA drops to 2.94 to go along with a 1.11 WHIP. He has tossed three straight quality outings including six shutout innings against the Reds last time out where he recorded a season-high 13 strikeouts. Taijuan Walker has no doubt been the surprise of the Phillies rotation as he has posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 19 starts and he has allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Philadelphia has won his last seven outings and we play it contrarian going against that streak today.
MLB No Limit Plays ( Play released for July 19, 2023 )
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML/+155 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Phillies have won seven of their last 10 games and three of their last four home games. Even though they are playing well offensively and scored 22 runs in their last three home games, expect them to struggle offensively in this game because Milwaukee’s pitchers have been dominant on the mound, giving up only three runs in their last four games in recent starts, giving up only six runs in his last four games. With Milwaukee’s bullpen not giving up a run in three of their last four games, they will keep Philadelphia’s offense in check. The Brewers have won six of their last seven games and seven of their last eight road games. They haven’t played particularly well during their run and scored only eight runs in their last three road games. But, they will play well enough in this game because Sanchez has been shaky on the mound in recent starts, especially at home where he has given up eight runs in his last three starts. With Philadelphia’s bullpen also struggling in recent games, they will have a hard time slowing down the Brewers in this game.
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML/+105 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
Cincinnati lost the completion of the suspended game from Monday 4-2 in extra innings and then lost the scheduled Tuesday game 11-10 as it blew a pair of multi-run leads. The Reds have now lost six straight games to fall 2.5 games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central. San Francisco has been making a move in the National League West as it has won seven straight games to move into second place, a game and a half behind the Dodgers. This comes after a 2-9 slide where the offense could do nothing and even with the winning streak, still remains inconsistent. Ross Stripling goes for San Francisco and he is making progress after a month and a half off as he has made three starts but has been limited to a combined 10.1 innings and while he has gone longer each time out, he will still not be fully stretched out. Graham Ashcraft is making his second start since the All Star break and he has been on a solid run going back as he has allowed only one run in each of his last three outings, all of which have resulted in quality starts. This includes two starts at home where he was struggling before those. In 34 games, Elly De La Cruz has four home runs with a .795 OPS and has given the Reds a major spark. That will persist Wednesday and they will gut out a home win.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 18, 2023 )
San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Bet: San Diego Padres ML/-125 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Padres head north of the border on Tuesday looking to snap a 3-game losing streak. They turn to RHP Joe Musgrove, who enters with an 8-2 record, 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 79 1/3 innings this season. He has posted 6 straight quality starts including 3 starts (and wins) against American League foes. And while things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for the Padres this season, San Diego has racked up 5 consecutive inter-league victories, while going 8-2 in the last 10 against the AL. The only concern is that the Padres have won just once in their last 5 road outings. The Blue Jays are on a 4-game win streak and have won 8 of their last 9 overall to get back into the mix in the American League East Division race. The Jays are also 26-18 at home this season. However, it’s hard to overlook how poor RHP Alek Manoah has been this season. He is 2-7 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. While he allowed just 1 run, 5 hits and no walks with 8 strikeouts across 6 innings in his return after a month-long banishment to the minors, that win was against the lowly Detroit Tigers and he’ll get a much bigger test against the high-octane Padres offense. Better odds at home for the better team who is on a 4-game win streak and have won 8 of their last 9 overall?! The odds are a clear indicator that the oddsmakers want you to bet on the Blue Jays, and this is another factor why we love San Diego Padres to win today.
MLB Underdog Game of the Year No Limit Play ( Play released for July 17, 2023 )
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubs
Bet: Washington Nationals ML/+123 ( sportsbook: Wynn Bet ) Winner
The Nationals have hit fairly well on the road (.257 BA/.321 OBP/.398 SLG/.719 OPS) and vs. left-handed pitchers (.279/.337/.437/.774) this season. Smyly has been too inconsistent to back at -140 to -150 odds, as he's given up 14 runs in his last three outings (11.1 IP) and nine long balls in his last seven starts. In his first ten starts, he surrendered four or more runs just once, but he's had four outings with four-plus earned runs in his last eight. The Cubs aren't off to a hot start to July, slashing .239/.308/.374/.682 in their first 11 games of the month. Gore has had a lot of rest recently and should capitalize on that extra time off on Monday. He's held 12 of his 18 opponents to three or fewer runs, limiting seven of those clubs to one or zero runs. While Chicago scored four runs against him on May 1, we believe he'll get the better of the Cubbies in the rematch. There is significant betting value on the Nationals to win straight-up on Monday night. Take Washington Nationals as our MLB Underdog Game of the Year No Limit Play.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 16, 2023 )
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Bet: Seattle Mariners -1.5 RL/+125 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Detroit took the opening game of this series but Olson hasn’t thrown a ton of innings lately, which makes one wonder how deep he’ll be able to go in the game. Moving him to the bullpen was a bit of a strange move by the Tigers, even with the recent returns of Rodriguez and Matt Manning to the rotation. Miller missed his last couple of turns before the All-Star break as he went on the IL with a blister on his middle finger after that start against Tampa Bay. The Mariners are the better team when you get down to it and their hitters have to start making contact. Look for Seattle to rebound in this contest as they find a way to earn the home win in this contest as Miller handcuffs the Tigers again.
MLB No Limit Play ( Play released for July 15, 2023 )
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers ML/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Taking the Dodgers to win this game for a couple of reasons. Getting above average value on their money line this game given the Mets struggles on the season and while they do have Kodai Senga on the bump, it is more of a question of if they will be able to produce offensively. The Dodgers run out a quality arm of their own in Tony Gonsolin, a former Cy Young contender, who should pose problems for a Mets offense that is lacking an identity. Expect the Dodgers to do just enough on offense and defense to pull this game out in what should be a good team win as they are playing well and contending for playoffs, while the Mets are doing neither.
MLB No Limit Play Game of the Month ( Play released for July 14, 2023 )
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Bet: Houston Astros ML/+135 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Ohtani hasn't pitched since July 4th as the Angels rested their all-star ace as he recovered from a blister. Ohtani is also 0-2 in his two starts against the Astros this year already and is just 3-5 lifetime vs. the Astros. Houston comes into this game just two games out of first place and will be backed by Valdez, who looked like he was back to full strength in his last outing vs. Seattle. Houston is 5-2 this season against the Angels and faces an Angels team that is as banged up as any team in baseball. The Angels will be without Trout, Drury, and Neto for sure in this game and won't know until game time if Rendon and Trout's replacement, Adell, will be ready to go. The Angels are 0-4 since Trout went down with his wrist injury on the 4th of July. Without Trout, Ohtani will certainly be pitched even more carefully by Valdez in this game. In his career, Ohtani is hitting just .129 against Valdez with just four hits in 31 at-bats including one home run. Look for the Astros to start the second half with a win over Ohtani and the Angels.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 25, 2023 )
Gonzaga vs. UConn
Bet: UConn -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Teams familiar with making deep March Madness runs clash in a West Region Elite Eight matchup when the fourth-seeded Connecticut Huskies take on the third-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs on Saturday in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. The Huskies are led by junior forward Adama Sanogo, who scored 18 points and grabbed eight rebounds in Thursday's win over Arkansas. He has been red hot of late, scoring 24 points and grabbing eight boards in a 70-55 win over Saint Mary's on Sunday. He registered a double-double in the first-round 87-63 win over Iona, scoring 28 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. In 36 games, all starts, Sanogo is averaging 17.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 26.6 minutes of action. Sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins has been dominant in the NCAA Tournament. He has reached double figures in all three tournament games, including a 24-point, three-assist and two-rebound performance against Arkansas. He has scored in double figures in four of the past five games and in 28 of 34 games, all starts. For the year, he is averaging 16.1 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 29.4 minutes. While UConn made easy work of Arkansas, beating the Razorbacks 88-65 in Las Vegas on Thursday night, Gonzaga erased a 13-point halftime deficit to beat the Bruins 79-76 thanks to a stretch that saw UCLA not score a field goal for more than 10 minutes in the second half, talk about being extremely lucky, but that luck will run out against UConn. Take UConn as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 18, 2023 )
Tennessee vs Duke
Bet: Duke ML/-150 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
The No. 5 seed Duke Blue Devils (27-8) are favored by 3 points against the No. 4 seed Tennessee Volunteers (24-10) for their NCAA Tournament matchup on Saturday but we will take no risk and simply bet the moneyline in this game, as we are absolutely sure Duke will win this game, and we will hammer this game REALLY BIG. Blue Devils ranks 23rd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (30.6%) with that number dropping to 27.9% over their last three games. Duke is one of the best teams in the country at guarding on the permitter. It doesn't force a ton of mistakes, but it's good a harassing outside shooters and then cleaning up the rebounds. Red hot, they've been hitting everything over their fantastic ten-game winning streak. They're making a ton of free throws, and they're doing a tremendous job of moving the ball around. Duke is one of the hottest teams in the country with its young talent seeming to gel at the right time. The Blue Devils have won 10 in a row and have covered the spread in their last 5 contests. They looked terrific during the ACC Conference Tournament, hammering a good Pitt team by 27 points in the quarterfinals, beating Miami 85-78 in the semis, and defeating Virginia 59-49 in the finals. ACC Freshman of the Year Kyle Filipowski leads Duke with 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, while point guard Jeremy Roach provides a much-needed veteran presence with 13.3 points and 3.1 assists per game. As a 6 points favorite, Duke completely dismantled Oral Roberts 74-51 in their last match, showing no signs of slowing down their hot streak. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These are 2 teams going in complete different directions, in their last 10 games, Tennessee has a Straight Up record of 5 wins and 5 losses and against-the-spread record of 4 wins, 6 losses. Also, they`ve bearly beat Louisiana 58-55 while being a huge 11.5 points favorite. Tennessee is also 0-6 ATS and SU in their last 6 road games, while being favorite in 3 of those games. In fact, Tennessee has just 1 quality win in their last 13 games and that was a home game on February 15 against Alabama, and during these 13 games they`ve went 4-9 ATS, winning SU just 6 games against musch lesser teams, and they`ve been favorite in all 6 games: 9.5 points, 3 points ( vs Alabama ), 23.5 points, 5.5 points, 12 points, 11.5 points. To make things even worse, the last road win for Tenessee when they are playing as an underdog, come 3 years ago, on March 3, 2020. Take Duke as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 8, 2023 )
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Bet: Colorado State -2/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Push
The Rams have won three of their last five games. They don’t have a high-scoring offense, but they’re playing well at the moment, scoring 74 points per game in their last three games while making over 51 percent of their shots. They also took advantage of their opportunities at the charity stripe, making 78 percent of their free throws during that span. They do a good job rebounding the ball and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Bulldogs a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Bulldogs struggled in recent games, giving up 74 points or more in four straight road games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Rams in this game. The Bulldogs have lost five of their last seven games and seven of their last road games. They have struggled offensively on the road, scoring less than 65 points per game. Their ball movement isn’t very good on the road and they don’t rebound the ball as well, so don’t expect them to get a lot of extra-scoring chances against the Rams. It is very hard to beat a team three times in a season but not in this case, and how the Rams have played against the Bulldogs this season it makes it easier. They crushed Fresno State at home and then at the end of the season beat them on the road and in both games only gave up 57 points. The Bulldogs did light it up in their last game but they were at home and out of conference facing a team that is nine games under .500. Colorado State will play well on both sides of the floor, especially on the defensive end, and like the two games in the regular season they will get the win and cover the spread. Colorado State is 12-1 ATS since February 11, 2017 against Fresno State. Colorado State is 9-0 SU since January 26, 2019 against Fresno State. Take Colorado State as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 4, 2023 )
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Bet: Texas A&M -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
We think Texas A&M is going to come out fired up as if it has a chance to win the conference title. Motivations will be different on the court Saturday afternoon. Alabama has the regular season title locked up for the SEC, and likely has a number 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome of this game. Texas A&M is trying to improve their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies are currently projected as an 8-seed for the tournament, which is relatively low for the 2nd place team in the SEC. The Aggies can really improve their résumé with a win here. Alabama has had some close games lately, they went to overtime with Auburn and only beat Arkansas by 3. Alabama has only covered once in its last five games, and it is in a letdown spot after clinching the conference title earlier in the week. The Crimson Tide needed overtime to get past their rivals, making it an even more emotional game for a team that is still dealing with some outside drama caused by the Miller incident. Texas A&M has been excellent lately, they have covered 7 of their last 8, and Wade Taylor IV has been on a scoring tear. Emotions will be high for senior night, and Texas A&M will come out on top. Texas A&M is 21-5 ATS since 1998 when playing as a home underdog of 3 points or less, and they have not lost back to back games ATS in this situation since 1998. Texas A&M is 21-1 SU at home since February 15, 2022, also going 13-4 ATS during that winning streak. Texas A&M is 6-1 SU at home vs Alabama since 1998. Alabama has won just 3 games since 1997 when they are just a 1 point road favorite. Take Texas A&M as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
Important note: the analysis was made yesterday when Texas A&M was a 1 point underdog ( some clients received the play earlier ) , but the play is still valid, and we are still going to take Texas A&M -1.5.
NCAAB Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 7, 2023 )
Loyola-Chicago vs. St. Joseph`s
Bet: St. Joseph`s -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Saint Joseph’s handled Loyola-Chicago in both games this year, smoking the Ramblers 86-55 back on January 14th, and beating them again on February 8th by a score of 83-71. They are in for a similar story this time around. To be frank, Loyola was very bad this season, going just 4-14 in conference play and losing six of their final eight games. Specifically, it’s been the defense that’s hindered them. This unit is allowing opponents to hit 45.2% of their shots, making them the 252nd-best team in defensive shooting. In terms of efficiency, the Ramblers are 261st, giving up 109.6 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks will once again take full advantage of the Ramblers' propensity to turn the ball over, averaging 17 turnovers per game against St. Joe's and last in the conference in turnovers. St. Joe’s has capitalized on the rare opportunity to play bully in conference play, and they will complete the trifecta. Despite the final results down the stretch, Erik Reynolds II and Lynn Greer III looked a lot like an infamous SJU backcourt we all remember in Jameer Nelson and Delonte West offensively. SJU plays through the strength of their backcourt, and they’re led by Erik Reynolds II. The sophomore guard closed the season with back-to-back 33-point outings, and he leads SJU in scoring at 19.4 ppg. Second-year guard Lynn Greer III has lived up to his father’s name down the stretch, and after scoring 20 points or more in five of the last seven games, he’s posting a nice line of 12.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and a team-lead 4.0 apg. The Hawks outscored the Ramblers by a total of 43 points in their 2 wins this season. The Hawks' dynamic duo of Erik Reynolds II and Lynn Greer III led the way in both wins. Reynolds averaged 19 points per game in the two wins while Greer added 17 points per game. Take St. Joseph`s as our NCAAB Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 2, 2023 )
Lafayette vs. Lehigh
Bet: Lehigh -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
The Lehigh Mountain Hawks are averaging 71.1 points ( 3rd best among Patriot League Teams ) on 44.6 percent shooting and allowing 68.9 points on 42.8 percent shooting. Also, Lehigh is shooting 74% from the free throw line (270/364) this season, which is best among Patriot League Teams. Keith Higgins Jr. is averaging 14.7 points and 2 assists, while Evan Taylor is averaging 14.7 points and 6.6 rebounds. Tyler Whitney-Sidney is the third double-digit scorer and Jakob Alamudun is grabbing 3 rebounds. The Lehigh Mountain Hawks are shooting 36.6 percent from beyond the arc and 74.4 percent from the free throw line. The Lehigh Mountain Hawks are allowing 31.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 30.6 rebounds per game. On the other hand, Lafayette finished at 9-22 after losing to Bucknell on the road. The Leopards let the Bison pull away in the second half, and they’d fall by ten, 75-65. Lafayette is scoring only 60.5 points per game, while allowing 64.6 ppg, and shooting 40.2% from the field. The Lafayette Leopards have been a hard time to get behind given their constant losses, and they’re even worse right now, losing their last 5 games by an average of 4.6 points. Lafayette loses as underdogs by an average of 5.6 points. Lafayette are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Lehigh is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Lehigh is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Lehigh has a good chance to win this conference tournament, and their cross-town rivals will serve as a nice spot to start. Lafayette has already fallen to the Mountain Hawks twice, and if they don’t have veteran guard CJ Fulton in this contest, they’ll certainly have huge trouble with the opposing backcourt. Lehigh is better on both sides of the ball and will overwhelm one of the worst teams in the conference. Take Lehigh as our NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for March 1, 2023 )
Xavier vs. Providence
Bet: Providence -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
After booming wins against the Creighton Bluejays and the Villanova Wildcats – both at home – the Friars ran into a brick wall last Wednesday in the form of the UConn Huskies, as they absorbed an 87-69 road loss. Providence’s offense got effectively shut down by the Huskies, with the Friars shooting just 41.5 percent from the field. But it was really in the rebounding battle where Providence got hurt by the Huskies, who had 40 rebounds to only 20 by the Friars. That likely won’t be an issue for Providence this Wednesday though. For one the Friars outrebounded the Musketeers in the previous encounter, 44-40. Providence, which beat the lowly Georgetown Hoyas as expected on Sunday on the road by 20 points (88-68), also has plenty of capable wing guys, who can break down Xavier’s defense again. Bryce Hopkins, Devin Carter, and Noah Locke combined for 58 points in the loss to Xavier earlier in February, but that was a really close loss at Xavier which needed overtime to win 85-83, but they are playing at home this time and Providence feeds off the energy of its home crowd. Also, the good news for Providence is that they won't have to face Zach Freemantle as he is still bothered by his foot injury. He was a top producer, scoring 15.2 points per game while leading the way on the glass with 8.1 rebounds per contest. Furthermore, Xavier gives up too many points and the defensive stats are poor. They rank 313th in three-point defense and Providence is above average from deep. They connected on 45% of their threes in the first meeting against Xavier. Providence has a slight rebounding advantage and that was on display in the meeting earlier this month where they out-rebounded Xavier. Providence is just too tough at home this season and look for them to get to 16-0 in their home gym. Providence is 29-1 SU since 2021 in their last 30 home games, and their only loss during that winning streak came when they`ve actually been an underdog. Providence is 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS since 2019 when playing as a home favorite of 4 points or less. Providence is 11-2 ATS since 2017 when playing against Xavier, winning 6 straight ATS games in this series. Xavier has won only 3 games since 1996 when playing in March as a road underdog, also going 0-8 SU in this situation since 2013. Take Providence as our NCAAB Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 24, 2023 )
South Alabama vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Bet: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -4/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
On Friday, the South Alabama Jaguars visit the Cajundome in Lafayette, Louisiana to play the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns in a Sun Belt Conference clash. South Alabama improved to 16-14 overall and 9-8 in Sun Belt play following its 76-67 victory over Texas State on Wednesday. Isaiah Moore was the leading scorer for South Alabama with 22 points. The Jaguars have won each of their last five. Isaiah Moore is leading South Alabama in scoring and assists with averages of 18.3 points and 4.6 assists per game, while Kevin Samuel is the second leading scorer and the leading rebounder with averages of 10.2 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. South Alabama has only two players averaging double figures in scoring. Louisiana looks for its second consecutive victory on Friday when hosting South Alabama. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 22-7 overall and 12-5 in Sun Belt play following their 85-74 victory over Arkansas State on Wednesday. Jordan Brown was the leading scorer for Louisiana with 24 points. Jordan Brown is leading Louisiana in scoring and rebounding with averages of 19.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, while Themus Fulks is the leader in assists with an average of 6.2 assists per game. Louisiana has three players averaging double figures in scoring and as a team is scoring an average of 79.3 points per game, while shooting 48.5% overall and 38.4% from 3-point territory. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns has a 14 home game winning streak dating back to February 19, 2022 and they are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games when playing as a favorite of 4 points or less. Take Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns as our NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 23, 2023 )
Cal Baptist vs. Sam Houston
Bet: Sam Houston -6/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Sam Houston Bearkats (20-6, 10-4 WAC) will attempt to continue a three-game winning streak when they host the Cal Baptist Lancers (15-12, 7-7 WAC) on Thursday, February 23, 2023 at Bernard Johnson Coliseum. The Bearkats are a 6-point favorite against the Lancers when the Bearkats and the Lancers meet. Sam Houston managed to go 14-5 across their first 19 outings of the year. The Bearkats are 6-1 in their last seven with wins over UTRGV, Seattle, UTRGV again, Abilene Christian, TX-Arlington and Tarleton State. Matched up against Tarleton State on Saturday, the Bearkats took a 34-27 lead into the locker room and ended up winning 64-59 as a 2.5 point road favorite. Donte Powers and Cameron Huefner each posted 20 points to lead the way. California Baptist’s leading scorer this season is Taran Armstrong, who is averaging 11.7 points per contest. So far, Armstrong has accounted for 15.87% of the team’s scoring. In addition, he is contributing 4.63 rebounds per game and 4.93 assists. Riley Battin is the second leading scorer for the Lancers, averaging 9.74 points per game. Between him and Battin, they are accounting for 29.1% of the team’s scoring. Offensive production has been hard to come by for California Baptist this season, as they are currently ranked 196th in college basketball at 71.0 points per game. A major reason for low scoring totals is the fact that they have played at a below average pace, and have struggled to knock down outside shots. As a team, the Lancers’ 3-point shooting percentage sits at just 33.2%, placing them 312th in the NCAA. So far this season, Sam Houston State has played 11 games at home, sitting with a record of 10-1. The Bearkats’ are sitting with a betting line that is -6 points in their favor. For the season, Sam Houston State has been favored to win in 15 games, sitting with a mark of 13-2. One trend that we feel strongly about is the fact that Sam Houston State has historically performed well against the spread in this situation, they are 13-2 ATS since December 19, 2020 when playing as a favorite of 6 points or less. Also, these 2 teams have met 2 times last year, and none of those meetings ended up well for Cal Baptist. In their first meeting Cal Baptist lost 68-73 playing as a 1 point home underdog, and in their second meeting, San Houston completely crushed Cal Baptist, winning by 30 points ( 35-65 ) playing as a 3.5 points home favorite. We don`t expect another 30 points win this time, but we see San Houston winning again by double digits. Take Sam Houston as our NCAAB Favorite Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 22, 2023 )
Maine vs. New Hampshire
Bet: New Hampshire -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
America East foes square off when the New Hampshire Wildcats (12-13, 7-6 America East) host the Maine Black Bears (11-15, 5-8 America East) at Lundholm Gymnasium, beginning at 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, February 22, 2023. The Maine Black Bears are averaging 69.3 points on 46.4 percent shooting and allowing 69.3 points on 46.2 percent shooting. Gedi Juozapaitis is averaging 15.1 points and 1.9 assists, while Kellen Tynes is averaging 14.3 points and 4.4 rebounds. Peter Filipovity is grabbing 6 rebounds and Kristians Feierbergs is dishing 0.8 assists. The Maine Black Bears are shooting 34.9 percent from beyond the arc and 74 percent from the free throw line. The Maine Black Bears are allowing 34.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 26.8 rebounds per game. The New Hampshire Wildcats are averaging 66.9 points on 39.9 percent shooting and allowing 66.6 points on 42.5 percent shooting. Clarence O. Daniels II is averaging 15.4 points and 10.6 rebounds, while Nick Johnson is averaging 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds. Kyree Brown is the third double-digit scorer and Matt Herasme is dishing 2 assists. The New Hampshire Wildcats are shooting 34.9 percent from beyond the arc and 68.8 percent from the free throw line. The New Hampshire Wildcats are allowing 30.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 34 rebounds per game. The New Hampshire Wildcats are not in the best shape at the moment, but they have been the better team this season, and being at home gives them the edge. Also, lets not forget that New Hampshire as a 3.5 points underdog already beat Maine on the road by 13 points on January 11, 2023. New Hampshire is also 13-4 SU vs Maine since 2015, winning the last 7 home games in this series too. The Maine Black Bears lose on the road by an average of 9.6 points, while New Hampshire wins at home by an average of 10.3 points. Take New Hampshire as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 21, 2023 )
Indiana vs. Michigan State
Bet: Michigan State -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Indiana has been great at home this season, losing only once against Northwestern. However, the Hoosiers rank 359th among the 363 teams in Haslametrics’ Away from Home metric. This game is obviously played at Michigan State, so the Spartans will have a strong advantage before the ball is even tipped. From a matchup perspective, Michigan State has the defense to combat Indiana’s post-centric offense. Per Synergy, Indiana plays through post-ups at the sixth-highest rate in the country, mostly through Trayce Jackson-Davis. On the other side, Michigan State is strong in post defense, ranking in the 87th percentile. There’s been no stopping Jackson-Davis lately, but the key for the Spartans will be to not let the other Hoosiers shoot 9/15 from beyond the arc. Tom Izzo's been in control of this Spartans program for so long that we`ve grown accustomed to the thinking that he'll have his guys bounce back, especially after a rough defensive outing. This year it's been no different, as Michigan State is 2-0 SU in games following an outing where the Spartans allowed 80+ points. Both of those wins came against decent teams (Oregon, Iowa), and the fact that Michigan State is also 6-3 ATS this year when coming off a loss and covering the spread by an average of 3.3 points in those games doesn't hurt either. Simply put, we can't completely trust Indiana to give the scoring support to Trace Jackson-Davis when they are on the road. The Hoosiers haven't scored more than 62 points in any of their past four road games overall and went 1-3 ATS in the process. Michigan State is 22-2 SU at home since 1996 vs Indiana. Take Michigan State as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 20, 2023 )
Kansas vs. TCU
Bet: Kansas moneyline/+100 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand )
We are predicting that the Jayhawks will win straight-up on Monday, riding the momentum generated in their second-half beatdown of Baylor on Saturday. Kansas is 15th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency, the type of team you can count on this time of the season. TCU is also solid on both ends of the floor but a little less consistent offensively. If it gets into a higher-scoring game, it's at a disadvantage with its poor three-point shooting percentage (29.2%) and free-throw percentage (69.9%). The Horned Frogs have been slipping, and one win over Oklahoma State doesn't change that. TCU has not won back-to-back games when playing as a 2 points home favorite or less since 1997, and Kansas is 26-4 SU since 1997 vs TCU. With the spread at just 2 points, bet on the Jayhawks to win as money line underdogs with plus odds. Take Kansas as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 18, 2023 )
Villanova Wildcats vs. Providence Friars
Bet: Providence Friars -4/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Villanova Wildcats and the Providence Friars will meet on Saturday for a Big East Conference game. Villanova is having a down season under first-year head coach Kyle Neptune with just a 13-13 overall record. The Wildcats have won 3 straight games, beating DePaul, Seton Hall and Butler, but will be in for a test in this matchup. Those were much-needed wins for Villanova, but this team has yet to prove it can beat good teams away from home. This should be a close conference game, but the spread seems too low for a Providence team that has been dominant at home. The Friars are having another great season and should continue their quest at back-to-back Big East titles with a win against Villanova. The Friars are the better team and are an undefeated 14-0 on their home floor. In their first matchup, Providence beat Villanova 70-65 on the road, and we expect a similar result as they return home. Providence’s offense should be the difference-maker this time. Their offense is averaging 78.6 points per game while Villanova’s offense is averaging just 69.4 points per game. Providence’s offense is ranked #21 in adjusted efficiency and that should be on full display on their home court. Providence has shown it is one of the best teams in the conference and the Friars are simply too good at home to bet against today. Take Providence Friars as our NCAAB Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 17, 2023 )
Purdue vs. Maryland
Bet: Maryland moneyline /+100 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Is this a revenge game for Maryland? Of course it is, but there are a lot of revenge games against Purdue. However, Maryland defended the three-point shot (2-of-13) extremely well and held Purdue to just 38% shooting in the first mathcup. They also forced 13 turnovers with their pressure defense and that will be the case again on Thursday night in front of a very raucous crowd in College Park. The Terps will shoot better at home and they normally do, making 46.4% of their shots at Xfinity Center compared to 44.1% overall. The Maryland Terrapins are averaging 70.8 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 62.8 points on 41.7 percent shooting. Jahmir Young is averaging 16.2 points and 4.8 rebounds, while Donta Scott is averaging 12 points and 6.2 rebounds. Hakim Hart is the third double-digit scorer and Julian Reese is grabbing 6.4 rebounds. The Maryland Terrapins are shooting 30.4 percent from beyond the arc and 74.1 percent from the free throw line. The Maryland Terrapins are allowing 31.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 32 rebounds per game. The Purdue Boilermakers are going to be favored for obvious reasons, but Maryland is playing some of its best ball of the season, it’s a talented team and playing in Maryland is never easy. The Terps win at home by an average of 12.4 points and are 10-4 ATS. Expect a packed house and a motivated team, as a win here does wonders for the resume. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Maryland as our NCAAB Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
Super Bowl Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play ( Play released for February 12, 2023 )
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs ML/+107 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
This line currently sits at +1.5 but we believe once WR`s JuJu Smith-Schuster and potentially Kadarius Toney are cleared to play this week, that this could close pick’em. It may be a closed-minded way to look at this game but KC is 16-3 and their three losses have been by a combined 10 points. They haven’t lost by more than four points all season. It’s difficult to fully evaluate this Eagles team, and especially their defense, based on them playing the single easiest schedule in the NFL. Even when the Eagles faced tough competition, they catch a break with Dak Prescott out in their first matchup against Dallas, Aaron Rodgers exiting in the middle of their matchup and Brock Purdy getting injured against San Francisco in the NFC title game. The Eagles pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL in EPA per drop back allowed. Mahomes is #1 in the NFL among QBs in EPA per drop back. The Eagles have only faced two QBs ranked in the top 10 in EPA this season (Dak #7 and Goff #8). Dak posted a +0.27 EPA per drop back with a 59% success rate against Philly. That was Dak’s 5th best EPA and success rate out of 12 regular season games this season. Goff posted a +0.036 EPA and 39% success rate against the Eagles defense, which ranks as his 4th worst EPA and 2nd worst success rate of the season. They also faced #12 ranked Trevor Lawrence but even that game was played in a monsoon. There is no doubting that the Eagles defense is talented, with the 2nd best pressure rate defense in the NFL and two top notch CBs in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. But are they really the best pass defense in the NFL?! Likely not. Mahomes has played seven games (SF, Den 2x, LAC 2x and Cincinnati 2x) against top 10 EPA pass defenses. KC went 6-1 in those games and produced an EPA per drop back of +0.277, equivalent to the 2nd best QB in the NFL for a full season. To us the Broncos defense is the closest comparison to the Eagles and Mahomes threw for 320+ in both games. The Eagles weakness on defense is definitely their LB corps and we don’t see them being able to slow down Travis Kelce over the middle of the field. If Jalen Hurts was mid season Hurts and not dealing with a bad shoulder, we would likely not release a play on the Super Bowl. But since he’s been back, he has posted a poor 42% success rate and -3.0 completion percentage over expected. He has routinely missed throws down the field and has only thrown for 6.0 yards per attempt. That is a far cry from his pre injury performance and he has not proven lately that he could be relied on to make big throws when needed in a close game. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL this season (among 33 quarterbacks with at least 250 drop backs, including the playoffs) in Passing NEP per drop back (0.31), more than five times better than the NFL average of 0.06. When you adjust every single drop back these two had against the opponent faced, Mahomes has accrued 0.25 Passing NEP per drop back over expectation. Put another way, if he played to opponent level on every pass, he'd have had a league-average output of 0.06. He simply dominated once accounting for opponents. If the Chiefs get ahead early, it may be lights out. The Philadelphia Eagles have never beaten a Andy Reid team when he`s been the Head coach. The Chiefs even beat Philly the year the Eagles won the SuperBowl. Lastly, the coaching playoff experience may be important here, Andy Reid has 37 games while Nick Sirianni only 3. Take Kansas as our Super Bowl Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Kansas City Chiefs will have revenge on their minds in this exact spot against the Bengals last year where they squandered an 11-point halftime lead, later losing in overtime. The Chiefs are no strangers to this spot. After going up 21-3 in the 2022 AFC Championship, the Chiefs allowed the Bengals to force overtime and later watched an Evan McPherson field goal shatter their Super Bowl hopes. They’ll have an extra sense of motivation heading into this one as they once again have home-field advantage over the visiting Bengals. The way to attack Cincinnati’s offensive line is to get it in third-and-longs where Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can get creative with blitzes and pressures. Kansas needs to get there first, though and that will have to start with winning first and second downs while stopping Mixon and Perine. On the Chiefs’ side, the team’s great offensive advantage this season, compared to the offense that lost in the AFC Championship to these Bengals, is greater versatility. If Cincinnati wants to drop eight into coverage as it did a year ago, Kansas has more of a power game it can utilize. Running back Isiah Pacheco brings a different edge on those types of carries, while the Chiefs also have relied heavier on under-center and multiple-tight-end setups this season that provide a more physical look if defenses try to play with smaller personnel. Kansas’s offensive linemen appeared motivated to elevate their game to help out Mahomes against Jacksonville, getting downhill as Pacheco averaged 7.9 yards per carry. There’s one more wild card: Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones. Way back in June, unprompted, Jones spoke about his motivation for the season being last year’s AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead. If Jones had brought down Burrow on a couple of potential sacks like he felt he should have, he believed the final result would’ve been different. On paper, this is a huge mismatch. Cincinnati’s offensive line should struggle to block Jones if he’s his usual self. Ultimately, we don’t believe Cincinnati has some hex on Kansas by winning three straight, we actually believe Kansas will be more motivated than ever to beat Cincinnati. Some randomness can easily explain that, and it’s not like the Bengals have dominated the Chiefs. Kansas held at least a 75% win probability chance at some point in the fourth quarter of each of those three losses. We see Chiefs coach Andy Reid working around Mahomes’ ankle limitations with an intelligent game plan, and Mahomes performing above expectations in what’s likely to be a legacy game for him. Kansas’s run game should be effective, and we think Jones will come through in the game he previously promised he would. The Chiefs know where the Bengals will attack them and how to slow them down, they need to contain Mixon, Chase and Higgins above all else. The Chiers are more unpredictable in their usage of Kelce's complementary weapons, with Kadarius Toney and Jerick McKinnon both capable of making a game-changing play with one touch. Mahomes also picks good spots to use JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at wideout, and he hasn't been afraid to dig deep in four-wide or two-tight sets. Take Kansas City Chiefs as our NFL Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Bengals have been overlooked for much of the season so it's not surprising to see them as an underdog here. What is surprising is the point margin. Burrow has thrown for a 70% completion rate in his last three games and has five touchdown passes and just two interceptions. He protected the ball against Baltimore last week, avoiding any interceptions. Allen, however, has struggled with turnovers over his last three games. Allen is completing just 59% of his passes in that span while throwing eight touchdowns and throwing five interceptions. On the season, Buffalo is ranked just 15th in the NFL turnover differential while the Bengals are a solid fifth. While the Bengals offensive line issues are concerning, Burrow has experience dealing with such issues. Look for running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine to get a lot of short looks out of the backfield to protect Burrow. Allen is healthier than he's been since the beginning of the season but has struggled with turnovers. He now faces a Bengals defense that has 10 sacks in their last three games. Josh Allen often looked rattled by Miami’s blitz-heavy pass rush; he turned the ball over 3 times and took 7 sacks. And that was against a Dolphins defense that was pretty banged up. Despite the fact that Thompson was a 3rd-string quarterback who only averaged 4.9 yards per attempt and was 18 of 45, Buffalo barely managed to advance. The Bengals have arguably been playing the most consistent football in the NFL over the past couple of months, and they enter this one having won 9 games in a row. They aren’t getting nearly enough respect for a team that’s on a 9-game winning streak. The Bills had a really easy matchup in the first round, and just look at who they finished the regular season playing against. Their final 7 games came against the Patriots, Bears, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Lions and Browns. Miami was the only one of those teams who made the playoffs and the Bills have played just 2 teams that made the postseason since all the way back in Week 6. One of those was the Dolphins, whom they beat by 3 points, and they lost to the Vikings at home. Take Cincinnati as our NFL Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: 6.5 points teaser: Cincinnati Bengals -2 and San Francisco 49ers -2.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Lamar Jackson has not practiced in a month-plus since his Dec. 4 knee injury. It’s unclear if he’ll be available. His status as a potential free agent looms here. Jackson and the Ravens could have differing views on his status. The Bengals finished a best-in-the-AFC 12-4 ATS. Joe Burrow has completed 68.2% of his passes in his past five games, with 12 TD passes and just four picks. Talk to the paw.San Francisco is on a ten-game win streak and has covered seven of its past eight games. The 49ers will rely on a stout defense to win games in January, a tried-and-true formula for playoff success. SF has 30 takeaways, surrenders only 5.0 yards per play, and has held eight of its last ten opponents to under 20 points. The 49ers routinely rush the QB with only four players, dropping seven players in coverage. Their ability to get to the quarterback with fewer pass rushers is unmatched and primarily why they excel on the defensive side. The rookie Purdy is 5-0 as a starter and has excelled in the red zone, partially due to his fantastic supporting cast. Kittle has been on a tear over the past several weeks and is a matchup nightmare, especially for a Seahawks defense that's done a poor job defending tight ends. McCaffrey is questionable with a sore knee but practiced Wednesday and has been playing well despite the injury. In the past six games, he's accumulated 767 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on 128 touches. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and the Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC. Seattle is also 1-7 ATS in its last eight overall.
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New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Bet: Minnesota Vikings -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
The Giants played one of their best games of the season when these two first met, while the Vikings played one of their worst games. With all that said, the Vikings were still able to come away with the three-point win, and with the crowd likely to be much more lively in this one and Minnesota getting out of the gates quicker, grabbing the win will be easy. The Vikings know that winning the ground game battle is going to be key and with an early emphasis on running the ball, they should be able to control the clock much better than they did in the first meeting. Adding in their depth at receiver, playing this one as a shootout is going to be a massive advantage, especially given the lack of a passing attack for the Giants. Additionally, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Take Minnesota as our NFL Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Blowout Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 8, 2023 )
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -13.5/-115 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The NY Giants have clinched their playoff spot, but there’s still one more game in the regular season, and it comes against the Philadelphia Eagles. Rivalry or not, this won’t be the kind of matchup that everyone would have expected. While the Giants can’t move up or down seeding wise, the Eagles need to win to clinch the No. 1 seed. Ironically, the game between the two NFC East rivals means a lot more to Philadelphia than New York. The Eagles need this game badly to hold off the Cowboys and 49ers. Jalen Hurts is expected to return nearly fully healthy coming off his right shoulder injury. The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and will rest players under Brian Daboll, and that is the wise choice, because they should like the current opening playoff matchup vs. the Vikings. The Eagles are 13.5 point favorites in this one. Considering they’re going to have all their starters playing against the Giants backups that seems light. Given the circumstances this may end up being the biggest blowout in the NFL this season. Philadelphia will take care of home field with more of their regular 2022 play. Take Philadelphia as our NFL Blowout Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Penn State vs Utah
Bet: Penn State +1/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Penn State comes into the game with only two losses — Ohio State and Michigan. They handled everyone else on their schedule pretty easily, but because of the two dominant teams in the conference, the Nittany Lions were largely overshadowed this season. They will be missing two key pieces for the game: star corner Joey Porter Jr and #1 wide receiver Parker Washington. Those are significant pieces, but the Nittany Lions can cover it. Utah comes into the game with three losses—the opener in the Swamp to Florida, and tough road losses at UCLA and Oregon. No shame in those losses either. Utah will be missing a few key pieces in the game. The Utes will be missing their top running back, Tavion Thomas, who had a late-season toe injury and is NFL-bound. They are also missing their top corner, Clark Phillips III, and maybe most significantly, tight end Dalton Kincaid, both NFL opt-outs. Kincaid in particular is the best receiving threat on the team and Cam Rising’s favorite target. We think the missing players hurt Utah more than they hurt Penn State. We also think Penn State has been undervalued all year while living in the shadow of Buckeyes and Wolverines. Penn State’s season was truly spectacular, as they not only finished ninth in the AP rankings, but they were also only defeated by Michigan and Ohio State, conference rivals who are playing in the national semifinals. The great Nittany Lions performance was basically supported by their good defense. Proof of this is that in their last four games they allowed only 40 total points, finishing the year ninth in the nation in average points conceded per game with just 18.0. More specifically, their forte was stopping the ground attack, where they finished 15th in the league with just 106.2 yards allowed per game. Penn State has an advantage, not only because of their good defensive performance, but also because they are experts on stopping the ground attack, precisely Utah’s forte. Take Penn State as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for January 1, 2023 )
Vikings vs. Packers
Bet: Packers -3/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
The Packers are fighting for their lives and have to win out to get in. Thus, expect them to throw their best at Minnesota, and it starts with Rodgers. He has a 64.8 percent completion rate with a 91.3 quarterback rating. Additionally, he also has passed for 3,331 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Jones has rushed 187 times for 962 yards and two touchdowns while catching 54 passes for 373 yards and five scores. Meanwhile, Dillon has rushed 165 times for 696 yards and six touchdowns while catching 28 passes for 206 yards. Lazard has 51 catches for 688 yards and five touchdowns, while Watson has 35 catches for 496 yards and seven touchdowns. However, Watson might not play this week after missing practice. Doubs has done well in limited action, with 39 catches for 405 yards and three touchdowns. The defense has played short-handed but are persevering. Significantly, Rasul Douglas has continued to excel, with 56 solo tackles, one sack and, four interceptions. The defense must show up and find ways to guard Jefferson to prevent the Vikings from moving the chains. Therefore, they must double-team him and force Cousins to throw elsewhere. With Kenny Clark and Jarran Reed, Green Bay should be able to exploit the Vikings' interior offensive line's struggles in pass protection. And the bottom line is that it's really hard to sweep a good divisional opponent. Once again, the team with the better record is an underdog on the road after Minnesota was an underdog in Detroit just three weeks ago. Cousins has had some tough games in the cold in his career, and we he will struggle once again this weekend. Green Bay is hot right now, and it's hard to bet against Rodgers in must-win games. Minnesota is 4-16 ATS since 1988 when playing on the road in January, and 2-9 ATS when playing as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 2016.
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Ohio State vs. Georgia
Bet: Georgia -6/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
Georgia will begin the College Football Playoff in the same stadium its season started: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This time the Bulldogs face Ohio State instead of Oregon. This number opened up at Georgia -6.5 and has held steady, avoiding the key number of 7 to this point. Georgia’s defense gave up the fewest touchdowns in the nation through the regular season, allowing just 13 through 12 games. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs quietly averaged nearly 40 points per game on offense with Heisman finalist quarterback Stetson Bennett leading the way. For all their dominance, Georgia has found themselves in some closer games than expected this year. But whenever UGA has needed a dominant performance, they’ve got it. Their opener against Oregon, their rivalry games against Auburn and Florida and their matchup with Tennessee all saw Georgia at their very best. We expect the same here. Ohio State’s defense has allowed over 29 points per game over their last 3 games. That’s a bad trend against the nation’s most efficient passer in Bennett. Add in tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington, who are matchup nightmares for opposing defenses, and it could be a tough night for the Buckeyes. The way Georgia slowed down Tennessee and wide receiver Jaylin Hyatt, will be similar to what they will do against the Buckeyes’ Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State’s injuries in the run game have affected their offense, but we are not sure they’d have success anyway against the best run defense in the nation. Georgia should slow the pace and grind Ohio State to a halt, much like they did against Tennessee. Ohio State is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record, while Georgia is 8-2 ATS in their last ten bowl games. Georgia can do a lot of the same things to Ohio State that Michigan did. The only difference is the Bulldogs will do that with the most talented roster in college football. Take Georgia as our NCAAF Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Bet: Florida State -9.5/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Loser
This line has moved a point and a half since opening at -8 in favor of the Seminoles and, for good reason. Oklahoma will be without their two starting tackles against one of the country's premier pass rushes and the 4th ranked pass defense in the country. Florida State, meanwhile, has their full compliment of offensive weapons going up against, at best, a subpar Sooners defense. The Sooners' defense took a major hit losing Redmond in this matchup as he represents the Sooners biggest disruptor on defense. Jordan Travis looks like a strong candidate for Most Outstanding Player for this bowl game with his ability to throw and run the football. Travis may even get a key receiver back in Wright which will only strengthen Florida State's passing attack against a shaky Sooners' secondary. The Seminoles are stronger on both sides of the ball, and significantly so on defense. Florida States’ pass defense ranks third in the nation allowing just 159 yards per game, so it’s not like Gabriel and Mims will have a field day. Florida State also got defensive standouts in defensive end Jared Verse and safety Jammie Robinson to stay in school and play in this game. Florida State will also have an advantage in the run game with Trey Benson, who averages nearly seven yards per carry, against a bad Oklahoma run defense that allows 189 rushing yards per game. There is just too much firepower on both sides of the ball for Florida State. They have more continuity, and that familiarity will be enough for them to emerge victorious and escape with the -9.5 cover. Take Florida State as our NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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UCF vs. Duke
Bet: Duke -3/-125 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Duke is a team that, but for 16 points, is an undefeated team. They have a balanced offense and defense: Elko was a defensive coordinator and keeps defense top of mind, and it shows with their nationally ranked 24th-top defense. This was evident in the Wake Forest game, where Duke held a good Wake rushing game to 106 yards. Remember, Wake Forest was ranked #10 even at the end of October. This game would have been a different story if UCF was healthy and consistent at the quarterback slot. Plumee has a long-term hamstring injury and Castellanos will play a lot, or the offense will have to be reconfigured to allow for a low-mobility offense centered around QB. UCF is also questionable at defense, with Travis Williams out as defensive coordinator and a new coordinator for this game. The Tulane game was a harbinger of what will happen in this game: they will struggle under pressure against a good team. So many reasons to like Duke. Mike Elko has done a magnificent job in his 1st year, and we have to wonder what he and his staff can do with the extra practices. Elko is an excellent defensive coach. We know he'll be game planning for Plumlee, who will play. He has been banged up a lot and may not finish the game. Our issue with Plumlee is that while being a very good running QB, his passing accuracy is mediocre. He's also been broadcasting his intention to play baseball. He also has to put up with screaming Gus Malzahn. Malzahn is one of those coaches that players sometimes hate playing for, and makes them more nervous to make a mistake. UCF lost to Navy, got crushed in the AAC Championship and nearly lost a big lead to USF at the end of the season. The team looks discouraged and lost. UCF lost both their OC and DC before the bowl prep, along with 3 starters and the backup QB (who was a sometime starter). UCF ended the season poorly and the defense is also really poorly. Duke went 8-4, and even in their 4 losses, they were competitive. They should be able to take advantage of UCF with QB Riley Leonard's multi-talented skills. He's one of those guys that can drive a defense crazy scrambling, running, throwing deep and making a play out of nothing. We just have a sense that Duke is really motivated to play in a bowl game, and one close to home. Cold weather for the Florida boys. Duke is 5-0 ATS in its last five bowl games, and the Blue Devils have covered in the last three games. Take Duke as our NCAAF Blowout Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars +4/-110 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
Dallas is a massive public favorite this week based on the short line and who it is playing based on name which makes this another great contrarian spot. The Cowboys are on a four-game winning streak that includes three straight home wins and that alone is a tough spot playing on the road for the first time in a month. Dallas is 7-1 at home and get that extra home game based on the new schedules and get the Eagles there next week but come in only 3-2 on the highway with two of those wins coming against the overrated Giants and Vikings and the other against the hapless Rams. We cannot count out Jacksonville just yet. With a 2-1 record over its next three games coupled with a 1-2 Tennessee run in its next three games means a Week 18 showdown will decide the division based on the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jaguars got into this spot with a 36-22 win over Tennessee last week on the road and while up and down, they are coming together when it counts with a 3-2 record over their last five games which followed a five-game losing streak but those were all decided by one possession so their record could be flipped right now. Here, we play on home teams in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Take Jacksonville as our NFL Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for December 17, 2022 )
WSU vs. Fresno State
Bet: Fresno State ML/-140 ( sportsbook: MGM Grand ) Winner
So far, the Bulldogs not only had a strong overall record (9-4), but they also played well in Mountain West play, going 7-1. In their previous game, the Bulldogs picked up a 28-16 home win over Boise State. This was an impressive victory as they were also the 3.0-point underdogs. On offense, the Bulldogs are averaging 30.69 points per game, good for 60th in the NCAA. So far, a majority of their touchdowns have come on the ground, as they have rushed for 26 while throwing for 20. Fresno State is dangerous when it comes to punt returns, it is t-1 nationally on at 19.9 yards per return and has returned two punts to the house. The statistical numbers aren’t apples to apples given one team plays in the Pac-12 and the other in the Mountain West. But WSU and FSU have two common opponents this season: Oregon State and USC. Fresno State lost to OSU 35-32 in Week Two, and was beaten by USC 45-17 the following week. Washington State lost 30-14 to Southern Cal and the following week fell 24-10 to Oregon State. Wazzu started out strong vs. USC but faded offensively in the second half, while FSU was outmatched from the beginning.Wazzu allowed the Trojans only 369 yards of total offense, FSU gave up 517. But WSU arguably played its worst game of the season at Oregon State and while the defense did enough to win, the offense was one-dimensional and only scored 10 points. Meanwhile, Fresno State outgained OSU 492-397 in total yards and were in position to win their game with the Beavs at the end. Led by former UW quarterback Jake Haener, Fresno State has won eight consecutive games and beat Boise State in the Mountain West championship. The transfer portal has also changed the calculus, with 11 WSU players recently entering the transfer portal to FSU’s three. Several of the WSU portal entries are reserves and players down on the depth chart. But there are also some starters, including LB Francisco Mauigoa and WRs De’Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie. Fresno would like some sort of statement game vs. a PAC 12 opponent here. The game is in LA, and as many players are from that area, we think they'll want to perform well. Fresno was 2nd in the Mt. West in defensive efficiency, and will face a pretty good, but inconsistent QB in Cameron Ward. WSU has been a poor bowl team over the last many seasons, losing to CMU last year. Take Fresno State as our NCAAF Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Panthers vs Seahawks
Bet: Panthers +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Carolina Panthers have quietly gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They beat the Broncos by 13 and outgained them by 103 yards. They were tied late in the 4th quarter against the Ravens on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 while also losing to the Falcons by 3 in OT. And they crushed the Bucs by 18 at home for their five covers during this stretch. Now the Panthers are coming off a bye week with new life still very much alive in the NFC South. Their offense has new life with Sam Darnold, who played well in his first start against a good Denver defense. Darnold completed 11-of-19 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown, while the Panthers rushed for 185 yards as a team. Darnold won't have to do too much to keep the Panthers in this game because they should be able to run wild on this soft Seattle defense. The Panthers have rushed for at least 169 yards in four of their last six games. The Seahawks have allowed 122 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games and an average of 184.3 rushing yards per game in their last four. They rank 31st against the run at 155.3 yards per game and 28th at 4.9 yards per attempt. No question Seattle has the better offense and that unit has carried the team this season. But there are a lot of significant injuries for them on offense, especially at the running back position. WR DK Metcalf is questionable with a hip injury, and QB Geno Smith has a banged up shoulder. The Seahawks will be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 14th in scoring at 22.2 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. The Panthers have allowed 15 points or fewer in three consecutive games. Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - off a non-cover where they won SU as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1983. The spot favors the surging Panthers off a bye who are playing hard for interim head coach Steve Wilks. Take Carolina as our NFL Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for December 4, 2022 )
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Bet: Detroit Lions -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This matchup is not going to be one of the key talking points in the NFL this week, but it features a pair of teams that have quietly been improving this year. We are more impressed with the way Detroit is playing heading into this game, which is something that the betting market agrees with. The Lions have covered the spread in four of their last five games and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, while Jacksonville has only covered twice in its last eight games. The Jaguars continue to struggle defensively, with their wins coming in shootouts. Detroit’s defense has been playing much better of late, and the Lions have extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving—they have also covered the spread in eight of their last 10 home games. The Lions are 4-0 ATS since Week 9, winning 3 of those games outright. During this stretch, Detroit’s offense is 7th in EPA/play, and their offense is 16th, which is a far cry from their bottom-feeder numbers that side of the ball had to endure for the first 2 months of the season. The offense has produced consistently good numbers for most of the season thanks to great play along the offensive line, which is 5th in adjusted line yards created and has allowed the 2nd fewest sacks in the league. Meanwhile, the Jags offensive line is outside the top 20 in both of those categories. Jared Goff is ranked 19th out of 33 qualifying QBs in EPA+CPOE, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has the 6th highest PFF grade of any qualifying WR. Their defense has been slowly trending in the right direction, but they still need a lot more on the edge. Outside of Aidan Hutchinson, who has been stellar, nobody on the line has more than 2 sacks, and overall they are dead last in pass rush win rate. Jacksonville is 0-9 ATS since 1993 when playing as a 2 points road underdog or less, Jacksonville is 1-21 SU on the road in their last 22 games. Jacksonville is 0-9 SU since 2017 when playing as a road underdog in November. Detroit is 8-0 ATS and SU since 2013 when playing as a home favorite in November. The favorite is 8-0 ATS and SU in this series since 1995. That`s a 55-1 combined system to back our play. Take Detroit as our NFL Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
Biggest Release Ever NCAAF Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( December 3, 2022 )
Kansas State vs. TCU
Bet: Kansas State moneyline/+110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
TCU has been the definition of “survive and advance” all season long. Their blowout win over Iowa State was their first win of over 10 points since beating up Oklahoma back on October 1st. The Horned Frogs offense has only scored less than 30 points just twice this season, at Texas and at Baylor. They still have the top offense in the Big 12 and a top 20 offense nationally. Yet oddsmakers, the College Football Playoff Committee and fans have continually failed to back TCU this season. For all their success, TCU has only been a double-digit favorite twice this season: in their opener against Colorado and the finale against Iowa State. In the regular season match-up, TCU trailed at halftime by 11. It was just the second time this season they were trailing at half, the other being against Oklahoma State. The TCU defense held the Wildcats scoreless due to QB injuries to starter Adrian Martinez and then back Will Howard leaving 3rd strong Jake Rubley to throw an interception from which Kansas State never recovered. However, Howard went 13-for-20 for 225 and two touchdowns pacing the Wildcats to 28-17 lead at half. Since Howard has become the starter in the last four games, he’s completed 63.5% of his passes for 999 yards and 11 passing touchdowns. Kansas State’s total defense is second best in the conference. They are also second best in yards per play allowed and they’ve given up the fewest touchdowns in the Big 12. TCU has taken on 75% of the tickets early, but a sharp discrepancy in taking just 53% of the handle. There is no one that knows TCU better than us, and we are telling all of our clients to bet as much as they can on Kansas State moneyline, they will win this game outright and it will not be close either. Take Kansas State moneyline/+110 as our Biggest High Roller Play Ever released by our service, NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Shocker Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for December 3, 2022 )
Coastal Carolina vs. Troy
Bet: Troy -8.5/-110 sportsbook: Wynn LV ) - Winner
The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers take on the Troy Trojans in the Sun Belt title game. Coastal is the runner-up in the Sun Belt east division, but the winners, JMU, are not eligible for postseason play due to the NCAA’s rules on first-year FBS teams. Coastal still has had a phenomenal season and is 9-2 straight up but 4-6-1 against the spread. They have won some close games and are not as dominant as last year or 2020. Troy just edged out South Alabama for the West division title and is looking for its 7th Sun Belt title, which is the most of any team. Troy and Coastal are both fighting for a potential spot in the New Orleans Bowl, which historically has hosted the Sun Belt Champion. This game is a classic matchup between a very good offense and a very good defense. Coastal averages almost 30 points and over 400 yards per game. Troy allows on average just 16 points and a little over 300 yards on defense. This game will be played in Troy and they not only have a home-field advantage but they have been here before. They are tied for the most conference championships in Sun Belt History and know how to win these games. Coastal Carolina will also be without their star quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is arguably why this team has been winning so many games in the last 3 years. The Trojans are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games compared to Coastal’s 3-6-1 record. Take the Trojans as our NCAAF Shocker Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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North Texas vs UTSA
Bet: UTSA -8.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The North Texas Mean Green will take on the UTSA Roadrunners in San Antonio for the Conference USA Championship this Friday. UTSA has had a fantastic season going undefeated in conference play and ending the season with 10 wins. The biggest reason behind the success of the Roadrunners has been a potent offense led by Senior quarterback Frank Harris. This year, Harris threw for 3,500 yards along with 27 passing touchdowns. He not only beats you with his arm but with his legs rushing for eight touchdowns and averaging five yards a carry. It has been very difficult to slow down this Roadrunner offense ranking inside the top 15 in total yards allowed and points scored a game. UTSA will be without their star running back Brenden Brady because of an injury. The freshman Kevorian Barnes has been fantastic with his limited workload averaging six yards a carry and scoring five rushing touchdowns. Barnes will have a bigger role with the offense on Friday. The blueprint for UTSA has been to outscore the opponent regardless of the success of the Roadrunners’ defense. The Mean Green has also found success through the air with their veteran quarterback Austin Aune. Aune has thrown for over 30 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards. North Texas has had more of a rollercoaster season, only accumulating back-to-back wins twice this season. The running back duo of Ayo Adeyi and Oscar Adaway III have been a solid one, two punch for this Mean Green rushing game. They both accumulated over 1,200 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in the season. This duo has lingering injuries that will slow them down on Friday. Most bettors will most likely take the underdog in this game because of the high spread, but we will side with the better team here to win by double digits to cover the spread. Take UTSA as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 27, 2022 )
Bengals vs Titans
Bet: Bengals -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will be hammering the Cincinnati Bengals and we will lay the points (-2) on the road. We see Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense throwing the ball all over this Tennessee secondary. The Bengals are throwing for the fourth most yards per game and they are scoring the third most points as a team. They will continue to march the ball down the field and score enough points to cover this spread. Ja'Marr Chase could also return for this game, as this would be a huge boost for this offense. Even if he can't play, the Bengals have enough weapons to stay efficient on the offensive side of the field. The Titans are also surrendering the 30th most passing yards per game, as their secondary has continued to give up big play after big play. They won't be able to slow down this Bengals offense, as Cincinnati will slowly pull away. We see the Titans' offense struggling to score enough points to cover this spread. They are averaging the 24th most points scored and the 29th most total yards. The Bengals will be able to make just enough stops to get the win in this game. Everyone is excited about this Titans team after beating the Packers, but Green Bay has stunk all season. It isn't that impressive, as the Bengals will put them back into their place in this game. Take the Bengals as our NFL Game of the Year No Limit Play.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 26, 2022 )
Minnesota vs Wisconsin
Bet: Minnesota +3.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
At 4-4 in conference play, both the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Wisconsin Badgers will be looking to finish this campaign with a conference record over .500 when they duke it out on Saturday afternoon. For the Badgers, their offense is on a bit of a cold streak with 23 points or less in 3 straight outings, as well as 4 total turnovers in that span. Wisconsin is also coming off of a 15-point, 318-yard performance against a fairly bad Nebraska squad. Minnesota isn’t that much better offensively, but they do have a workhorse in running back Mohamed Ibrahim. He’s toted the rock 30+ times in 5 straight games while also gaining at least 100 yards in every game he’s played in this season. The Golden Gophers heart and soul runs through their defense, which has held 4 straight opponents to 13 points or less. They also rank 7th in FBS in total yards allowed per game at 274.5. The Badgers played against Iowa a couple weeks ago, who possess a similar defense to the one they’ll be facing in Minnesota. They were held to just 10 points on a measly 3.4 yards per play while committing 3 turnovers. The Badgers have covered in just 3 of their last 8 outings while the Golden Gophers have lost by 4 or more in just 3 contests this year, all against better competition than Wisconsin. Side with Minnesota as our Guaranteed NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year.
NFL Game of Month Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 20, 2022 )
Detroit vs New York Giants
Bet: Detroit +3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Detroit outscored Chicago 21-6 in the 4th quarter and erased a 2-score deficit to earn the first road victory in the Dan Campbell era this past Sunday. Meanwhile, the Giants needed every ounce of Saquon Barkley’s 152-yard effort on 35 carries to get past the lowly Texans and barely cover the spread. Dameon Pierce averaged more than 5 yards per carry against this New York defense and I can see a healthy stable of Lions backs having similar success behind an offensive line that is top 10 in run block win rate this season. Both Jared Goff and Daniel Jones graded out in the top 5 of the QB efficiency rankings this week. We think it’s fair to say both present similar floors and ceilings in this matchup. The big difference for us here is Detroit’s defense, which is trending up over the last 2 weeks ranked 13th in EPA/play. Rookie Aidan Hutchinson continues to improve and is looking like a bona fide star on the edge. We love New York head coach Brian Daboll, and this coaching staff has done an incredible job with getting this roster into playoff position, but the Giants are painfully average in almost every category, including being outside the top 15 in all 4 win rate categories (pass rush, pass block, run block, run stop). Detroit is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against the NFC. Take Detroit as our Guaranteed NFL Game of the Month No Limit Play.
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Navy vs UCF
Bet: Navy +16.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This is a terrible spot for UCF this week. They are coming off three straight wins that went down to the wire, a 25-21 win over Cincinnati, a 35-28 win at Memphis and a 38-31 win at Tulane. They will now be playing for a 7th consecutive week and we don't think they have much gas left in the tank here. This is the ideal letdown spot for UCF now taking a step down in class against Navy. UCF is guaranteed to go to the AAC Championship Game as long as they win one of their next two games against Navy or South Florida. They hold the tiebreaker over Tulane and Cincinnati, and those two play each other next week so one of them is guaranteed to have two losses. Knowing UCF has AAC bottom feeder USF on deck next week if need be will have them relaxing this week. UCF won't have its normal home-field advantage this week with this game starting at 11:00 AM EST Saturday morning. It won't be nearly as rowdy as it would be at night. We expect a sleepy start to the game for UCF, and that will keep Navy in this game early which will be important. The Midshipmen can control the clock with their triple-option rushing attack and stay in this game for four quarters because of it. Navy has no quit in them. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes a 3-point loss at ECU as a 17.5-point underdog, a 3-point loss at Air Force as a 14-point dog, a 6-point loss at SMU as a 12-point dog, a 10-point loss at Cincinnati as 18.5-point dogs, and a 3-point loss to Notre Dame as 17-point dogs. If they can take all of those teams to the wire, they can certainly take UCF to the wire. Each of the last three meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. UCF won 31-21 as a 10-point favorite, won 35-24 as a 23.5-point favorite and lost outright last year 34-30 as a 15-point favorite. Navy ran for 348 yards on UCF last year and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. That will be the key to success again this season. Navy knows they have the next two weeks off before playing Army, so they will put everything into trying to win this game. UCF relies heavily on its rushing attack averaging 250 rushing yards per game. That makes this a great matchup for Navy, which only allows 87 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry. They have allowed 66 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games, which includes Notre Dame and Cincinnati. Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per rush. UCF is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored. Navy is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. The Midshipmen are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game. UCF is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play. These five trends combine for a 41-2 system backing the Midshipmen. Take Navy as our NCAAF Game of the Year.
NFL Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 13, 2022 )
Houston Texans vs. New York Giants
Bet: New York Giants -4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Giants are coming off a Week 9 bye, so they are well-rested and ready to take on the one-win Texans. New York has been one of the bigger surprises this season as they’ve started 6-2, and although some of it stems from the improvement of Daniel Jones, a lot of it comes from Saquon Barkley. Barkley has been plagued with injuries in his young NFL career, but he has played in all 8 games so far this season, which is a great sign for the Giants. The former Penn State star has a perfect matchup this weekend as the Giants have had two weeks to rest and now face a Texans defense that has allowed 1445 rushing yards this season, the most in the league. In just the last three weeks, Houston has allowed Derrick Henry to run for 219 yards with 2 touchdowns and Josh Jacobs to run for 143 yards with 3 touchdowns. New York went into the bye week on a sour note as they lost to the Seahawks 27-13, yet their defense wasn’t that bad. They missed two crucial 4th down stops, but for the most part, they pressured Geno Smith well and had good coverage in the secondary. They come out of their bye week to face a Houston offense that averages the 5th fewest points per game in the league and relies too heavily on rookie sensation Dameon Pierce. We wouldn’t be surprised to see Pierce run for 100 yards since the Giants’ defense can struggle against the run. However, it’s when Davis Mills airs it out that New York should thrive. The Giants’ secondary has allowed the 9th fewest passing yards and 2nd fewest passing completions, so against a sub-par Houston wide receiving corps, New York should have the advantage. Barkley should lead the Giants to their 7th win of the season en route to covering the -4.5 spread on Sunday.
NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 12, 2022 )
TCU vs. Texas
Bet: TCU +7/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
TCU will try and keep their amazing, undefeated season going as they travel to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns. TCU was snubbed in the first College Football Playoff rankings being the only undefeated team left out of the top six spots and the Horned Frogs would likely need to be an undefeated Big 12 champion to clinch a playoff berth. For Texas, a win would help their quest for their first nine-win regular season since 2018 and maybe a shot at a New Year’s Six Bowl with some help. If Texas wants that to happen, they will need a defensive performance equal to the one they gave against Alabama in Week 2. TCU quarterback Max Duggan leads the Big 12 in passing yards. TCU also leads the conference in rushing yards per game. They come at you for all 60 minutes and average over 70 plays per game on offense. The Longhorns will have to do exactly what they did to Alabama, which is force them to punt on six consecutive drives, including forcing four consecutive three-and-out drives. The Tide still manage over 370 yards of offense in that game. TCU is one of just five Power 5 offenses in the country that averages over 500 yards of offense per game. It will be very difficult for the Longhorns to keep the Horned Frogs off the scoreboard. Defensively, TCU will have to slow down a Texas offense that is second in the Big 12 rushing yards. Texas running back Bijan Robinson leads the conference in rushing yards and could control the pace up front. For all that Texas has done to get back on the national stage, Steve Sarkisian is not a good ATS coach. The Longhorns failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites at Oklahoma State, 7-point favorites at Texas Tech and 15.5-point favorites hosting Iowa State. Their two covers over a field goal in conference play came against the bottom feeders of the conference at Oklahoma and versus West Virginia. This is too many points as Texas has given up late leads in the second half in 2 of the last 3 weeks and we don’t trust Sarkisian. Take the points here and go with TCU as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
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Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -7/-120 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Carolina Panthers have been dealing with adversity all season. They have been ravaged by injuries and even dismissed head coach Matt Rhule. They have only covered the spread three times all season. The Bengals return home where they have covered in consecutive games and I like their chances to win this one in a blowout. Furthermore, the Panthers are starting PJ Walker at QB. Walker only connected on 52% of his pass attempts against Atlanta last week and he will struggle against a solid Bengals secondary that is limiting foes to only 210 passing yards per game. Joe Burrow is in a groove, surpassing 300 passing yards in two out of his last three performances and the Panthers rank 20th in the NFL in pass defense. While Chase isn’t playing, Higgins and Boyd are more than capable.
NCAAF Destroyer Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 5, 2022 )
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Bet: Georgia -8/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The critical handicap in this game is how the defenses elect to defend an elite set of skill-position players. The Tennessee offense is based on stretching the field, taking deep vertical shots to two of the best wideouts in the nation in Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt. Cornerback play for Georgia has been impeccable in man-to-man coverage. The ability to play man frees up other defenders for the spy or delayed blitz on Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker. Bullard has been a rock at the slot cornerback position, so Tennessee crossing patterns over the middle will be limited. The targets for the Tennessee offense will be safety Malaki Starks and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. Both players have allowed lengthy yards after the catch, while neither has logged a forced incompletion when targeted in man coverage. In particular, Starks had a disastrous afternoon against Florida as the most targeted defensive back, allowing 73 yards after the catch on four receptions. While Tennessee will face its most athletic opponent of the season, the ability to execute against the safety position will determine the winner in this game. On the other side of the ball, the Volunteers lack a single defender in PFF‘s top 200 slot coverage players. Cornerback Wesley Walker has been targeted 17 times this season, allowing 13 catches and 57 yards after the catch. Bowers and fellow tight end Darnell Washington should have no resistance to routes run within the hash marks. The Bulldogs’ Offensive Success Rate in standard and passing downs gives Smart the ability to dictate tempo. Georgia will break a couple of explosive runs, but all indications are there for Bennett to target man coverage with his best weapons. Expect Georgia to have successful multi-play drives capped off with touchdowns by the best red-zone scoring team in the nation. Look for the Georgia defense to play Tillman and Hyatt in one-on-one coverage while keeping a spy on Hooker. Because the cornerback play from Ringo, Bullard and Smith has been elite in man coverage, there’s an expectation the Bulldogs could force a few punts. A man-to-man quarters scheme downfield will limit the decision-making by Hyatt and Tillman after the snap, creating a big advantage for the home defense. The Georgia side has a correlation to the full-game and Tennessee team total under. Last season, Georgia won the battle in time of possession and first downs. Expect more of the same from the Bulldogs in Week 10. The Bulldogs are an elite team on both sides of the ball, particularly defense. Georgia ranks second in scoring defense (10.5) and fourth in total defense (262.6) despite the loss of five NFL first-round picks and eight overall draftees from last season’s unit. That is where the difference in this game can be found. The Volunteers are tied for 26th in scoring defense (21.0) and 82nd in total defense (393.6) and that will allow Georgia to beat Tennessee for the sixth straight time. Take Georgia as our NCAAF Destroyer Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Blowout Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 5, 2022 )
Texas Tech vs TCU
Bet: TCU -9/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. We don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games, North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. We don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. The Frogs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five after an ATS win and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight overall. TCU is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five conference games. The Frogs put together a pretty decent effort against West Virginia over the weekend, with 494 total yards, 9.0 yards per play and 17 first downs. TCU as a team, is averaging 44.3 points per game and allowing 27.3 as a team to their opponents. Texas Tech is scoring 33.9 points per game and allowing 29.3 to their opponents. We see Texas Christian coming away with an easy victory in this matchup at home. Take TCU -9 as our NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Invincible Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for November 5, 2022 )
Wake Forest vs NC State
Bet: NC State +4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
NC State’s defense has been paving the way for the team, as it ranks 17th-best in the FBS with 308.6 total yards allowed per contest. In terms of offense, it is accumulating 355.1 total yards per game, which ranks 97th. NC State’s defensive unit has been paving the way for the team, as it ranks 12th-best in the FBS with 17.4 points allowed per game. In terms of offense, it is putting up 26.8 points per game, which ranks 81st. In terms of passing, NC State ranks 77th in the FBS (230.0 passing yards per game) and 30th on the other side of the ball (195.3 passing yards allowed per game). NC State’s run defense has been leading the charge for the team, as it ranks 22nd-best in the FBS with 113.4 rushing yards allowed per game. In terms of offense, it is accumulating 125.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 101st. NC State’s defense has been excelling on third down, giving up a 29.4% third-down conversion rate (11th-best). Offensively, it ranks 66th in the FBS with a 39.5% third-down rate. NC State has registered 13 forced turnovers (45th in the FBS) and committed eight turnovers (19th in the FBS) this season for a +5 turnover margin that ranks 26th in the FBS. The bitter defeat from last season will be fresh in the Wolfpack’s minds, and the team will be looking to pounce on a Wake Forest team that was just humbled in Louisville. NC State will rely on their defense to carry them, the Pack have yet to let up more than 30 points in a game. MJ Morris will be making his first collegiate start, but was a revelation in NC State’s comeback win over Virginia Tech. The Wolfpack get credit for a great comeback win versus Virginia Tech, holding the Hokies to 10 first downs and a 1-of-11 rate on third-down tries. Take NC State +4.5 as our NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NCAAF Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 29, 2022 )
Missouri vs South Carolina
Bet: Missouri +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
South Carolina has won four straight games but it has been fortunate along the way with some deceiving victories. The Gamecocks started the streak with a blowout win by 36 points over Charlotte which just fired their coach and then came up with another blowout against South Carolina St. of the FCS. South Carolina then defeated Kentucky by 10 points on the road which looks impressive but the Wildcats were without starting quarterback Will Levis and last week, it was another upset against Texas A&M by six points but they were outgained by 112 yards as they jumped out to a 17-0 start thanks to returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown and then turning two Aggies turnovers into 10 more points. The special teams and defense have bolstered their scoring average as the offense is ranked No. 83 in the country overall as a strength coming into the season was supposed to be from transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma but he has underwhelmed by throwing for only 1,465 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions while getting sacked 15 times. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win. The Tigers moved to 3-4 on the season with a tougher than expected win over Vanderbilt last week as the offense sputtered but the defense once again kept them in it. They are ranked No. 22 in total defense and both units have performed well at No. 32 against the pass and No. 46 against the run and they will be facing a below average offense once again. After allowing 40 points to Kansas St. in their second game of the season, they have given up just 19.6 ppg over their last five games. Missouri is 0-3 on the road but two of those losses came at Florida and at Auburn by a combined 10 points and it outgained the Gators and Tigers by 73 and 95 total yards respectively. The worst effort over that stretch was allowing 26 points and that came against Georgia which shows the high level that the Missouri defense has been playing. The public wants nothing to do with the Tigers this week and that is just how we like it. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 23, 2022 )
Chiefs vs 49ers
Bet: Chiefs -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will gladly lay the 1 point on the road with Kansas City against the 49ers. We think the addition of McCaffrey has some serious potential in the long run, but expecting him to come out in his first game and have a huge impact is a little far fetched. We also think there's a bit of a perception here that the Chiefs are going to be flat coming off their 20-24 loss to the Bills. We would maybe be inclined to think that had Kansas City found a way to win that game, but losing should have them motivated to bounce back. Keep in mind they followed up their earlier loss this season against the Colts with a dominant showing in a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay. The other big thing here that isn't getting enough talk is the poor health of the 49ers coming into this game. San Francisco only had 4 of their projected 11 starters on the field by the end of last week's game against the Falcons. It does look like Bosa will be able to return to the lineup, but as a whole the defense is really banged up. We also like the matchup for Kansas City. The 49ers's offense is predicated on their ability to run the football. The Cheifs' run defense has looked greatly improved this year, giving up just 90 ypg. KC's defense could also be getting back two huge pieces. Willie Gay's 4-game suspension is up and all signs are rookie 1st round corner Trent McDuffie will make his anticipated return from injury.
NCAAF Game of Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 22, 2022 )
Texas vs Oklahoma State
Bet: Oklahoma State +6/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Texas Longhorns travel to Boone Pickens Stadium to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Both of these teams have one loss in the conference. And trust us when we tell you, the winner of this game will be watching the TCU/Kansas State match-up later today. The Horned Frogs and the Wildcats are both undefeated in Big 12 play. This game has serious implications here folks. In all honestly, on both of my sets of power ratings, we have Oklahoma State -1 and -4. Yes, they have covered four of the last five outings. Yes, they are playing at home. And yes, they should be in serious bounce-back mode after suffering a three-point overtime loss on the road last week against TCU. We get it guys. We understand the Longhorns have won their last three games. But going on the road to Stillwater to face an angry Cowboys team coming off their first defeat of the season, is going to be a tough task. Oklahoma State has a more potent offense without question. We know the Texas defense is a top-20 stop-unit. But we believe they will be backpedaling most of the game here. We do expect Longhorns quarterback, Quinn Ewers, who has been healthy the last few weeks and tossed seven touchdown passes, is going to have quite a bit of success in the air. But the more well-balanced, more-explosive offense of Okie State and their very loyal fan base, are going to play huge parts in this match-up. Giving them points here is a mistake. This is going to be a very close game. We like the Cowboys. Let’s not forget they have covered five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry. Oklahoma State is also 11-2-1 ATS the last 14 games played vs. conference foes, 20-4-2 ATS the last 26 games played following an ATS win, 10-3 ATS the last 13 games played following a SU loss, and 16-5-1 ATS the last 22 games played overall. Texas is 3-8 ATS the last 11 games played vs. Big 12 teams, 2-5 ATS the last seven games played following an ATS loss, 1-4 ATS the last five games played on the road, and 1-4 ATS the last five games played on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. Take the Cowboys.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 16, 2022 )
New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns
Bet: New England Patriots +2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Patriots looked to have turned the corner against the Lions. Granted, it was a coaching mismatch with the overly aggressive Dan Campbell against the seasoned Bill Belichick but the Patriots ability to get to the quarterback was encouraging. In this matchup, it will be two ground and pound offenses squaring off in which possession will be critical. The Patriots will likely keep Zappe under center for at least another week because of his ability to move around and escape pressure while Jones would be more immobile than usual with the balky ankle. One thing the Patriots have done well throughout this 20+ year run with Belichick is to take away the opponents' most important player. There is no doubt in my mind that Belichick will play a bigger front seven and pack the box to take away any big runs for Chubb. New England will gamble with one on one coverage of the Browns' receivers and force Brissett to beat them. After a strong start, Brissett looks to be returning to form in recent weeks as a capable backup but not a long term solution as a starting quarterback. In his last two games, Brissett's accuracy is down to 60% and he's thrown two interceptions with one touchdown. On the other side of the ball, Zappe has looked efficient throwing the ball and the team has taken advantage of his skill set, running more shotgun sets than before. Stevenson will get more reps this game with Harris out and he should have a field day against the Browns 28th ranked rushing defense. There is also the matter of Belichick's 8-1 career record against the Browns, including a 45-7 win last season.
NCAAF Favorite of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 15, 2022 )
Louisiana Tech vs North Texas
Bet: North Texas -6.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 27-47 )
This is a good scheduling spot for North Texas which evened its record at 3-3 with a win over Florida Atlantic two weeks ago prior to its bye week. The Mean Green are a run first offense and they have had success in nearly every game as they are averaging 216.5 ypg which is No. 15 in the country and overall, the offense is ranked No. 19 as a decent passing game backs up the ground attack. They have outgained three of their last four opponents and those four games produced the four best offensive performances of the season so they seem to be clicking going into the heart of the C-USA schedule. Defensively, North Texas has not been good but there should be no worries here against a poor offense. The Mean Green are 7-0 ATS in their last seven conference games. Louisiana Tech came through for us last week in a 10-point win over UTEP despite getting outgained by 121 total yards as the Bulldogs were +2 in turnovers that included an interception returned for a touchdown. That was the fourth time in five games they have been outgained with the lone exception coming in their games against Stephen F. Austin of the FCS. The three losses have come by 24, 28 and 28 points and all of those were on the road and the one common theme was getting gashed on the ground where they have allowed an average of 259.3 ypg on 6.3 ypc. Overall, they are No. 124 in rushing defense and No. 123 in scoring defense and Louisiana Tech should have no answers in this one. The Bulldogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
NCAAF Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 15, 2022 )
USC vs Utah
Bet: USC +3.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 42-43 )
For the life of us, we can’t figure out why a 6-0 undefeated USC Trojans team are an underdog against the 4-2 Utah Utes. You know Utah really took more of a beating than the 42-32 score against UCLA last week. Well, there is no debating that USC is a very similar football team to UCLA. Now are we to believe that the Utes coaching staff and the players are going to overcome all the issues they had with the Bruins last weekend and beat a very similar Trojans here this week? Of course not. We know that there’s an argument that USC really hasn’t been tested yet. But this is a team that shredded Stanford, Fresno State, Arizona State, and Washington State, while also playing a very tough Oregon State tightly. If you just look at Utah’s two losses: they opened up the season losing at “The Swamp” against the very overrated Florida team. And last week they got devoured at UCLA. Now we know both of those games are on the road. And they are now back at home in Salt Lake City. But we don’t think that changes things enough for them to win here, let alone to be a favored in this match up. We actually think that USC should be favored in this match. The Trojans have a very well-balanced offense. They’re equally good on the ground and in the air. Moreover, they haven’t turned the ball over at all. And that is huge guys. On the flipside, we know Utah can score points. But the Trojans rank number one in the nation in takeaways. They’ve got 12 turnovers already. The oddsmakers are looking to trap you here. Let’s not forget the ‘dog is 4-1 against the spread the last four meetings in the series. Once again, we think USC wins out right. Bit we will take the points as a gift. Take the Trojans.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 10, 2022 )
Raiders vs Chiefs
Bet: OVER 51.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 29-30 )
We've seen a string of low-scoring NFL primetime games and while that obviously has no real effect on the way tonight's affair plays out on the field, we do think it helps to keep the total in check as bettors become a little more hesitant to 'auto-bet' the 'over' in these spotlight games. We believe we're set up for a shootout as the Raiders head to Kansas City to challenge the Chiefs on Monday. The Chiefs woes in pass defense have been somewhat masked by the explosiveness of their offense this season and we expect that to continue to be the theme on Monday night. The Raiders have actually been moving the football at will but haven't been able to finish enough drives with seven's rather than three's to avoid a disappointing 1-3 start. It's worth noting that Las Vegas QB Derek Carr will be facing a weaker secondary, in our opinion, than he saw last Sunday at home against the Broncos. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 14-8 in the Raiders last 22 games as an underdog and 10-6 in their last 16 contests where the total was set at 49.5 points or higher, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 18-12 in the Chiefs last 30 games against AFC opponents and has also cashed in all four meetings in this series over the last two seasons. Take the over.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 9, 2022 )
Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans
Bet: Washington Commanders +1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The Commanders are a hot mess as they sit at 1-3. However, there are some positives that this team can take forward and some players who need to succeed for the Commanders to steal this game. Wentz must improve. Likewise, he must avoid mistakes. Wentz passed for 1,031 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 82.3 this year. Moreover, his performance has been subpar, and he must correct his issues. Gibson has rushed 53 times for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Ultimately, it is not the season he envisioned, and he cannot seem to find room to move. The Commanders rank 26th in points per game, 29th in points allowed per game, and 21st in yards per game. Curiously, they excel in other categories. Washington ranks eighth in time of possession and sixth in third-down efficiency. Their defense remains mediocre, ranking 15th in sacks and 26th in interceptions. Jamin Davis leads the Commanders with three sacks. Ultimately, the Commanders miss their top defensive player Chase Young, who is still recovering from an ACL tear. The Commanders will cover the spread if they can keep the ball out of Derrick Henry’s hands. Additionally, they must continue to convert third downs to keep the clock moving.
NCAAF Game of the Month Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 8, 2022 )
TCU vs. Kansas
Bet: TCU -6.5/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner ( 38 - 31 )
Kansas is far better than expected and worthy of all the praise behind the fine play of quarterback Jaylon Daniels, but the winning streak stops here. TCU was our favorite Big 12 win total over team and a conference championship contender, and they have lived up to the hype thus far. The team has scored 38 or more in every game this season and are averaging 8.33 yards per play, the best mark in the country. First year head coach Sonny Dykes has joined the Horned Frogs and revitalized their defense that is outpacing high powered offenses like SMU and Oklahoma. The defense has also held up their end of the bargain under first year head coach Joe Gillespie, ranking top 50 in success rate against those aforementioned elite offenses. While Daniels has been electric on offense we saw the Jayhawks struggle in their first game against an above average defense in Iowa State last week, who runs a similar 3-3-5 scheme. Kansas totaled 213 yards in the win against Iowa State and needed the Cyclones to miss three field goals to hang onto a 14-11 victory. Now, they will face their toughest test of the season and be unable to keep up. The Jayhawks defense is 80th in success rate and won't be able to keep down the Horned Frogs offense. The Frogs put on a clinic against Oklahoma, storming to 668 total yards, 8.9 yards per play, 29 first downs, zero turnovers and a 7-of-14 run on third-down tries. As for Kansas, they somehow pulled off a messy win against a pretty good Iowa State team last weekend. The Jayhawks managed just 213 total yards, 10 first downs and a 3-of-10 run on third-down tries. Even after a win, Kansas needs to regroup this week. TCU has won three consecutive meetings and lead the all-time series 25-9-4.
NCAAF Invincible Game of the Year Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 8, 2022 )
Florida State vs. NC State
Bet: NC State -3/-115 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser ( 17 - 19 )
NC State dropped to 4-1 overall and 0-1 in the ACC following its 30-20 loss to the Clemson Tigers on Saturday. North Carolina State was held to 279 yards of total offense and committed two turnovers. The Wolfpack gave up 354 yards of total offense to Clemson. NC State quarterback Devin Leary passed for 245 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Quarterback Devin Leary has passed for 1,135 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. The leading rusher is Demie Sumo-Karngbaye with 262 yards and three touchdowns, while the leading receiver is Thayer Thomas with 301 yards and two touchdown receptions. On defense, linebacker Drake Thomas is the leading tackler with 32. NC State has seven quarterback sacks and seven interceptions. Florida State and North Carolina State were both knocked from the unbeaten ranks with losses on Saturday. NC State will bounce back with a strong effort at home on Saturday and defeat Florida State. NC State has covered the number in each of the last five played at home versus Florida State. NC State is holding opponents to an average of only 15.4 points per game and allows an average of only 94.4 yards rushing per game which is one of Florida State's strengths at 203.8 yards per game. North Carolina State is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division division, 13-0 SU in their last 13 games at home, 10-0 SU as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 2016, and 17-4 ATS vs Florida State since 2001.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 2, 2022 )
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Philadelphia Eagles will look to build on their 24-8 win over the Commanders last time out to climb to 3-0 on the year. Jalen Hurts has thrown for 916 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception on 67.3% passing while also rushing for 167 yards and 3 TDs. Miles Sanders has a team-high 222 rushing yards while A.J. Green has a team-high 309 receiving yards and 20 receptions this season. DeVonta Smith has 249 receiving yards while Dallas Goedert has 168 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, T.J. Edwards has a team-high 27 total tackles including 21 solo tackles while Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox each have a team-high 3 sacks and Josh Sweat has 2.5 sacks as well. Darius Slay also has a pair of interceptions this season. We get the case to be made for the Jaguars here as these two sides haven’t been all that different offensively up to this point in the season as both have had a game where they get into the high-30s as well as a pair of games scoring into the 20s. That being said, the Eagles have been better on the defensive side of the football, and we want to see how the Jaguars fare against a team without a banged up QB like the chargers had last week and against a team not named the Colts who the Jaguars have seemingly had the number of in recent years. Philadelphia is an aggressive defensive team, and they have the ability to do damage through the air and on the ground. Hurts has developed nicely into a dual-threat quarterback and the acquisition of Brown was a big piece for the Eagles’ passing game. This game is in Philadelphia and the Eagles are cooking right now. Give the points and take the hosts in this contest, we will also get our sweet revenge against the Jaguars after we lost our play last weekend.
NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for October 1st, 2022 )
East Carolina vs South Florida
Bet: East Carolina -8.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This game has been moved from Tampa to Boca Raton due to Hurricane Ian. It will no longer be a home game for the South Florida Bulls, and we don't think it's being factored into this line enough. East Carolina is going to win this game by double-digits and cover the number for us Saturday. This is a terrible matchup for the Bulls. They are allowing 246 rushing yards per game and 6.6 yards per carry this season. They gave up 312 rushing yards to BYU, 220 to Florida and 283 to Louisville. Now they face an ECU team that is rushing for 188 yards per game and 5.4 per carry this season. This is a balanced ECU offense that also averages 276 passing yards per game. This line would be higher if the Pirates were 4-0 instead of 2-2. You could argue they should be 4-0 as they have outgained all four opponents. They missed an extra point in their 21-20 loss to NC State as 12-point underdogs. NC State is one of the best teams in the country, and they outgained the Wolfpack by 39 yards in that contest. They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 20-23 (OT) loss last week as 16-point favorites. So this is now a good 'buy low' spot on the Pirates off that upset defeat. South Florida was blasted 21-50 by BYU and 3-41 by Louisville. They also failed to cover in a 22-point win over FCS Howard as a 39.5-point favorite, one of the worst FCS teams in the country. They only outgained Howard by 6 yards in that contest. The Bulls are still getting too much respect for their 28-31 loss to Florida, which was clearly the aberration. East Carolina has owned South Florida each of the last two seasons. They won 44-24 in 2020 and 29-14 in 2021. It should be more of the same as this is the best ECU team they have had in the four years under Mike Houston, while it's clear that Jeff Scott and the Bulls are still in rebuilding mode in his third season at the helm. The Pirates are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss. The Pirates will win this game by double-digits and extend the lead in the 2nd half with their ability to run the football against this soft USF run defense. ECU will stop the run as they allow just 115 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, which is impressive when you consider they have faced Navy and NC State. There is a reason why we have offered that huge guarantee for this pick, because it`s going to be a complete blowout for East Carolina, and we are hammering this play and releasing it as our NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR Guaranteed No Limit Play.
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for September 25, 2022 )
Cincinnati Bengals vs NY Jets
Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Thing is they should be 2-0 and we just don't see them leaving any doubt in this one trying to avoid the 0-3 start. The great news for them is they play a bad Jets team. One that is getting a lot of attention for their crazy 31-30 come from behind win over the Browns last week. The Jets had no business winning that game. Cleveland could have not scored and fell down at the 1 an ran the clock out. The Browns also missed an extra point while scoring that late TD to up 31-17. They then somehow aren't in prevent and give up a 66-yard TD pass, failed to recover an onside kick and gave up another TD in a span of like 90 seconds. We think it's created a great spot to fade the Jets, who we think will be a little flat off that crazy win. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with New York is that they have trailed 24-3 and 31-17 with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th quarter in their two games. We also think it's a much easier matchup for the Cincinnati offense. Clearly the offensive line, mainly pass protection, is still a problem. Didn't help matters their first two games were against maybe the two best pass rushers in TJ Watt and Micah Parsons. Jets don't have an elite edge rusher. They got just 3 sacks in 2 games. With all that said, the Bengals could have a "B-" type of performance and still win this game by 7 or more points. We are going to get their "A" game after the 0-2 start. Give us the Bengals -6!
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play : ( Play released for September 25, 2022 )
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Bet: Los Angeles Chargers -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
This pick is predicated on Chargers to play even without quarterback Justin Herbert. The Jaguars are 0-for-6 playing in southern California, being outscored 208-98 in those games. A Chargers defense featuring impact pass-rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, along with safety Derwin James, makes this one of the toughest challenges in Trevor Lawrence's career. Until the Jags actually play well on the West Coast, we are going to reserve judgment. Plus, the Chargers have had two extra days to prepare, which means two extra days for quarterback Justin Herbert to get healthy. If Chase Daniels has to play, remember the Jags have a recent history of making career backup quarterbacks look like All-Pros (see Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor). No matter which quarterback starts for the opposition going back to Oakland's Jeff Hostetler in the Jaguars' first-ever California trip in 1996, the Jags and the Pacific time zone are a bad mix. Plus, the Bolts aren't the Colts. The Chargers kept Patrick Mahomes in check in Week 2 and should have had multiple interceptions, while Derek Carr had three interceptions against them in Week 1. The Chargers also have seven sacks in two games. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
NCAAF No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 24, 2022 )
Clemson vs. Wake Forest Loser ( 51-45 )
Bet: Clemson -7/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
A year ago, an unranked Clemson stepped on No. 10 Wake at home behind a 31-17 scoring blitz in the second half. The key to that game was Clemson's ability to marshal its forces on the defensive front seven and smother the Deacons' attempt to run the ball. Wake finished with 36 yards on the ground for a 1.2 ypc average while Clemson piled on 333 and 4 scores rushing. Uiagalelei was a crisp passing 11 of 19 for over 200 in the air and a TD. That remains the key to victory for the Tigers this time, as well. Run the ball and stop the run, plug the gaps on third down to get Hartman off the field, and open up lanes downfield for Uiagalelei to develop his long game. Wake Forest has found outright success or at least more competitive results against every other ACC team except for the Tigers, and the reason comes down to a major disadvantage at the line of scrimmage. Throughout the College Football Playoff era we have been dazzled by some of the quarterbacks and wide receivers to come through Clemson, but the most consistent unit year-to-year has been the defensive line. That defensive front has overwhelmed Wake Forest over the years, disrupting all the intricate and well-crafted aspects of the offense. That trend continues, as does the trend of double-digit wins. The defense has been suffocating. Louisiana Tech kept throwing in the 48-20 loss to the Tigers, but that didn’t matter, 14 points came late when the game was well out of reach. Star DT Bryan Bresee is back on campus after being out last week following the tragic loss of his sister, the run defense is allowing just 2.4 yards per carry, and the takeaways are flowing. No, the Tigers haven’t faced an offense like Wake Forest will bring, but the pass rush that hasn’t needed to turn it loose is about to step up, the secondary should be able to hold up, and there’s no fear of stopping the run. The Demon Deacons will give it a shot, but the ground attack won’t go anywhere. The Clemson defense is about to turn it up a few notches. As is it’s fantastic, but it hasn’t done much to get to the quarterback, but that’s about to change. The offense that found a nice balance over the last two games will pound away, it won’t turn the ball over like the Demon Deacons need, they’ve come up with seven takeaways over the last two games, and after a fun and wild first part of the game, things will settle in. The Clemson defense will settle in. Wake Forest continues to make strides as a program, but Clemson has too much talent. Even with this game being played on Wake Forest’s home turf, the Tigers should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. We got the Tigers winning this game by double-digits no problem.
NFL Guaranteed No Limit Play GAME OF THE YEAR: ( Play released for September 18, 2022 )
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Bet: San Francisco -9/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will gladly take our chances with the 49ers covering as a 8.5-point home favorite against the Seahawks in Week 2. This may seem like a big number to be laying with San Francisco after watching them lose as a 7-point favorite at Chicago in Week 1. Not to mention the Seahawks come in having just won outright at home against the Broncos as a 7-point dog in a prime time game on Monday Night Football. Not surprised at all that we have seen the betting public all over the Seahawks at this price. We just think it's a classic overreaction on both teams after Week 1. While San Francisco is going to need more out of Trey Lance if they want to be a legit Super Bowl contender, they should not have lost that game to the Bears. They were in complete control leading 10-0 in the 2nd half before everything that could go wrong did. We would have bet the house on the 49ers had you told me they were going to hold Chicago to 204 total yards and just 3.6 yards/play. Another thing that needs to be noted about that game for San Francisco is how the weather and field conditions really worked against what the 49ers wanted to offensively. We think they got the potential here to have one of the biggest turnarounds offensively from Week 1 to Week 2. A lot of that has to do with who they are playing. Seattle couldn't have been more lucky to beat the Broncos in Week 1. Denver had not one but two fumbles on runs from the 1-yard line. Somehow they held the Broncos to just 16 points, despite Denver racking up 433 total yards and averaging 6.8 yards/play. They also gave up 5.2 yards/carry vs a much weaker Broncos rushing attack than what they will see with the 49ers. Offensively Geno Smith had his moments early in that game against Denver, but that offense could do next to nothing in the 2nd half and finished the game with a mere 253 total yards. 49ers have a better defense than the Broncos. We also think that even though this is a division game, there's a chance we see a bit of a letdown from the Seahawks. Not just because they won the game, but just given how much build up there was for that game with it being the first game for Russell Wilson as an opposing QB. We got the 49ers winning this game by double-digits no problem.
NCAAF Guaranteed Bet Refund No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 17, 2022 )
UTEP vs New Mexico
Bet: New Mexico +2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
UTEP steps into this one with a 1-2 record and their lone win came last week 20-13 vs New Mexico State. The Miners were outgained in that game and beaten at the line of scrummage allowing 4.7 YPC to the Aggies while gaining just 3.5 YPC. UTEP was also +1 turnovers in the win yet NM State had the ball deep in Miner territory late with a chance to tie but fumbled on the 13 yard line. That’s an NMSU team that has a grand total of 5 wins vs FBS teams since the start of the 2018 season. Not an impressive effort by UTEP. Now they are favored on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2016 season. Definitely a role they are not used to. The Miners in fact, are just 6-11 ATS the last 17 times they’ve been a road chalk. New Mexico is 1-1 on the season and they have an extra day to prepare for this one after losing 31-14 to Boise State last Friday night. While the offense struggled vs a very good Boise defense, we were impressed with the Lobo stop unit as they held the Broncos to 318 total yards. In this match up last year NM held a 10 point lead at half @ UTEP and the Miners battled back for a 7 point win scoring their final TD with under 3:00 minutes remaining. We like New Mexico to win the line of scrimmage here which will give the advantage to the underdog. Speaking of underdog, the puppy has covered 5 of the 6 meetings in this series. UTEP has been overvalued by the oddsmakers with an 0-3 ATS record thus far losing those games by a combined 30 points to the number. They continued to be overvalued here as a road favorite. We like New Mexico to win this game at home.
NFL Guaranteed Bet Refund No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 11, 2022 )
New York Giants vs. Tennessee Titans
Bet: Giants +7/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
If you use a simple method of calculating last year’s records to determine strength of schedule for the upcoming season, there are only three teams who have an easier schedule than the Giants. The four easiest schedules belong to the four teams that make up the NFC East. Playing in the weakest division in the league allows plenty of opportunity for the Giants to improve on last season’s record. The #5 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft Kayvon Thibodeaux comes highly touted out of Oregon. He had been projected to go even higher, and the Giants were lucky to get him with their 5th pick. Playing opposite Azeez Ojulari the duo should terrorize opposing quarterbacks in the coming season. The Giants haven’t had a player with at least 12 sacks since 2014, but that is expected to change here in 2022. The Titans are the reigning AFC South champions after going 12-5 last season, but they might be due to take a step back in 2022. Six of their 12 wins last year came by three points or less, and for much of the season, it felt like they were getting it done with smoke and mirrors. They are thin at wide receiver after trading A.J. Brown to the Eagles and releasing Julio Jones. Brown led the team in receiving yards in each of the last three seasons, leaving big shoes to fill for rookie wideout Treylon Burks drafted #18 in the first round out of Arkansas. The Titans invested heavily in their offensive line when they made Taylor Lewan the highest-paid lineman in the NFL back in 2018. As is often the case, he never really lived up to the lofty expectations after securing the bag. Tennessee is projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL this season. Pro Football Focus ranked the Titans 27th in pass-blocking with a 54.3 grade, but ranked them closer to the middle of the pack in run blocking. Not one of the Titans offensive linemen ranked in the NFL’s top 10 in pass-block or run-block win rate last year. Despite winning the division and making the playoffs last season, Ryan Tannehill took a major step back. He threw for 33 TDs and just seven INTs in 2020, posting a passer rating of 106.5. He threw twice as many INTs (14) in 2021, and threw just 21 TD passes with a passer rating of 89.6. His numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since posting a passer rating of 117.5 in 2019, his first season in Tennessee. With a younger and less experienced receiving corps, an inferior offensive line and a star running back coming off an injury-riddled season, he could be in for a world of hurt in 2022. Take the points here with the Giants in Week 1.
NCAAF Guaranteed Bet Refund No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 10, 2022 )
Duke vs Northwestern
Bet: Duke +10/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Our money is on Duke to cover as 10-point road dogs against Northwestern. Both teams are off impressive wins in their season openers. The Wildcats beat Nebraska 31-28 as a double-digit dog in Dublin in Week 0, while the Blue Devils defeated Temple 30-0 as a 9-point home favorite in Week 1. To us the clear value here is with Duke at this price. For one, we think the Blue Devils have a chance to be a lot better than people expect. Coming off a 3-9 season, most had Duke pegged for last in the ACC Coastal and at or near the bottom of their overall ACC rankings. Our two biggest takeaways from Duke's win over Temple was the play of starting quarterback Riley Leonard and the immediate impact that first year head coach Mike Elko had on the defensive side of the ball. Leonard completed his first 15 attempts and ended up going 24 of 30 for 328 yards and 2 scores. He also led the team with 64 rushing yards. Defensively they held the Owls to just 179 total yards, which is quite the feat for a team that gave up 39.8 ppg and 517 ypg in 2021. As for Northwestern, not to take anything away from their upset win over Nebraska, but some of that was the Cornhuskers being the Cornhuskers. After going up 28-17 early in the 3rd quarter, Nebraska inexplicably tried an onside kick. It gave all the momentum to the Wildcats and they never gave it back. We also think you got look at how Nebraska played last week against North Dakota. They would end up winning that game 38-17, but were tied 17-17 with an FCS foe with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Duke has the goods to keep this within the number, we could see them winning this game outright. Give us the Blue Devils +10.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Preseason No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 20, 2022 )
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
Bet: Detroit Lions ML -130 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Tim Boyle and David Blough were solid for the Lions in Week 1 as they posted 252 passing yards as a duo and they will take on a Colts defense that allowed over 300 passing yards to Case Keenum and Matt Barkley last week. The Colts will have a solid defense in the regular season, but right now, their defense is nothing special. Indianapolis has four different quarterbacks on the roster, but we will not see Matt Ryan this weekend. The veteran play caller is still getting used to his new receivers and needs time with the starting receivers, so it will be up to the rest of the Colts’ quarterbacks for this matchup. None of Indianapolis’ quarterbacks were all that impressive last week as Jack Coan struggled going 1-for-5 on passing attempts. Dan Campbell wants to win no matter if it’s the preseason or the Super Bowl, so back Detroit on the moneyline ( -130 ) to get their first win of the preseason.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Preseason No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 13, 2022 )
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Bet: Cleveland Browns ML +110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We expect the Browns to come into this game with more of a chip on their shoulders. Deshaun Watson missed the entire 2021 season with Houston, and with a potential year-long suspension looming, we expect him to come out highly motivated to get the team in the endzone in one of the games opening drives. After Watson, the Browns have three veteran quarterbacks with something to prove in Jacoby Brissett, Josh Dobbs, Josh Rosen. The Jaguars Trevor Lawrence maynot play in his game, and even if he does the Jags depth chart at that position is not as strong as what Cleveland has. The expectations are higher in Cleveland this season, and after going 3-0 last preseason, Kevin Stefanski seems like a coach who like to win preseason games. We will take Cleveland as a small underdog.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Super Bowl Play: ( Play released for February 13, 2022 )
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Bet: Cincinnati +4.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
All the pressure is really on the Rams here. Los Angeles, under head coach Sean McVay got to the Super Bowl a few years ago and scored a measly 3 points against the Patriots. There is immense pressure on LA to make up for that effort here. In turn, that puts pressure on QB Matthew Stafford and he has been prone to turnovers in the past. Is this the game the turnover bug bites him again? This would not surprise us if it is. The Bengals and QB Joe Burrow come into this game in an entirely different situation. Cincinnati, of course, was not expected to be here. But the fact no one expects anything from them and any win through the post-season was just a bonus, this Bengals team is playing rather loose and relaxed. That said, and with the line move to the 4.5 range, we really like having the points here in a game in which an outright upset would not surprise us in the least. But having the points is truly a solid bonus as the Bengals have only failed to cover twice in their last ten games against teams with a winning record. Cincy has been an ATS covering machine. The Rams last ten games against teams with a winning record has seen them cover only three of the games. Value with the points. We'll take it!
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for January 23, 2022 )
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Back in Week 5, the Chiefs looked vulnerable in their 38-20 loss to Josh Allen and the Bills but a lot has changed since then. In the first meeting, star defensive tackle Chris Jones wasn’t on the field and defensive end Melvin Ingram hadn’t yet been acquired. Those two along with a healthier Frank Clark, gives the Kansas City defense a much better unit to slow down Allen in the running game. As the season has progressed, Nick Bolton has also become more involved in Steve Spagnuolo’s game plans, so also look for No. 54 to be impactful. In the Wild Card round, it took a couple of drives for Patrick Mahomes to get going but by the time halftime rolled around, he and the offense were clicking. The Bills passing defense has been stingy but now without top cornerback Tre’Davious White, the Chiefs should be able to take advantage. The Chiefs have their loyal fan base powering Arrowhead Stadium, one of the best home-field advantages in all of sports. Expect the noise to drown out offensive play calls for the Buffalo offense and make life difficult for Allen. Chiefs 38 - Bills 31.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for December 1st, 2021 )
Texas Tech vs Providence
Bet: Providence +3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Texas Tech is overvalued right now. They are 6-0 but have played one of the weakest schedules in the country. 3 of the teams they’ve faced are ranked below 300 and the best team they have played is Prairie View A&M who is ranked 239th in the nation and currently has a record of 0-8 vs tough competition. On top of that they haven’t even left the state of Texas yet this season. They’ve played 5 home games and a neutral site game vs Incarnate Word in South Padre Texas. They have not done enough to date to be favored by more than a possession on the road vs a solid Providence team. The Friars have already played 3 teams ranked inside the top 70 and won 2 of those game vs Wisconsin & Northwestern. Their only loss thus far was @ Virginia. Providence is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up and their numbers have been solid vs a very good schedule. They get to the FT line a lot (23% of their points come from the line – 24th most nationally) and they make almost 74% from the stripe. Tech has fouled a lot this season but they’ve gotten a bit lucky as their opponents are hitting only 59% from the line on the season vs the Red Raiders. That won’t happen here. We can’t even use Tech’s numbers to handicap this game because of the terrible schedule they’ve played everything is over inflated. Over the last 2 seasons Tech is 8-11 SU on the road and half of their wins (4) have come by 5 points or less. Providence has won 26 of their last 32 home games.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for November 30, 2021 )
Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns
Bet: Suns -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The 18-2 Golden St Warriors travel to Phoenix tonight to take on the 17-3 Suns. This is no ordinary meeting, as it brings together opponents from the same division with winning percentages of .850 or higher at least 20 games into the season for the FIRST time in NBA history. The Suns haven't lost since Oct 27 at home against Sacramento and will be shooting for a franchise-record-tying 17th straight win, while the Warriors enter on a seven-game winning streak to build upon their league-best start. The Warriors are no strangers to winning streaks themselves. They opened the 2016 season with 24 straight wins before losing 108-95 at Milwaukee, after the Warriors had gone 16-0 in the month of November. The Suns would match that feat by beating Golden State. Anyone doubting the greatness of Steph Curry these days? He's averaging 28.6-5.8-6.8 and is joined by SF Wiggins (19.0 & 4.6) and SG Poole (18.1). The other Golden St starters are PF Green (8.2-7.8-7.9) and center Looney (5.5 & 6.6). If Klay Thompson and James Wiseman ever get healthy and return to the court, who knows how good the Warriors could be. The Phoenix guard duo of Booker (23.9-5.1-4.7) of Paul (14.5 & 10.1 APG) has been superb, while center Ayton averages 15.4 & 11.5 (nine double-doubles in his last 11 games). Joining that trio in the starting lineup are SF Bridges (12.9 & 4.0), and PF Crowder (8.7 & 4.7). The Suns took care of business on a just completed, four-game trip to San Antonio, Cleveland, New York and Brooklyn, using better-than-50-percent shooting to dispense of the Spurs, Cavaliers and Knicks before surviving a 39-point explosion from the Nets' Kevin Durant on Saturday in an impressive 113-107 victory. The Suns are hitting on all cylinders, with the only significant injury sidelining backup big man Frank Kaminsky (10.6 & 4.6), who is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in his right knee.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 13, 2020 )
Tampa Bay Bucs vs New Orleans Saints
Bet: Saints -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016). Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 13, 2020 )
NY Jets vs Buffalo Bills
Bet: Over 39.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East. The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NFL No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 13, 2020 )
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -6/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
This is an easy standout. Philadelphia isn't getting enough love after further upgrading its defense with Javon Hargrave and Darius Slay and looking to be more explosive shape offensively around Carson Wentz. Meanwhile, Ron Rivera is trying to clean up a mess as the new coach of the Washington Football Team. The Ohio State first-round combination of Dwayne Haskins and Chase Young should show promise as the season progresses, but for now, this is a rebuilding team getting used to new offensive and defensive schemes. The short division road trip hasn't been a problem for the Eagles in the past and they are Super Bowl contenders in contrast to Washington being in play for the league's worst record. A healthy Carson Wentz will almost always beat a healthy Dwayne Haskins, which is why the Eagles are favored in this NFC East clash by almost a touchdown. This will be a game the Eagles win by double digits. We will see Doug Pederson advance to 4-0 in season openers and 5-0 in his last five games against Washington. Wentz will be looking like his 2017 form more than his 2018 self.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NCAAF No Limit Play: ( Play released for September 05, 2020 )
Arkansas St. vs Memphis
Bet: Arkansas St. +19/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We took a dog in the opener last season with Hawaii against Arizona and that turned out just fine. The Warriors win outright 45-38 as a big underdog. While we will be very pleasantly surprised if we get the outright here, we will gladly take the generous points. We put a lot of stock in the fact Arkansas State is coming into this game with the stability of a well established head coach in Blake Anderson. We all know how much turmoil everything has been with teams getting prepared for this season with all the craziness surrounding the scene. We do think the teams with stability have an edge. On the flip side we have the Memphis Tigers playing their first game with their new coach and there just has to be more questions about their being prepared to come out hitting on all cylinders right out of the gate. This is no rag tag team the Red Wolves will be throwing at the Tigers. They won 8 games last year and were a bowl team. We also love the fact they are returning nine starters on offense including the entire offensive line. This total is sky high because the odds makers know this is a team perfectly capable of putting up points on their own.We will take the team with less question marks here. We say we go with Arkansas State and the points.
Guaranteed MLB Special Release Destroyer Game of the Year: ( Play released for August 12, 2020 )
Rays vs Red Sox
Bet: Rays -1.5/+100 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Red Sox just aren’t very good in 2020 and their fortune doesn’t figure to change much Wednesday in this matchup with Blake Snell and the Rays. Tampa came into Fenway Park and won 8-2 on Tuesday, their 4th win in a row and 5th in the last 6 games. One big six-run inning was all that they needed. They’ve now scored 8 runs in B2B games to open the series and had a season-high 16 hits in Monday’s opener. These two AL East rivals are heading in opposite directions right now. Boston has lost 7 of its last 10 games, landing them in last place in the division. They are 1-3 vs. Tampa Bay this year having allowed 5+ runs in every game. Since the start of last season, they are just 8-15 vs. the Rays. Zach Godley will get the starting nod Wednesday for the Red Sox and he has a 6.14 ERA and 1.774 WHIP after two starts. The team has lost them both. Going back to last season, Godley has an 0-6 TSR L6 starts and hasn’t gone longer than four innings in any of them. Boston’s bullpen isn’t very good either. Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Winner for the Rays, has yet to record a decision in any of his three 2020 outings. None of them have seen him pitch more than three innings. Two of the three, he didn’t allow any runs. He has said he’d like to work as many as five innings tonight. He should pitch well, no matter how deep into the game he goes. Boston is hitting just .202 in games vs. southpaw starters. The Red Sox have only been a ML home dog of +125 to +175 twice in the last three seasons.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 11, 2020 )
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Bet: San Antonio Spurs -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The San Antonio Spurs are just 0.5 games back of the Portland Trail Blazers for 9th place in the West and tied with Phoenix for 10th place. Remember, the 8th seed will face the 9th seed in a play-in game to make the playoffs. This is a must-win for San Antonio with only two games remaining. The Spurs have handled this pressure well in going 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS to put themselves in this position. And they are much healthier than the Houston Rockets, who are almost certainly locked into the 4th seed in the West. The Rockets will be without both James Harden and Eric Gordon tonight, and they could be without Russell Westbrook, who is dealing with a quad injury. Danuel House is also questionable with a toe injury. They just want to be healthy going into the playoffs, so they’d be wise to play it safe. The Spurs are 38-12 ATS when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Spurs Tuesday.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 09, 2020 )
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Bet: Portland Trail Blazers -2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This is a huge game for these Blazers and they will be MAX motivated to atone for the gag job vs the Clippers yesterday morning. These 76ers will really miss Simmons in this game and we just don't see this 76ers club being able to keep up offensively with these hot shooting Blazers and their exceptional offense. We look for a huge bounceback game from Lillard tonight and an extremely focused and motivated Portland club in this spot. This is flat out a must win game for Portland tonight and we feel confident they get here vs this 76ers club missing their 2nd best player, who's also their best defender and the teams offensive play maker. We are all over Portland here and have them winning this game by 6-8 points after 4 quarters.
Guaranteed Bet Refund UFC No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 08, 2020 )
Gavin Tucker vs. Justin Jaynes
Bet: Justin Jaynes +110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The fourth fight at UFC Fight Night 174 will see Gavin Tucker take on Justin Jaynes. This will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Jaynes comes into this fight with a record of 16-4 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. He could not have asked for a better UFC debut, as he knocked out Frank Camacho 41 seconds into the fight. He has now won five fights in a row, all of them coming inside the distance (one win was due to a DQ). Because of his debut, Jaynes is averaging 23.41 significant strikes per minute. It took all of 16 strikes to finish off Camacho and he will be looking for a quick fight here as well. His opponent, Gavin Tucker, comes in 11-1 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. He won his last fight by submission against Seung woo Choi back in July of 2019. Tucker is not the best striker by any means, only landing 2.66 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 37%. The 30-year-old veteran Justin Jaynes, of 20 MMA wars has spent seven years plying his craft for the moment Saturday night presents. Overall, “Guitar Hero” has won five consecutive bouts, all by TKO or submission. The top-level training, explosive Octagon debut and chance for greater reward make Jaynes dangerous competition this weekend. Jaynes is the #77 lightweight in the world and is dropping to 145 for the first time in his career at UFC Vegas 6. Jaynes made weight and looked comfortable doing so, and we know he’s got stopping power. If you’re looking for an underdog that can score cheap points tonight, Las Vegas’s own Jaynes is the play. He’s won five fights in a row all by first round stoppage.
Guaranteed Bet Refund NBA No Limit Play: ( Play released for August 04, 2020 )
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers
Bet: Portland Trail Blazers +4/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
While few can match Houston's offensive firepower and the attack led by Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Blazers do have a legitimate star in Lillard. The All-NBA guard is averaging 28.9 points and 8.0 assists per game this season and, simply put, Lillard is capable of taking over any game at any time. Overall, the Blazers deploy a top-eight offense in the NBA, and they are No. 4 in the league in offensive turnover rate. The Portland Trailblazers are coming into this game in real need of a win to stay in the playoff hunt after falling to the Celtics in a 128-124 loss on Sunday. Damian Lillard led the way with 30 points and 16 assists, Jusuf Nurkic racked up 30 points with nine rebounds and five assists, Gary Trent Jr. added 21 points off the bench while CJ McCollum chipped in with 17 points and four assists. As a team, the Trailblazers shot 50 percent from the field and 19 of 42 from the 3-point line as they rallied all the way back from a 24-point deficit, only to fall just short as the Celtics made the big plays down the stretch to steal the game late. Looking at the betting trends, the Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. The Trailblazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record. Not only has Portland had a lot of recent success against Houston in terms of the wins column, but they have covered the spread in six of the last eight meetings. Portland is one of the few teams in the NBA that can play the fast-paced style that Houston likes to use and the Trail Blazers have the players to out-shoot the Rockets on any given night. Given the value, take the Trail Blazers and enjoy watching this high-scoring game in Orlando.
Guaranteed Bet Refund MLB No Limit Play: ( Play released for July 27, 2020 )
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bet: Rays -130 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Tampa Bay Rays look for another victory after taking two of three from the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays have scored 14 runs through three games and are coming off a 10-inning victory Sunday afternoon. The Rays have scored four or more runs in 12 of their last 15 regular season games. Brandon Lowe leads the Rays with five hits and three RBI while Willy Adames and Ji-Man Choi have combined for five hits and four RBI. Tyler Glasnow gets the ball for the Rays, and he was 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 76 strikeouts last season. This will be Glasnow’s second career game against the Braves. The Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 road games and 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. The Rays are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East, 20-6 in their last 26 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games. The Atlanta Braves are on fire offensively in their last two games, but now they have to travel after playing a Sunday night game and have an early start here. Glasnow also proved to be one of the better young pitchers in baseball last season, and he allowed just a .186 batting average. This is a more than reasonable price to back the Rays with their ace on the mound.
No Bet Refund Guaranteed plays released from March 11, 2020 until July 26, 2020
Guaranteed Bet Refund Destroyer Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 09, 2020 )
Delaware vs. Hofstra
Bet: Hofstra -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Delaware Blue Hens play the Hofstra Pride in one of the semifinals of the Colonial Athletic Association tournament on Monday at the Entertainment and Sports Arena in Washington, D.C. Delaware improved to 21-10 following its 79-67 victory on Sunday over the Charleston Cougars, which also helped us to improve to 14-0 with our Bet Refund Guaranteed Plays. Nate Darling led the Blue Hens with 25 points in the quarterfinals victory for Delaware. Nate Darling is the leading scorer for Delaware with an average of 21.1 points per game. The Hofstra Pride improved to 22-8 after defeating the Drexel Dragons on Sunday in their Colonial Athletic Association quarterfinal matchup. Eli Pemberton led the Pride in the victory with 19 points. The Pride led by just three points at the half, but outscored Drexel 36-21 after the break. Hofstra outrebounded Drexel 38-32 and outshot the Dragons 46.6% to 32.1%. Desure Buie is leading Hofstra in scoring and assists with averages of 18.5 points and 5.9 assists per game, while Isaac Cantey is the third leading scorer and leading rebounder with averages of 11.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Eli Pemberton is the second-leading scorer with an average of 17.3 points per game and one of five players for Hofstra averaging double-figures in scoring. The Pride eased to a win in the quarterfinals so you can expect them to be ready for a fight in the semifinals. They're playing their best ball right now with 10 wins in their last 11 games, including an absolute demolition of the Blue Hens. Hofstra beat them by 16 points two weeks ago. And they're only laying a handful of points here? You have to take that. Hofstra brings it on both ends and held Drexel to just 9.1 percent shooting from long range in the quarterfinals. This should be a really good game, but ultimately, the Pride have a better team. It's not really about the stars in this one because Hofstra has two of them in Pemberton and Buie. Darling is an outstanding scorer, but he doesn't have enough help. That makes Hofstra a lot more difficult to defend, because they don't rely on just one player. Kante is the difference-maker in this one. Lay the points with the Pride confidently.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 08, 2020 )
Delaware vs. Charleston
Bet: Delaware +1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Delaware Blue Hens and Charleston Cougars are set to visit Entertainment and Sports Arena in Washington, D.C. for a CAA quarterfinal clash. The Delaware Blue Hens come into this matchup with a 21-10 record, and they will be looking to continue their success after winning their recent road game against the UNC Wilmington Seahawks, 82-65. Leading the way for the Delaware Blue Hens was sophomore guard Kevin Anderson as he recorded 14 points, 8 assists, and 6 rebounds. Joining Anderson in the backcourt was junior guard Nate Darling who had a productive outing for the Blue Hens with 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. This game will feature two of the top scorers in the country as Grant Riller is averaging 21.7 PPG for Charleston while Nate Darling is sitting at 21.1 PPG for Delaware, but the Blue Hens are the better overall team in a clash of high scoring teams. The Blue Hens are one of the top-scoring teams in the CAA as they are averaging 73.9 PPG, and they have some scoring outside of Darling as Ryan Allen, Justyn Mutts, and Kevin Anderson are all contributing over 11 PPG. The Blue Hens like to do the majority of their work inside the three-point line as they rank 9th in the country in two-point percentage (56%), and they should find success against a Charleston defense that is average at defending the paint. This will be a high scoring affair, but Delaware will have the most weapons on the court which is the biggest difference here. Final Score Prediction, Delaware Blue Hens gets their revange and cover ATS 75-70.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 07, 2020 )
Seton Hall vs Creighton
Bet: Creighton -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The #11 Creighton Bluejays can win a share of the Big East regular-season title with a victory in this game. The Bluejays are one game back of Seton Hall who has already clinched their share of the Big East title. Creighton has won six out of their last seven games overall and covered the 13 points spread in a 91-76 home win over Georgetown on Wednesday night. The Bluejays are projected as a #4 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology. Ty-Shon Alexander continues to shine and has collected at least 18 points in five out of his last six contests. The junior guard is a huge threat from beyond the arc where he features a 40% clip and he has compiled an average of 17 PPG. Marcus Zegarowski scored 20 points in Tuesday’s winning effort. The sophomore guard has now reached 20 points in two out of his last three games and is averaging 15.9 PPG and 5 APG. Mitch Ballock has only scored double-digits in one out of his last four clashes. The junior guard has registered an average of 12 PPG. This is a huge game for both teams competing for the #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Creighton is very tough to beat on their home floor where they are sporting a dazzling 16-1 record, so we will gladly take them with this smaller spread. The Bluejays are winning games by large margins. Five out of their last six wins have occurred by at least eight points. Furthermore, Seton Hall hasn’t been quite as effective as of late. They are only 3-3 in their last six games overall and already lost 87-82 to Creighton on their home floor. The Pirates defense has been exploited recently as they have surrendered 79 points in back-to-back games and Creighton features several sharpshooters from three-point territory. We have a lot of respect for Seton Hall, but we can't go against Creighton here at home. The Blue Jays have won their last five home games by 11 points or more, covering the spread by an average of over 9-points per game during the span. The Blue Jays are a finely tuned athletic machine offensively, and we don't see the Pirates going on the road and outscoring them with so much on the line. In March games, Creighton is a perfect 16-0 ATS at home since 2010.
No Bet Refund Guaranteed plays released for March 06, 2020
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 05, 2020 )
Houston vs Connecticut
Bet: Connecticut +2/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The UConn Huskies are much better than their 17-12 record would indicate. Each of their last 7 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. They are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games and playing well enough to knock off Houston. The Huskies want to avenge their 59-63 road loss at Houston on January 23rd in which they blew a 5-point halftime lead. If they can play with them on the road, they can certainly play with them at home where they are 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS this season. Each of Houston’s last 4 losses came on the road to Tulsa, Cincinnati, SMU and Memphis. UConn is 7-1 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days this year. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as road favorites. The Huskies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as home underdogs, while Houston is 0-6 ATS last 2 seasons in road games off a game with a combined score of 125 or less. Cougars are also 0-5 ATS last 5 as a road favorite. No way we are passing up on UConn as a home dog. Huskies are 13-3 at home this season. They are 6-2 at home in AAC play, with both losses coming in OT.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 04, 2020 )
Minnesota vs Indiana
Bet: Indiana -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The Golden Gophers have played well defensively, giving up 66.1 points per game. They haven’t done as well away from home, giving up 68.7 points per game and will struggle to slow down the Hoosiers, who have played well offensively, averaging 77.5 points per game at home. The Hoosiers have also done a good job on the defensive end, giving up 67 points per game. They are giving up 66.1 points per game at home and will keep the Golden Gophers, who are averaging 66.4 points per game, in check. The Hoosiers have done a better rebounding job at home, averaging 38.5 rebounds per game, while the Golden Gophers average 37.8 rebounds per game. They are grabbing 1.8 more offensive rebounds per game and 2.5 more steals per game, which will lead to more scoring opportunities for the team. The last meeting between these two up in Minneapolis the Hoosiers ended up winning 68-56. The Hoosiers outscored the Gophers in every category. FG% 44.4 to 34.4, 3pt% 28.6 to 16.0, turnovers 10-12, and rebounds 39-38. Minnesota led the game pretty much all game. Trayce Jackson-Davis took this game into his own hands for Indiana. He had 27 points and 16 rebounds. Devonte Green was the only other Hoosier in double digits with 11. With the Hoosiers winning six of the last eight meetings between the two teams, Indiana is the best bet.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 3, 2020 )
Rutgers vs. Maryland
Bet: Rutgers -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The No. 9 ranked Maryland Terrapins visit Rutgers Athletic Center in Piscataway, New Jersey on Tuesday for a Big Ten showdown with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The Maryland Terrapins fell to 23-6 overall and 13-5 in the Big Ten following their 78-66 loss to the Michigan State Spartans. Despite the loss, Maryland remains in first place in the Big Ten by one game over three teams - Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin. Anthony Cowan Jr. is the leader in scoring and assists for Maryland with averages of 16.1 points and 4.7 assists per game. Jalen Smith is the second leading scorer and leading rebounder for Maryland with averages of 15.3 points in 10.5 rebounds per game. Maryland has three players averaging double-figures in scoring. Rutgers dropped to 18-11 overall and 9-9 in the Big Ten following is 65-64 loss last Wednesday to the Penn State Nittany Lions in a game that Rutgers trailed at one point by 21 before pulling out a one-point victory. Rutgers has lost each of its last three and four of its last five and sits on the proverbial “bubble” as the Big Ten Conference tournament and March Madness approach. Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer for Rutgers with an average of 12.1 points per game, while Geo Baker is the second-leading scorer and leader in assists with averages of 10.6 points and 3.5 assists per game. Myles Johnson is the leading rebounder with an average of 8.0 per game. Rutgers has just two players averaging double figures in scoring. Maryland is trying to protect its slim one-game lead over three other teams in the Big Ten. The Terrapins must win each of their final two games of the regular season to ensure they win the conference title. However, the Terrapins have failed to cover five of their last six overall and will be playing on the road against Rutgers, who is on the proverbial “bubble” and needs to win each of its final two games of the regular season. Final Score Prediction,Rutgers win and covers ATS 76-64.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 2, 2020 )
Texas Tech vs Baylor
Bet: Texas Tech +7.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Let us start with a situational power-query betting system that has earned an outstanding record and has a simple to understand combination of parameters. This system has posted a 48-19-5 ATS record for 72% winners and requires us to bet on road teams as an underdog or pick (Red Raiders in this matchup)revenging a straight up loss to the current opponent as a home favorite and are off two consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals. The Red Raiders are coming off back-to-back dominating losses. They first lost 65-51 to No.1 Kansas and failed to cover as 1.5 point favorites. They shot a season-low 33% in that game. In their most recent game they lost at home to the Texas Longhorns 68-58 and failed to cover the spread as 11.5-point favorites. So, this is an exemplary contrarian play to be sure. Here si the good news. The Red Raiders are a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after the 15th game of the regular season when facing excellent teams that are outscoring their opponents by at least 8 points-per-game in games played over last 2 seasons. From the predictive side of things, the summary projections show a final score result within a range of Baylor winning by four points to Texas Tech winning by four points. Consider making a combination wager on this dog bet using 80% of your normal 7-Star wager amount and then add the remaining 20% using the money line. Texas Tech is 53-11 SU for 83% wins and 33-15 ATS for 69% winning bets in home games where they have attempted at least 55 shot attempts, made at least 24 field goals, and had 12 or fewer turnovers in games played since 2006.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for March 1, 2020 )
Colorado vs Stanford
Bet: Stanford -1/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We’ll accept the current spread, but would prefer the money line. Our choice Stanford (21-8) comes in to this encounter with Colorado out on the left coast. Colorado who is 21-8 has really been flagged their last two games SU. Against the Golden Bears in the last encounter the offense sputtered with inefficiencies. The Cardinal has put together a solid record, however they too flash with inconsistencies. Recently they have won last three SU & ATS. Critical is the defense which has jammed opponents to 60 points per game at home this season. If guard Willis does not play for the Buffs, feel the Cardinal has a solid edge later today. Colorado is 14-40 ATS on the road, and despite their spread success against Stanford, we’ll BACK the Cardinal to cash.
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 29, 2020 )
Arizona vs UCLA
Bet: UCLA moneyline/+125 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
UCLA is in a situation that's the complete opposite of Arizona's. They started the year off extremely slowly, but have since caught fire and are closing strong. They changed coaches and cultures this offseason by bringing in Mick Cronin from Cincinnati, and while they struggled at first, the move is finally starting to pay off. They had some embarrassing non-conference efforts, like when they lost to Hofstra and Cal State Fullerton, but something magical happened when PAC 12 play started. They've now won six games in a row and 10 of their past 12 to move into a tie for first place in the conference. They nailed a three with one second left in their most recent game for a huge victory over a very good Arizona State team. Lunardi has them among his 'first four out,' so every game is of massive importance from here on out. They have a chance to play themselves into the tournament, and so far they appear up to the task. This is a pretty young team that plays a ton of freshmen and sophomores, so it's not surprising that they are peaking late in the year. They draw a raucous home crowd, and have one of the best home-court advantages in the conference. They just beat Arizona by 13 a couple of weeks ago, showing that they matchup pretty well against the Wildcats. Their defense was lights out in that one, holding Arizona to just 25 percent shooting from the floor. There is no way you can fade UCLA right now. They are absolutely on fire at the moment, and this is their biggest game yet. They just beat Arizona on the road by 13 points, so getting them as a home underdog here is great value. Not only are they going to cover this spread, they're going to win this game outright. Arizona has been underwhelming in conference play, and they looked terrible in their most recent game. UCLA has won 10 of 12, and with everything on the line here we are expecting their best. Roll with the Bruins to win outright.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 28, 2020 )
Davidson vs Dayton
Bet: Dayton -10.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We will take our chances here with the Flyers and lay the big number. This line has dropped some from the opening mark of 12. That could be viewed as a sign to take Davidson. We just think the Wildcats are a team that people thought was going to be a lot better than they are and because they have won 4 of 5 we are seeing some interest spark back up as a double-digit dog. There's just no way we would bet against Dayton in this spot. Flyers have won 17 straight overall and are 15-0 in A-10 play. They have made it pretty clear they want to go undefeated and there's talks now of them maybe getting a No. 1 seed. We think this team will be extremely motivated to show up and show out tonight. Game will be played on ESPN2 and with a weak Friday card they know a lot of eyes will be on this game. Davidson has not been a good road team. They are a mere 4-12 ATS away from home. They have just one cover in their last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Dayton is 15-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 19.5 ppg (82.0 -62.5), and shoot 53% while allowing just 41%. So far they have won 6 of their 7 home conference games by double-digits. Give us the Flyers -10.5!
Guaranteed Bet Refund Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 27, 2020 )
Marshall vs. UAB
Bet: UAB -1.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
These two squads have already met once this season. The Blazers won 61-50. The Blazers played a nearly perfect game. They had a fantastic free throw rate of 0.417 and an absurd offensive rebounding percentage of 38.9. The Thundering Herd recorded marks of 0.100 and 17.1, respectively, for those same stats. Makhtar Gueye was a top performer in the victory, with 15 points and seven rebounds. The offensive glass should be a major edge for UAB in this meeting. The Blazers are among the country’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking 49th in offensive rebounding percentage at 32.6 percent. Meanwhile, Marshall ranks 333rd in the country at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 67.4 percent. At home this season UAB has a 9-6 record and although they aren’t an elite offensive team, there defense has stepped up when needed. At home this season UAB is averaging 65.5 points per game while the defense is giving up 64.2 points. UAB is led by guards Tavin Lovan and Jalen Benjamin who are both averaging 12.7 points per game. UAB is a strong defensive team and they are going to make life tough on the Thundering Herd in this game. Marshall is 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15 meetings against UAB. UAB won the first meeting at home and they'll win again. Why? Because they have one of the most dominant rebounding teams in the nation. In the first meeting, they outrebounded Marshall by 21 and held them to 4 of 26 from beyond the arc. Scott-Grayson, a 6-5 guard, had 11 rebounds. They also have two 6-10 players in Tamell Pearson and Makhtar Gueye, who make it difficult to score in the paint. Don’t be surprised if Marshall finishes with only 50 points again.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 25, 2020 )
Alabama vs. Mississippi St
Bet: Mississippi St -3/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We like Mississippi State a lot here. Both of these teams need this feeling like blood, but Alabama has been struggling recently while Mississippi State plays really well at home. The Bulldogs have been on fire offensively recently, and they are going to take advantage of this weak Alabama defense in front of what should be a solid crowd. Alabama has only won three games in the past month, and two of them were against a couple of the conference's worst teams. Alabama likes to play at a blistering fast pace, which doesn't translate as well on the road. Alabama hasn't won two straight games since January when they won four straight, but three of those were at home and the road win was at Vanderbilt. Mississippi State hasn't lost two straight since that stretch against Auburn/Bama/LSU back in early January. Last year they lost at Alabama, and came back home to beat them by 19 and we see a similar situation here. Mississippi State will win this one easily.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 22, 2020 )
North Carolina vs Louisville
Bet: Louisville -9/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Louisville shook off the cobwebs following back-to-back losses and absolutely throttled Syracuse last time out and we look for it to build off of that positive momentum here. North Carolina is simply playing out the string at this point, on the heels of six straight losses. Note that the Cardinals have gone 26-14 ATS, outscoring the opposition by nearly 10 points per game, after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. North Carolina is just 1-7 ATS when facing teams that allow 64 points or less per game this season, outscored by over seven points per contest in that situation. Take Louisville.
Guaranteed Game of the Year CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 19, 2020 )
Duke vs NC State
Bet: NC State +8/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK as our first CBB Game of the Year. NC State is playing its first home game in 18 days on Wednesday when it hosts sixth-ranked Duke. The Wolfpack have played three straight road games where they went 2-1 that included a loss at Boston College in their last one on Sunday to move back to .500 at 7-7 in the ACC. They are 11-3 at home and will look to snap a two-game slide at home. This will mark the 11th time NC State has faced a top-10 team under head coach Kevin Keatts. The Wolfpack are 4-6 against top 10 teams in the Keatts era, including a 2-2 mark against Top-10 foes in PNC Arena. Duke is 12-2 in the ACC which is good for first place by a half-game over Louisville entering Tuesday. The Blue Devils have won seven straight games since a loss to the Cardinals. They snapped a three-game non-cover skid with a 34-point home win over Notre Dame. Take NC State to ver the game and for the upset.
Guaranteed Bet Refund CBB No Limit Play: ( Play released for February 18, 2020 )
Dayton vs VCU
Bet: Dayton -2.5/-110 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The timing for this week’s rematch couldn’t be worse for VCU. The Rams are reeling right now. VCU has fallen sixth place in the A10 standings after dropping three of its last four games. The Rams enter with a 7-5 record in conference play and the team was forced to play its last game without starting point guard Marcus Evans, who sat with a knee injury. Evans surpassed the 2,000 point milestone earlier this season and the offense struggled without him in the lineup. Meanwhile, Dayton has cruised through the A10 schedule to enter with an undefeated 12-0 conference record. Dayton cruised to a 71-63 victory on the road against Massachusetts 71-63 on Saturday night to remain perfect in A10 play. Obi Toppin led the way with 19 points while Jalen Crutcher finished with 15 points and five assists for the Flyers, who shot 53 percent from the field and led by as many as 16 points on the night. Toppin gives the Flyers a major advantage on the inside in this game. Crutcher and Rodney Chatman are both good ball-handlers, so they should be able to take care of the basketball against the Rams` pressure defense. Meanwhile, the Rams struggled in that department in their last game against Richmond without Evans on the floor. They turned the ball over 22.2 percent of the time in that game and shot just 34.2 percent fro the field. Dayton is 23-2 on the season and 12-0 in conference play. They beat VCU 79-65 at home in their first meeting. VCU is 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall with double-digit road losses to Rhode Island and Richmond as well as an upset home loss to George Mason as 14.5-point favorites. We just don’t see how they’re supposed to compete with Dayton tonight given those recent results. VCU is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Rams are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Play released for July 28, 2018
Phillies vs Reds
Bet: Phillies -120 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
Ever been in a situation where you know your place of employment doesn't want you anymore, yet you still have to work one more day? It's a tough spot mentally and it's what Matt Harvey likely is dealing with today. The Reds are expected to deal Harvey before his next start. So you have to wonder about Harvey's state of mind. Maybe he reacts well, maybe he doesn't. But what we do know is Harvey hasn't been good in three years robbed of his great potential by serious elbow and shoulder injuries. Harvey has a 5.21 ERA this season. It was 6.70 last year. Clearly he's not the same pitcher. The Phillies are swinging hot bats. If you discount a two-run game against the Padres six days ago, they are averaging 6.7 runs in their last eight games. They have fortified their lineup trading for Asdrubal Cabrera, who already has 18 homers this year. The Reds' bullpen is down setup man Amir Garrett, who left yesterday's Reds' win with an Achilles' strain. Cincinnati closer Raisel Iglesias threw 25 pitches Friday night. So he carries a fatigue rating. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is pitching his best ball with a 2.38 ERA in his last six starts. Opponents are batting just .134 against him during this time frame. The Phillies have a deep and underrated bullpen. They also have shown an excellent ability to bounce back winning 36 of the last 53 times following a loss.
Play released for July 25, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play:
Astros vs Rockies
Bet: Astros -118 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The Houston Astros are showing great value as small road favorites over the Colorado Rockies tonight. They should be bigger favorites based on the fact that they have a huge advantage on the mound in this one. Charlie Morton has found his groove in Houston. He is 11-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 19 starts this season with 146 Kâ??s in 112 1/3 innings. The Astros have done an amazing job of developing their starters as Iâ??d put their rotation up against any in baseball. Jon Gray is 8-7 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in 18 starts for the Rockies this year. We are surprised he is getting as much respect from oddsmakers as he is given those poor numbers in a large sample size this year. Colorado is 1-12 in its last 13 home games vs. AL teams that allow 3.9 or fewer runs per game. Houston is 34-13 as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season, winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot. The Astros are 7-0 in the last seven meetings. Bet the Astros Wednesday.
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Play released for July 24, 2018
Braves vs Marlins
Bet: Marlins +117 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We like the value here with the Marlins as a home dog against the Braves in Tuesday`s MLB action. Miami was embarrassed in the series opener 12-1 on Monday and should come out with a chip on their shoulder after that lackluster effort. Atlanta has struggled in this spot of late. The Braves are just 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series, 1-4 in their last 5 after a win and 1-5 in their last 6 after scoring 5+ runs. Miami on the other hand is 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less. The Marlins will send out Wei-Yin Chen, who is just 2-7 with a 5.75 ERA in 15 starts. However, Chen has been a completely different pitcher at home, where he owns a 1.83 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 7 starts. Miami has gone 12-5 in his last 17 home starts and 20-7 in his last 27 home starts vs a above-average team that`s won between 54% and 62% of their games. Atlanta will counter with Julio Teheran, who last started on July 15. Teheran has been hit or miss all season and has really struggled in day games, where he owns a 5.12 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 8 starts. There`s also a great system in play in favor of the Marlins. Home underdogs who are being outscored by 1 or more runs/game are 40-23 (63.5%) over the last 5 seasons when facing a team that is starting a pitcher that is working on 7 or more days of rest. Take Miami!
Play released for July 12, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Yankees vs Indians
Bet: Yankees -111 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The New York Yankees have gone a ridiculous 17-2 in Luis Severino`s 19 starts this season. And it`s rare that you get to back him at this kind of price. Severino is 14-2 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 143 strikeouts in 123 1/3 innings. He has gone 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in five previous starts against the Indians as well. Corey Kluber is faltering of late at 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts. He is also 0-1 with a 12.80 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, yielding 9 earned runs and four home runs in 6 1/3 innings.
Play released for July 2nd, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Red Sox vs Nationals
Bet: Boston +160 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
The oddsmakers have Boston way, way underrated here in the opener of a three-game series at Washington, and we think it`s well worth to take a stab on the visitors. Washington right-hander Max Scherzer (10-4, 2.04 ERA) is having an outstanding year and is a top Cy Young Award contender, but note that he`s 4-4 with a 6.04 ERA in 10 career starts against the Red Sox. Rick Porcello (9-3, 3.60 ERA) will take the ball for the Red Sox and he`s 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his lone start against Washington, an eight-inning effort in April of 2015. He`s cooled off since going 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his first seven turns of the season but is still 5-1 behind a 3.42 ERA in nine starts on the road. The Nationals have been shut out in three of Scherzer`s last four starts. The`re 1-7 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series and 2-7 in their last 9 interleague games. Red Sox are 11-1 in Porcello`s last 12 interleague starts and 41-12 in their last 53 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
Play released for July 2nd, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Bet: Arizona-143 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the St.Louis Cardinals will continue a three game series Tuesday evening from Chase Field in Phoenix. The Cardinals will give the start to 22-year old right-hander Jack Flaherty, and 34-year old right-hander Zack Greinke will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks won two of three games in St. Louis early in the season. Zack Greinke will get the starting nod for the 18th time of the season, aiming for his fourth straight win. Greinke was tremendous in his previous start, tossing seven shutout innings against the Marlins, leading to the win to lift his record to 8-5. The D-Backs ace has now hurled 13 consecutive scoreless innings, improving his ERA on the season to 3.41 to go with a 1.11 WHIP in 103 innings pitched. Overall Greinke owns terrific numbers against the Cardinals, boasting a 12-5 record with a 3.42 ERA in 115.2 total innings. Jack Flaherty will make his 12th start of the season, looking to get back into the win column. Flaherty didn`t have his best stuff last time out, conceding four runs including two home runs in four innings against the Indians, resulting in a loss to even his record to 3-3. We are taking the Diamondbacks in this contest. Zack Greinke is in a groove on the mound, firing 13 consecutive shutout innings, and he features a 12-5 record with a solid 3.42 career ERA against St. Louis. Furthermore, the Cardinals have lost four straight games heading into Monday`s action, and they have surrendered a combined 27 runs in that span. Greinke has won five out of his last six starts, and we expect another win in this one.
Play released for July 1st, 2018
Guaranteed MLB No Limit Play: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Bet: Milwaukee -135 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Loser
Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the fifth time of the season, looking to extend his shutout streak. Peralta was dominant in his previous performance, firing seven shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Royals, leading to the win to lift his record to 3-0. The rookie right-hander is off to a remarkable start to his Major League career, sporting a 1.59 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP in 22.2 innings pitched, plus he has tossed 13 consecutive scoreless innings. Peralta has already accumulated 35 strikeouts through his four starts. He posted a solid 2.75 ERA in Triple-A this season. Christian Yelich is having no problem reaching base against the Reds this season, recording 6 hits in 16 at bats to go with a .474 on base percentage. The 26-year old center fielder is having a strong season in his first year as a member of the Brewers, sporting a .289 average with 11 home runs and 34 RBI’s. Yelich has driven in three runs in his last four games. The Brewers are scoring an average of 4.41 runs per game, ranking them 16th in the Majors. The Milwaukee pitching staff is their greatest strength as a team, registering a 3.44 team ERA, good for fourth in the Major Leagues. Matt Harvey will make his 18th appearance and 10th start as a member of the Reds. Harvey battled the Brewers early in the season and conceded four runs in five innings, and he has now allowed 10 runs to go with an 0-2 record in 16 career innings against Milwaukee. Christian Yelich is 5 for 21 with three RBI`s against Harvey, while Travis Shaw is 2 for 6, and Lorenzo Cain is 2 for 4. We are going with the Brewers in this contest. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is off to an incredible start to his Major League career, holding the opposition to only four runs in 22.2 innings, and he has fired 13 consecutive shutout innings. Furthermore, Matt Harvey conceded four runs in five innings against the Brewers earlier this season, and Milwaukee has scored 10 runs in 16 innings against him. Milwaukee`s pitching continues to shine, allowing three or fewer runs in seven out of their last ten games, plus they have won seven of eight games against the Reds this season. The Milwaukee Brewers are 7-0 in their last 7 games against the Reds heading into Saturday`s action, 4-0 in Peralta`s last 4 starts and 17-6 in their last 23 road games against a team with a losing record. The Cincinnati Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 home games against the Brewers and 16-36 in their last 52 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Plays released for Sunday 29th, 2017
Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Play Game of the Year: Cowboys vs Redskins
Bet: Cowboys -2 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
Playing on a short week after being on the Monday night stage, as the Redskins were six days ago, is a tough spot. But things have become much tougher for Washington given its cluster injury problem in the offensive line and defense. How bad is it for the Redskins? Washington couldn't practice in pads once this past week. Just not enough bodies. Dallas is a top-five NFC team. The Redskins are going to have to defeat the Cowboys minus possibly four starting offensive linemen. Already ruled out is left tackle Trent Williams, the Redskins' best offensive lineman, and center Spencer Long. Right guard Brandon Scheff is doubtful and right tackle Morgan Morse is questionable. The Cowboys have 21 sacks. Only five teams have more sacks. Demarcus Lawrence is second in the NFL in sacks with 9 1/2. David Irving has three sacks in two games since coming back from a four-game suspension. The Redskins need to run the ball - or at least keep the threat of a run game - in order to slow down Dallas' pass rush. Washington, though, is just a mediocre running team and that was with a healthy offensive line. They don't have a star running back. It's hard not to believe the Cowboys' well-coached defense isn't going to control the line of scrimmage. Washington also has key defensive players injured. Jonathan Allen, the team's best run-stopper, is out. So is linebacker Mason Foster. Ezekiel Elliott is off his best game of the season rushing for 174 yards and catching a 72-yard screen pass to give him three touchdowsn against the 49ers last Sunday. Elliott is running wild now knowing a six-game suspension may come at any time. We doubt the Redskins can effectively contain Elliott. This is going to make Dak Prescott deadly in play-action. The Redskins' secondary is beat-up. Cornerbacks Josh Norman and Bashuad Breeland have been battling injuries. They are going to have a tough time keeping up with Dez Bryant.
Plays released for Saturday 21st, 2017
Guaranteed NCAAF No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year: Southern Cal vs. Notre Dame
Bet: Notre Dame -3.5/-105 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
This should be a dynamite game and a lot different than last year`s blowout win for the Trojans. Both of these teams are still looking to make it to the playoffs this year and that makes the game even more intense. The Trojans have a great offense, but it really hasn`t shown itself all that much this year and things won`t change against an Irish defense that has really been playing well of late and has had a week off to prepare. The defense for the Trojans has been solid this year, but they have also struggled at times and the Irish have an offense that can take advantage of that, especially with Brandon Wimbush being back on the field. This should be a great game, but in the end, we see the Irish winning by at least 7 points as they are rested and looking for revenge from last year`s loss, especially with the favorite being 5-0 ATS the last five in this series.
Plays released for Saturday 14th, 2017
Guaranteed No Limit Play: TCU vs. Kansas St
Bet: TCU Horned Frogs -6/-130 ( sportsbook: Wynn LV ) Winner
We are going with TCU in this contest. TCU continues to show they are the real deal, defeating Oklahoma State two weeks ago followed by a win over 23rd ranked West Virginia last week. The Wildcats rely on their potent running game, however the Horned Frogs feature a stifling rush defense that is allowing an average of only 104 yards per game, ranking them 15th in the Country, so we expect the Wildcats to have a tough time moving the ball. Furthermore, the TCU offense is well-balanced with a strong QB and a dynamic running back which will be tough for the Wildcats to handle.
High Roller Plays Results
09/03/2017 NCAAF No Limit Play - West Virginia vs Virginia Tech -4/-120 Winner
09/02/2017 NCAAF No Limit Play - Arkansas State vs Nebraska Over 48 Winner
05/06/2017 MLB No Limit Play - White Sox vs Baltimore -1.5/-110 Loser
05/02/2017 MLB No Limit Play - Toronto vs NY Yankees -1.5/+100 Winner
04/24/2017 MLB No Limit Play - San Diego vs Arizona -160 Winner
04/19/2017 NBA No Limit Play - Atlanta vs Washington -5 Winner
04/15/2017 NBA No Limit Play - Indiana +9 vs Cleveland Winner
04/11/2017 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dogers vs Chicago Cubs -150 Winner
11/08/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Carolina vs New Jersey -145 Winner
11/07/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Indiana vs Charlotte -3 Winner
11/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - New Orleans -3 vs San Francisco Winner
11/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - 6.0 points teaser Dallas -1/Green Bay -1 Loser
11/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Philadelphia +3 vs. NY Giants Loser
11/03/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Atlanta -3 vs Tampa Bay Winner
10/30/2016 NFL No Limit Play - New England -6/-125 vs. Buffalo Winner
10/30/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Oakland -1 vs Tampa Bay Winner
10/29/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - 7.0 points teaser Wisconsin -2 / Arizona State vs Oregon over 68.5 Winner
10/27/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Jacksonville vs. Tennessee -3 Winner
10/24/2016 NFL No Limit Play - 7.0 points teaser Denver -1/Over 33 Winner
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Raiders +2 vs. Jaguars Winner
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Minnesota -2.5 vs Philadelphia Loser
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Patriots -7 vs. Steelers Winner
10/23/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Bills -2.5 vs. Dolphins Loser
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play Teaser - Buffalo -1.5 / New England -1 Winner
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Panthers vs Saints +2.5 Winner
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Ravens vs. Giants Winner
10/16/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Eagles -3 vs Redskins Loser
10/16/2016 NFL&NCAAF Teaser No Limit Play - Alabama -3 / New England -1 Winner
10/09/2016 NFL No Limit Play Game of the Month - New England -3.5/Green Bay -0.5 ( 7.0 points teaser ) Winner
10/08/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Game of the Year - Auburn -2.5 vs Mississippi State Winner
10/08/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Tennessee vs Texas A&M Winner
10/06/2016 NFL No Limit Play - Arizona -3/-125 vs San Francisco Winner
10/01/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Wisconsin +10.5 vs Michigan Winner
09/24/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play Stanford -3 vs UCLA Winner
09/24/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play North Texas vs. Rice -7 Loser
09/10/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - NC State vs East Carolina +4.5 Winner
09/10/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - South Carolina vs Mississippi State -6 Winner
09/10/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - Wake Forever vs Duke -5 Loser
09/05/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - Mississippi vs Florida State -6 Winner
09/02/2016 NCAAF No Limit Play - 7.0 points Teaser Alabama -4.5/Stanford -6 Winner
09/01/2016 NFL Preseason No Limit Play - Buffalo vs Detroit -3 Winner
08/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play Bounce Back Game of the Year - Seattle vs Texas -157 Winner
08/29/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dodgers -120 vs Colorado Loser
08/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Chicago Cubs -154 vs LA Dodgers Loser
08/25/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Detroit -115 vs Minnesota Winner
08/22/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cleveland -160 vs Oakland Winner
08/19/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Washington -143 vs Atlanta Winner
08/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Kansas +120 vs Detroit Winner
08/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Milwaukee vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-125 Winner
08/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Toronto -145 vs NY Yankees Winner
08/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets vs Arizona +1.5 Loser
08/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-110 Loser
08/12/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Atlanta vs Washington -1.5 Loser
08/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - White Sox vs Kansas -152 Winner
08/10/2016 MLB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Arizona vs NY Mets -117 Loser
08/06/2016 MLB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Miami vs Colorado -110 Winner
08/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Saint Louis -136 vs Cincinnati Winner
08/02/2016 MLB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Washington -145 vs Arizona Winner
08/01/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Washington -1.5/-120 vs Arizona Winner
07/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Arizona vs LA Dodgers -1.5/+100 Loser
07/27/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -127 vs NY Mets Winner
07/26/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs Baltimore -188 Loser
07/23/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets vs Miami -145 Winner
07/20/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Francisco vs Boston -146 Winner
07/17/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Baltimore -134 vs Tampa Bay Winner
07/10/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -145 vs Milwaukee Winner
07/04/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs San Francisco -126 Winner
07/02/2016 UEFA EURO FRANCE 2016 - Italy +150 vs Germany Loser
06/25/2016 UEFA EURO FRANCE 2016 - Northern Ireland vs Wales +105 Winner
06/22/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs NY Yankees -147 Winner
06/19/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Cleveland +5 vs Golden State Winner
06/16/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Golden State vs Cleveland -2 Winner
06/16/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Yankees -130 vs Minnesota Winner
06/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -120 vs Washington Winner
06/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Minnesota vs LA Angels -131 Loser
06/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs +130 vs Washington Loser
06/12/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Philadelphia vs Washington -1.5/-125 Loser
06/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Detroit vs NY Yankees -115 Loser
06/10/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Golden State vs Cleveland -2 Loser
06/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Oakland vs Milwaukee -125 Winner
06/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -170 vs Cincinnati Winner
06/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Atlanta vs San Diego -140 Loser
06/06/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Houston vs Texas -105 Winner
06/05/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets vs Miami -155 Winner
06/04/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Oakland vs Houston -127 Winner
06/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Colorado vs San Diego -137 Winner
06/02/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Francisco -1.5/-115 vs Atlanta Winner
06/01/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cincinnati vs Colorado -1.5/+105 Loser
05/31/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-115 Loser
05/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs -140 Winner
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Miami Marlins -150 vs. Atlanta Braves Loser
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play White Sox vs. Royals -115 Winner
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Astros vs Angels +120 Loser
05/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 Loser
05/27/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Pittsburgh vs Texas -139 Loser
05/25/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Chicago Cubs -160 vs Saint Louis Winner
05/24/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Diego vs San Francisco -1.5/+105 Winner
05/22/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Seattle -145 vs Cincinnati Winner
05/21/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -150 vs San Francisco Loser
05/21/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Cleveland -4 vs Toronto Loser
05/21/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Saint Louis vs San Jose -150 Loser
05/20/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Atlanta vs Philadelphia -165 Loser
05/19/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Saint Louis vs San Jose -145 Winner
05/16/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Minnesota vs Detroit -160 Winner
05/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Pittsburgh vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-130 Winner
05/13/2016 MLB No Limit Play - White Sox -137 vs NY Yankees Winner
05/12/2016 NHL No Limit Play - Nashville vs San Jose -171 Winner
05/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Saint Louis -132 vs LA Angels Winner
05/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play - San Diego vs Chicago Cubs -1.5/-110 Loser
05/07/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Washington vs Chicago Cubs -130 Winner
05/05/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Miami vs. Toronto -4 Push
05/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play - New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles -120 Winner
05/03/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -185 vs. Pirates Winner
05/02/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Cleveland Cavaliers -2 and San Antonio -2/5.5 points teaser Loser
04/30/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Detroit -120 vs. Minnesota Winner
04/29/2016 MLB No Limit Play - LA Angels -120 vs. Texas Loser
04/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Week - White Sox vs. Baltimore -130 Winner
04/28/2016 MLB No Limit Play Favorite Game of the Week - Miami vs. LA Dodgers -122 Loser
04/27/2016 NBA No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year Charlotte vs Miami -5/-121 Loser
04/26/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Milwaukee vs. Cubs -1.5/-105 Loser
04/24/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Baltimore vs. Kansas City Royals -152 Winner
04/23/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Cubs -158 vs. Cincinnati Loser
04/20/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Charlotte vs Miami -4/-120 Winner
04/16/2016 NBA No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Houston vs Golden State -13 Winner
04/14/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Baltimore vs. Texas -132 Winner
04/11/2016 MLB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Milwaukee vs. Saint Louis -1.5/+135 Winner
04/10/2016 MLB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - Boston vs. Toronto -123 Winner
04/09/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Pirates vs. Reds +1.5/-135 Winner
04/08/2016 MLB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Month - Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona +1.5/-135 Winner
04/07/2016 NBA No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - San Antonio vs. Golden State -5 Winner
04/06/2016 MLB No Limit Play - Houston vs. NY Yankees -125 Winner
04/05/2016 MLB No Limit Play - NY Mets -114 vs. Kansas City Winner
04/04/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Championship Game - Villanova +2.5 vs. North Carolina Winner
04/02/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Oklahoma +2 vs. Villanova Loser
04/01/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Morehead State vs. Nevada -180 ML Winner
03/31/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Week - George Washington +2 vs. Valparaiso Winner
03/27/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Syracuse +8 vs. Virginia Winner
03/26/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Oklahoma +1 vs. Oregon Winner
03/25/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Gonzaga vs. Syracuse +4.5 Winner
03/24/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Miami vs. Villanova -4 Winner
03/23/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Month - Vermont vs. Nevada -3 Winner
03/22/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Saint Mary`s vs. Valparaiso -3 Winner
03/21/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Week - George Washington vs. Monmouth -2 Loser
03/20/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Shocker Game of the Year - Wisconsin vs. Xavier -4 Loser
03/19/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - Indiana +3 vs. Kentucky Winner
03/18/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Destroyer Game of the Year - Stephen F. Austin +7 vs. West Virginia Winner
03/17/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Arkansas-Little Rock +9 vs. Purdue Winner
03/16/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Month - Houston vs. Georgia Tech -3 Winner
03/12/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Memphis vs. Connecticut -5 Winner
03/11/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Colorado State vs. Fresno State -3 Winner
03/08/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Game of the Year - Creighton vs. Seton Hall -1.5 Winner
03/08/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Gonzaga -2 vs. Saint Mary`s Winner
03/07/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - East Tennessee State vs. Chattanooga -3 Winner
03/06/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Iona -2 vs Siena Winner
03/05/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - George Washington vs Davidson -1 Winner
03/04/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Ball State vs Northern Illinois -3.5 Winner
03/03/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play of the Year - Illinois vs Maryland -15 Winner
03/02/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Chicago vs Orlando -4 Winner
03/02/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Mississippi State vs Ole Miss -5 Winner
03/01/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Central Michigan vs Ball State -130 Loser
02/28/2016 NHL No Limit Play - LA Kings vs Anaheim -130 Winner
02/28/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Colorado State vs Nevada -2 Winner
02/27/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Furman vs Western Carolina -1 Winner
02/26/2016 NBA No Limit Play - LA Clippers -3 vs Sacramento Winner
02/25/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Houston vs Portland -3 Loser
02/24/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Villanova vs Xavier +1.5 Winner
02/23/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play - Rhode Island vs Davidson -3 Winner
02/19/2016 NBA No Limit Play - Detroit vs Washington -1 Winner
02/16/2016 NCAAB No Limit Play Invincible Game of the Year - Michigan vs Ohio State -1.5 Winner